The market appears to "believe" that HP will get the loan guarantees.

I say ... let's start a contest or pool or something.

Guess the date HP files for Chapter 11! Winner gets two CO drink coupons from me, or maybe the FT masters could come up with something. In case of a tie, first to post with date gets it.

To protect my drinks, I submit: 1/16/2002.

And ... no editing your post like I just did. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

[This message has been edited by ontheroad (edited 12-27-2001).]

?????????? The stock has gone from $30 in 1998 to around $10 before you know when. Down 4% to $2.60 today. The value of a share today is less then a "Happy Meal" at McDonalds.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif Sad, but true. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif

[This message has been edited by snake (edited 12-27-2001).]

ontheroad -

I reserve Friday 4-Jan-2002. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

dAAvid -

I'm in Reno and America West is one of the few remaining airlines with reasonable schedules to PHX - I have had plenty of problems with them with cancelled & delayed flights, but I have nothing but praise for the way they treated me when I was stuck in ABQ on Sept 11th - they got me from ABQ to PHX, arranged a 'disaster rate' room for the night and then got me back to RNO the following day; personally I hope that they can get the bailout they need to stay in business - I'd rather fly HP than "South-Worst"

Wednesday, January 2, 2002 would be a good bet if HP doesn't hear from the NTSB. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/rolleyes.gif

p.s. Chapter 11, I would expect, and keep flying, hoping for a change of heart from the loan board. If they don't go Chapter 11 soon I wouldn't rule out Chapter 7 at a later date.

p.p.s. snake doesn't drink, so he's not entering the contest for the CO coupons.

[This message has been edited by snake (edited 12-28-2001).]

It'll take longer than you think. first they need to get an answer from the loan board. They'll be turned down. Then McCain has to posture and bluster for awhile, while at the same time HP execs will be both threatening bankruptcy, and working every source of money they can. Plus, based on the cash position they seem to have right now according to this article:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011227/n2738179_1.html

they are not bleeding as bad as we thought.

my guess? april 12, 2002

I don't think they will keep flying during ch 11. I think they will be grounded, and their pax stranded (perhaps competitors will let pax use HP tix, though.)

Right to the last second they will be selling tix and trying to get people to fly.

A look at a past airline shutdown: Braniff's final hours

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif Sad, but true. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif

jyuu I don't quarrel with Snake's point about the decline in the value of HP stock from around $30 to around $2.40. I was only suggesting that the current price has some possibility factored in that the loan guarantees will be approved and that is why the stock hasn't tanked even more.

No news is bad news, HP stock dropped another 5% today.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif. Sad, but true. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif

hobson: Why don't you put what I said in quotes, insted of my quote of your words that I included in my post. it might make things clearer to the readers.

There's always a possibility that the loan guarantees will be approved, thats why the stock is worth so much more then zero.


[This message has been edited by snake (edited 12-28-2001).]

This just in:

Press Release Issued December 28, 2001 8:32:00 PM ET
America West Receives Conditional Approval for Loan Guarantees

Full text of this press release available at:
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/mi...01639955&EDATE

[QUOTE]Originally posted by snake:


hobson: Why don't you put what I said in quotes, insted of my quote of your words that I included in my post. it might make things clearer to the readers.

Point well taken. My only excuse is that my cat was walking over my keyboard at that point in time and I got a little distracted!

Congratulations, boys and girls. You now own a chunk of America Worst.

http://signonsandiego.com/news/busin...lineloans.html

So does this mean it is now my patriotic duty to fly America Worst?

Ugggh.

33%!!Why didn't they shoot for 66%, heck, even 99% That would really protect (Enhance) us taxpayers. ¿Como no?

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif Man, it's gonna be pure entertainment, I love it. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

hobson: ever think of using the "edit" button to correct after your cat walks?