Another related example is the recent charge that Diners Club implemented to move their points into airline mileage programs.

something else missing from the analysis are miles sold by airlines for cash, whether via credit card operators, to mortgage companies, etc. These also dilute the value of existing miles, even if the airline receives a fair compensation for them.

The number of miles outstanding at each carrier increases each year at a rate well in excess of the increase in award capacity. This is going to lead to a big problem.

Since I don't have status, miles are worth a little over a penny to me and I have therefor shifted to cash rebate credit cards. I still have them linked to iDine and still collect points but I am realistic about their value.

If the airlines are making money from selling miles to other firms, they should be viewing award seats as pre-paid tickets. Unfortunately, many (most) of them do not have this view and it shows in the difficulty redeeming awards on a number of airlines.

One thing that has not been mentioned is that the vast majority of individuals have a limited amount of time they can vacation. Most also have monetary considerations for the part of the trip that can't be paid for with miles/points. This would tend to limit the number of awards a single individual or family can redeem (unless people give a substantial number of awards away to others). While the number of miles issued has been increasing faster than award seat availability, I would suggest that miles issued are also increasing faster than the capability of people to use them. This is a good thing, actually, as it would tend to dampen at least somewhat the demand for additional award seats. Adding another 100,000 miles to the account of someone who already has 2 million miles is not going to make a big difference in the ability of someone else to get an award ticket.

However, as I mentioned earlier, as the value perception of a mile decreases, more people are likely to fly the airline with the lowest priced tickets, regardless of FF miles. As the value of a mile declines, people may choose suddenly to cash in their miles for award trips where they would have previously purchased tickets. When this occurs, the game will be over and the system will implode.

Excellent analysis MileKing.

Even as a Platinum member on NW I'm unable to get award seats to Europe for the summer even though I am quite flexible on dates. My analysis is that the (cost of the ticket)/(award mileage needed + miles on paid ticket) is less than 2 cents per mile. Even though Northwest may sell miles for 2 cents per mile, they will not release award seats - its like the airlines want to eat the cake (namely sell miles) and have it too (not release award inventory for standard awards). And their agents are quick to point out that the award seats are available using twice the number of miles. So already the airlines are starting to devalue the miles.

[This message has been edited by PG (edited 05-07-2002).]

I am new to FlyerTalk Miles, but I retired in 2001 (age 43). My wife and I lived in Hawaii for three years, We haven't had any problems procuring FF seats with Delta traveling to our our house in Virginia. Since coming to ILL, we have traveled to Texas, and other places. We are traveling to Hawaii in July 02 using FF miles, we requested the FF tickets in April 02 and were immediately told seats were available. I am Delta Gold and my wife is Delta Silver. Life is good.

retired at 43, lived in Hawaii for 3 years and no problem ever booking DL award tickets
maddog, are you for real?

I mean I believe the retiring and Hawaii part, but seriously, DL was easy to book on? That is the whole reason I left them in the first place- could never get upgrades nor award seats. AF Rouge has treated me better than DL Gold has.

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If It's Such a Small World Then Why Have I been Sitting on this Airplane for Twelve Hours?

Requalify

Yes,it is true. I was told by a Delta rep to call after midnight on FF mile seats, normally I will call around 4:00am.

I have a somewhat different view than that posted by many in this thread. Since airline tickets are quite inexpensive now, and since mileage redemption levels are likely (in my opinion) to stay constant, ticket price inflation means that frequent flyer points will be more valuable later than they are now. So I am tending to buy tickets now and save points for later. I know there is a risk that they will diminish in value. There is a greater chance, in my opinion, that they will increase.

As an extension of this thread related to my previous posts, I'm curious as to how many award tickets FlyerTalker's redeem in a "typical" calendar year. I'm not talking about upgrade awards where a ticket is purchased, but simply awards redeemed for a free seat on an airplane (coach, BC, or FC).

For myself, over the past 6 years I have redeemed from as few as 2 to as many 6 award tickets per calendar year. My average is about 4.

requalifly,

you had problems booking award tickets on Delta to Hawaii? In Coach?

I have never had trouble booking coach award seats on Delta (though I am rarely travelling to popular destinations, Dayton, OH anyone??). And, my brother, his wife and my parents have all been able to book awward tickets to Hawaii, in coach, on two weeks notice at 4 different times in the past three years.

For some reason, getting awards seats on Delta to Hawaii seems very easy. (To Dayton, OH i it's ridiculously easy! :P )

As far as I can rememember I redeemed as follows over the past years (excl. upgrades), if anyone cares:

2002:
1 x Return - within Europe - Y
1 x OneWay - within Europe - Y

2001:
1 x RT - within Europe - Y
1 x OW - within Europe - Y
1 x RT - Europe-Asia - C

2000:
5 RT - within Europe - Y
2 RT - Europe-Asia - C
1 RT - Europe-USA - F

Can't fully remember previous years, but not more than three a year.

Cheers, Hajo

Basically, we, as frequent flyers, are allowing a third entity control the value of our assets (miles).

The airlines are in control to value / devalue the miles by [DIRECTLY] raising / lowering milage requirements or [INDIRECTLY] reducing number of award seats.

At some point the balance of outstanding mileage in airline programs will become too tempting not to devalue. This is easy profit to regain at any time. This will happen at the 'appropriate time.'

I strongly encourage everyone to keep using their mileage as it makes sense.

I'd like to see some stats on the percentage of FF requests denied that were made 11 months out.

Like Maddog, my in-laws have never had a problem booking awards - but they book everything (especially Hawaii) 11 months out. Some FTers complain about not getting seats, but they aren't willing to plan far enough ahead. If you want flexibility, you've got to pay cash. If you want the award, you have to book as far out as possible.

Regarding the unused miles stat: The chart in The Economist article didn't reveal what serious FTers know - that millions of miles will never be redeemed because those accounts will never get enough miles for an award. Just like everything else ... 20% of flyers redeem 80% of the awards.

QUOTE by Family Flyer

"Like Maddog, my in-laws have never had a problem booking awards - but they book everything (especially Hawaii) 11 months out. Some FTers complain about not getting seats, but they aren't willing to plan far enough ahead. If you want flexibility, you've got to pay cash. If you want the award, you have to book as far out as possible".


Why do I HAVE to pay cash if I want the crazy flexability of not having to book nearly a year in advance? How about the airlines making miles meaningful by actually having more award seats available? I think you are cutting the airlines way too much slack on this issue.


[This message has been edited by Shinkansen (edited 05-12-2002).]

I would also have to confer as when I plan with notice, seats are not available. However, if I want to leave tomorrow, there is always a seat- even if not my desired routing or on a partner instead.

I use the miles for tickets with less than 7 days notice for the best results because afterall, how many people are paying full fare lately? These are the highest charges and the best use of the miles.

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"Fly me to the moon and let me earn alot of miles."