When will the Bubble burst?
 

I like most people on this forum consider myself to be a saavy and astute traveler. I like many people on this forum am a mileage junkie. Seems we never have enough and always want more. I have not as many as some, but many more than most and yet the game goes on.
In this day and age of too many miles chasing too few available Award Seats on flights it has become frustrating for many to be successful in using their miles. Most airlines are struggling at best and some have questionable futures. Yet the quest for more miles goes on.
Airlines are striving to figure a way to survive in this new age of flying, but yet all the major Airlines and Credit Card Companies continue to woo the masses with more Mileage advertisiments in promoting their particular Airline or Credit Card.
Seems to me like the Airlines have a tiger by the tail and can't hang on and can't let go. On the one hand, they have to keep their programs in tack in some fashion, while on the other they continue to encourage it to grow bigger, and have even more miles chase the same seats. Seems that in their endeavors to develope a mileage program, they may inadvertently and by accident create one of the biggest Ponzi programs on record.
Credit Card companies of course like to promote their product for the interest income and the service fees from the particiating merechants. Airlines of course enjoy to receive the cash that is generated to them by the Credit Card Companies when someone transfers miles into the Airline FF program.
Where will it all end. Will the Bubble eventually burst?

See also Monetarism, Point Inflation, and the Coming Devaluation and the recent Mileage "retirement account".

I agree and I do not agree. Allow me to state my reasons. The key is not earning of miles, the key is the redemption of miles/points. Mileage junkies like you and me and other Gurus on this FT board have figured out the ins and out of the system.

The airlines/credit card companies and other creators of this currency know that all their customers are not that savvy in redemption of these points. That is why they are betting that the bubble will not burst.

You see most people will not try to cash an award till they have reached the 25K miles and then they realize that they neeed 35K miles because their is no availability. How many times you have seen a post from newbies thinking they need only 2000 or 3000 miles to get an award. I wonder how many of those people were able to redeem.

I have a simple rule. I want to redeem as many miles as soon as possible. I get nervous if my mileage balances grow faster than my redemption.

Here is an example of the mileage bubble. RT flight from PHL-TUS $227 on CO earns 227 miles on AMEX MR and apx 5500 onepass miles. The 5000 miles are worth about $150 for an AMTRAK 1 zone NE corridor unreserved redemption. I would redeem 5 of those redemptions before trying for an airline redemption on CO/DL/NW. the reason is simple. The air ticket redemption is worth $400 to me ( 1.6 cents/mile). The Amtrak route is worth $750 to me. Besides, I can redeem everytime I have 5000 miles. I sometimes wonder how many people outside of FT know about it.

So either one get the PHL-TUS trip for $75 and paid the $150 for the AMTRAK ticket. Or the Amtrak ticket was free for every PHL-TUS trip! Either way, the genie is out of the bag. If more people (ab)used the system as every good FTer then the bubble might burst! Otherwise, we will go on as any other ecosystem, blind leading the blind!

Bubble??, what bubble????
 

The NonePass®-Amtrak conversion is just too good to be true, I just did a long distance choo-choo trip, 5 days and nights, deluxe sleeper, including meals for me & my squeezer (good thing it don't include booze) for 40K miles/points.

For about the milage I get from four cheapo transcons (less then $900) yielded an amtrak ticket that would have cost $2,900!! :)

I just gotta hope that the bubble don't burst before I burn some more of them NonePass® miles.

[QUOTE= Last edited by snake : Today at 3:43 am. Reason: posting while drunk QUOTE]

:D :D :D

For me it's starting to unravel. Have been earned gold or higher on one airline or another since 1992, but this year I may well only go silver. Unredeemed miles peaked around 400K in 2001 but are down to around 120K now. Have been burning faster than I earn.

Part of it is fatigue with all the security measures and other additional hassles of recent years. Part is over-familiarity with some of the domestic mileage-run targets. Part is irritation with excessive taxes and fees on airline tickets, rental cars and hotels; these tend to discourage the more frequent short-haul mileage runs/getaway weekends in favor of longer hauls.

But the airlines really get the brunt of the blame. Too many takebacks, too many new fees, not flying up front enough, uncertainty over bankruptcy and, with UA, problems with online booking and bad sale fare availability. Also too many RJs, taking upgrades out of the picture. The value of both the elite status and the FF programs continues to get chipped away at, as travelers get nickel-and-dimed to death. It's all playing into the hands of the LCCs, who continue to gain market share.

the circle of life... and miles death?
 

Herein lies the reason why you may often see the Marathon Man endorsing the use of any scam, scheme or tricky-dick dealio to make it easier for us customers to both obtain and redeem miles! This is the exact reason why I hate marketing managers sometimes. They try to rope you in with deals they KNOW you cannot complete and when you do, they screw them up so nothing posts on time, and if you get past that gauntlet, they either change the program or tell you it wasnt intended to be used in this way and all that crap. If you figure even more out, you are hated by them and no loyalty is given anyway! (Consider our use of gift cards and how this altered things) I mean, the marketing managers are geniuses, but in doing this stuff to the fellow person to the degree in which mile-offering companies seem to push it beyond the limits that any other entity does these days is so bad, ya know?

To legally dupe, mislead, and rip the masses off while saying, "well, that's business" allll the freakin' time is soooo....

It's so: "current-administration-that-really-needs-to-change!" of them all! Anyone get me here?... The attitude of this sort of thing is standard now, and it's growing. It comes from the top and trickles down. It is affecting customer service and it is affecting miles and promotions. It's like OK for companies to not follow through on the fine print terms and screw their own customers over knowing we'll come back for more next time! Everything is like a rebate scam.

Anyway, I figure the only way out of the mess one often finds themselves in when holding a bunch of these miles is to (A) be very very savvy and know the system (and write tons of complaint letters), and (B) to be as agressive and down right wrong right back at them! As I said, I have no boundaries when it comes to miles and the dealings with whichever company at which I gain or redeem them. It's not like stock market schemes where real money is involved--yet (but I did recently receive a frequent flier excise tax in Sprint after getting 5,000 United miles! That was $5.40cents! wow... it's COMING!)

The only program we all use here that I respect and choose not to screw with is Starwood! And they dont screw most people like me either. That's because they actually allow customers to ALWAYS use the points. Their points have VALUE. They respect this. If a room is available in the place, you can pay for it or use points. You have a choice. You have to knows some things but it is much easier to ramp up and do this. Not true for the airlines and most other programs I know of or participate in. I have redeemed but what a crock it can be, huh? Everyone else has lottery-like restrictions that are borderline fraud, in my mind!

I see it this way: if it all crashes, it will be because these companies start breaking some serious laws that affect those who make them. We are almost there, mates! be forewarned and cash in now. When I earn, I burn.(And yet, little old me only has certain cards and programs right now so I am slowly working on it but cannot even do what I preach just yet... yet.)

:mad: MM

I replied to a thread in the AA forum to a post where someone had said that he had been having trouble upgrading while traveling through AA hubs and that AA should put more seats "up front", the way TWA had done.

I responded that maybe that was one reason why TWA went bankrupt.

I got some responses disagreeing with me A LOT..!!

I have come to the conclusion that many members of ff programs, elite flyers especially, are in denial when it comes to airline economics.

In the near term, I agree that the frequent flier programs are cash generators for airlines.

Airlines make money off of their frequent flier programs by selling miles to other companies (car rental, hotel, phone, internet, etc, etc). So it is a positive cash flow for airlines.

But--normally, when a company sells a product--it has incurred its production costs to sell their product to you before you buy it--and usually the company has no further obligation to you except in a warranty.

But airlines are selling miles that for the most part are to be redeemed for future air travel. They may have had some sales cost associated with selling miles to other companies, but the biggest part of their liability to the ultimate consumer of those miles is off in the future somewhere.

I saw today the "deal" where people can use different kinds of stored value cards and earn points by "charging up" their stored value cards with a point earning credit card. I calculated from the one program using a Citi AA card can earn miles at a cost of 0.3 cents or 3 tenths of cent each.

Now that there are like 9 trillion miles out there in frequent flier accounts. When does the concept of inflation hit frequent flier programs?

It has got to sooner or later--if someone is getting 3 ff miles for 1 penny and it takes 90,000 miles to get a business class seat to Europe, then $300 will get you a seat to Europe which AA would sell for $3900--.

The airlines are selling miles and incurring a future liability where the airline can arbitrarily modify the value of the points it has already sold.

IMHO--the big awakening will occur when one of the major carriers goes under and their ff program is not picked up by another airline. Then all of the hoarded miles become worthless--or even worse--

What if in the US situation, a shutdown occurs and the alliance carriers refuse to fully honor all the award tickets that are now or have been booked in the past few months for travel next year by all those mile hoarding US Dividend Miles members?

It will be the first time a major airline ff program will default on its ff benefits and promises.

Once people start to see that the benefits of those ff miles are not guaranteed ---or they get a dose of severe devaluation when the airlines increase the mileage requirement for a trip or severely restrict the available supply of award seats--it will be like the banking crisis in 1933--a rush to redeem---

I can't help comparing frequent flier miles to S&H Green Stamps. Perhaps I am wrong--but whatever issues caused Green Stamps to fade away will also eventually happen to ff miles.

Being able to accumulate miles such that you can get an award seat for less than 1/10 th of the cost of what you could buy it for without ever stepping on an airplane until you cash in for an award tells me something "ain't" right.....

If you want to see the "head in the sand" mentality of frequent fliers--take a look at the AA forum over the next couple of days.

Rumors are out that AA is going to institute some type of "co-payment" in order to upgrade from the back of the bus....er, umm---I mean plane..

If you ever wanted to see an example of the entitlement class--you'll see it there....

They're baaack!!!!!
 

"S&H greenpoints is the digital reincarnation of S&H Green Stamps"

It just ain't the same, "no more licking and sticking" :D

I have seen them. They have lousy shopping partners--and the one thing that I do shop for regularly--food--I don't live near one of their limited list of grocery stores.

Used to be you could go around the corner of just about any city in the country and buy groceries and get green stamps.

Now you have to go online and buy a computer part or a television...!

Didn't that used to be the kind of stuff you would turn in your books of green stamps to get as a prize...?.... :D

a run on the bank + more of my far fetched theories...
 

WHEN US Air goes under (not if) I will be ready! I plan to be for all these FFPs. We unloaded all our US Air miles seeing as how we have United accts. Not that they are A list or anything, but at least they plan to stick around a little longer. Only my mother has 24,506 miles on the defunct carrier right now and I seriously believe US Airways is going to die out soon (check today's WSJ to see more--it's front page again). Anyway, we are doing some dining for miles for her this week and soon she will have 25k. With that, we have a free ticket to someplace soon. That's gonna be one ticket reservation we can make on a United plane and if US Air goes under, UAL will honor it because we will have the E ticket and UAL ref code, etc. Of course, if wanted to make any changes they could not be done, whereas if US Air is still alive by the time we fly, these would be possible for std. fees. We shall see. But the point of this is for us to redeem and be poised to redeem at all times.

I try to keep myself poised just in case... My AA is growing because I have the citi AAdvantage card. Stored valued cards worked nicely for me and yet, even without them, I know the miles can be converted to HHilton points if the Sh** hits the fan. And I suspect that even if programs start to disappear, hotel ones would be at least among the last ones to do so. We have lots of other miles in the family but they are poised and ready… If these programs start to go away, which I think they are slowly doing, then we will be set to redeem. Again, I am trying to be positioned to burn ‘em immediately! You all should too, whether you have 25k, 50k or 500,000k.

Get yourself positioned to redeem on the drop of a dime! That's the key. Know the routes and possible places you can fly and be ready. The times, they are a changin'...
All of this great change/phase out stuff these airlines are doing reminds me of the way things changed on college campuses in the 1980s, when I was at UMASS. Things drastically changed in terms of drinking alcohol. Now that is very different from miles but remember, this is about taking away things people want because they enjoy it too much! Towns, states and schools successfully worked in conjunction and their efforts slowly changed policies and rules across the board. Their cooperation was enormous and relentless. Even the varying drinking ages and DWI legalities in many states and in many colleges changed rapidly so that in the course of a few years, the freshmen coming in could not even fathom that there were once keg parties in the dorms on their floors or in many school apartments off campus. People that used to throw these parties were now on the staff of officials set out to bust you for having one! And yet, we all used to enjoy them regularly. One really arcane policy was enacted in the town of my school in those days whereas if a party that was happening on your lawn were to spill into the street, you could be arrested for drinking on town property. I saw a student trip off the curb onto the sidewalk for a split second at one party and because he had a beer in his hand, the police, who were now watching every move at every party promptly hauled him away. He was 21 but still got fined. The house renter, who was a student also, got a big fine as well and to me, that is ultra-conservative thinking and way too sick for my blood! Needless to say, people started to want to have such parties less and less over time. The plan worked... for everyone but the students. And now, in my opinion, kids who should have learned the rules of life and how to combat mistakes and setbacks while in college--where you need to figure out how to make choices when you are young-- are now making these mistakes in the corporate world and in their family life. This is a whole other topic but my point is that the watchdog mentality of restriction and policy changes that took away freedoms of enjoyment made us less able to grow and live life. Now, with ebay police watching your award sales, corporate rebate scams on the rise and partnership screw ups that post your points too late or make you purchase 1,000 miles for $30+ because your account is short 1 mile when you want to redeem, we have fee-heavy bitter companies that do not want us to enjoy travel and the freedom of living our lives as we choose to. So many choose to bail out before even redeeming these miles. Many choose to not travel as much. Things go DOWN. I am responsible for my own actions but I am being forced to pay as though I had hired someone else to take care of things even though I don’t want them too. It downright stinks.

Similar to the shameful end of such events enjoyed by the masses, existing mileage programs with liberal ways of both earning and burning are slowly becoming a thing of the past. At least the redemption part is getting harder and harder to enjoy and some equate this to a scam! They lure you in with promises, and if you partake, you are done! Sure, it's my choice to obtain the miles or to buy a beer, but there is really something wrong here. Even responsible users are feeling the crunch and it's not just because of a bunch of bad guys. We are all considered bad guys because we actually have the nerve to contact an airline to--gasp--try to redeem out points!

Because of this, the airlines and other official industry factions are creating exactly what they planned in the grand design of things: They are making us, the consumer feel the pain of "imbibing" and participating in any of the very same mileage-earning programs they actually came up with! Sure, the lure is easy, but just like stumbling onto the street of a no drinking zone recently designated in your local college town, we are feeling the crackdown at every turn. I am certain the programs will go away eventually and the sick rules about redemptions and fees are a clear sign of it. Stop us from using those miles is the only way for the creators to survive. That, or liquidate and set off a whole chain of events that could crumble the foundation of all things "free."

Let's hope we have a bit more time to plan out the funeral than we did with say, United breaking its partnership redemption ties with Hilton. I recall frantically transferring miles at 11pm one night to get them in on time. Let's get out of town and fast--and that means get on a plane and fly now! Party's almost over, man!

;) MM

Continental to Amtrak
 

How did you do this? Just talked to CO and they claim there's no agreement with Amtrak and I've got a ton of miles to burn. Appreciate your help

knowing little about whether it works both ways, you should check this thread entitled - Does CO->Amtrak->UA really work? - in the MilesBuzz! forum

This thread is located at:
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showt...0&goto=newpost

We don't call it NonePass® for nothin'
 

Typical clueless Continental phone agent. :rolleyes:

This is a key point. There are no real costs to speak of until you redeem you miles, and who knows if that will actually happen. Until then, the obligation shows up as a liability.

There's no inherent reason why you couldn't make a good business out of this if you were conservative, but the financial pressure to undervalue the accumulated FF miles (the liability) must be tremendous.

SPG all the way!!!!
 

I agree 100%. This is the one program that I respect and accumulate points in whenever possible. I use the SPG Amex and only convert the points into miles to top off an account at the time of use. "Borderline fraud" is a good way to describe the capacity controls. I think that they should be forthright with the way the controls work and tell the public the minimum number of award seats for a given plane (it can depend on the plane size or whatever) and tell how many that are taken. I think that some flights actually have no seats available at all and they are later released if the airline "feels like it."

I have NEVER been turned down for a room in a Starwood hotel. With flights, I rarely get the first choice date and often get nothing. Though, strangely enough, I actually just redeemed some "Nonepass" miles and got the first choice dates. Of course, I am booking 7 months out.....

I think that the explanation for the whole thing is that the programs have to have some "controlling factor". For Starwood, it is in the earning. Save for a small bonus here and there, there are not easy ways to gain large amounts of points quickly as there are for airline miles. For all of the others, they give tons of bonuses and the controlling factor is the redemption. I just spent $150 for a flight to Florida and got about 10k miles for a 1,000 mile flight after the triple miles, online booking bonus, and some other bonuses were done. If you spent $150 at a SPG hotel, you would get 300 points, maybe if you were lucky, a 500 point bonus or something, but nowhere near the bonuses that the airlines are dealing out.

If too many people transfer their miles to Hilton - or other hotel plans - you'll find that option closing very quickly. Just ask all the million-milers from LatinPass

hanging in the balance...
 

indeed... sadly, that is so true, aint it?

Hence, plan 2:

maintain all my accounts in such a way where the bal's are always at award levels I can redeem (for example, if 50k is econ to Europe, have 50k, not 48,751 or something like that.)

be aware and ready and when the run on the bank to transfer points or redeem comes up, take it when you must (like when the United===>Hilton so abruptly left us...)

then re-tool all thinking on that particular miles or points program, cancel any cards and ties to it, end relationships being done with it that may have otherwise continued to grow... If I have the AA Master Card, I would then think twice about keeping it active. I would close the account, pay off the final bal and move to another source of points and miles yeilding activity.

Cards like AA MC would lose customers, thereby losing business, thereby feeling threatened to change even more or maybe even go under, and other ones would gain business. AA MC would offer new loyalty incentives if it could and if not, the whole shooting match begins to erode and somehow the industry is able to pull off the end of all things loyalty rewards programs! But it is unlikely it will take place because they'd all have to collectively cooperate at the same time.

Either way, my advice is to get out now, as soon as you can, or be ready to at as close to a moment's notice as freakin' possible--if only to not give anyone the satisfaction that you had, say, 3,000 points or miles left over unused somewhere!

That is how I live my miles life. The only other thing that currently gives me the same kind of willies and makes me live as if I am constantly hanging in the balance even for a short period is watching the Boston Red Sox take on the Yankees next week should they sweep tonight and the Yankees win 2 more as well. I mean, we could beat 'em this time but I think I will be calling in sick a few times next week because I will be too frazzeled at the office anyway. Oct 17, 2003 and the days that followed were very dark, dark times indeed. I felt like I had just lost hundreds of thousands of miles! Fortunately the Patriots won again and winter time is ski season. This was kind of like getting a brand new Starwood card in the mail with a sweet 10K start up bonus offer, and then some!

;)MM

I too am concerned about the huge ff liabilities bankrupt or near bankrupt carriers have. I have always been a mile burner, but there is only so much vacation I can schedule with excess mileage. I have no choice but to sit with roughly 50,000 to 100,000 miles in 6 legacy carrier accounts in 2005. In my gradual cashing out, so to speak, I am switching over all my ff credit cards to cash back type cards. The Costco AMEX 3%meals-2%rental cars & hotels-1% everything else and the CITI MC 5% back on gasoline have replaced the BofA DM card and UA bankcard. Worldperks Visa and AA MC will be next. AMEX Skymiles will probaby be the last one, due to double miles promotions.
My wife will be shocked, but I will probably start bringing home the Kellogg cereals with savings bonds certs instead of AA mileage certs.

Outoftown

I do not have huge balances in the programs, probably between the six airlines' programs I am in, I have less than 150k total miles. Since the decline in my business travel, I simply do not accumumate them at the same rate. I put most points from credit cards in SPG and just do not worry about it. I do not spend any extra money to get miles except for the $30 annual fee for SPG Amex. At this time, I have received enough free travel from miles and points, that if I lost every mile and point that I now have, I would still be way ahead of the game and I would not at all regret having played the miles game. I am not a person to take mileage runs to get points, though I may take a trip that I want to take anyway if the points are good - it was worth it for the trip alone. So as disheartening as it would be to lose miles, I do not worry about it. If I get miles, I get them, when I need to use them, I do. I do not see them as a travel 401k, they are simply an available pool to buy airline tickets and hotels whenever I want to take a trip.

As far as funnelling miles to Hilton from AA if AA were to be under fire, I assume that, as others said, that this door will close. Hilton used to take miles from CO, DL, NW, and UA but all of those doors have been closed. I dumped some orphan miles to Hilton right before they closed.

AA's conversion to the HH certs has sometimes been hit or miss. I always send them a fax and then follow up with a phone call after a reasonable time. Sometimes, they do not process the request for 2-3 weeks.

I suspect if there was a "run" on AA miles, they would institute the French equivalent of allowing import of Toyotas only at a very small French port!

As Snake put it quite adequately, many of the CSR are clueless about their own rules and regulations. We the FT could teach them about their own rules. Just because a CSR has not done a specific transaction does not mean that it cannot be done legally.

Let's also not forget that the first baby boomers hit 62 in 2008 and 65 in 2011. We'll get a tidal wave of retirements starting in seven years or so. How many of those people had high-travel jobs where they banked a lot more miles than they spent while working? Methinks quite a few envision using them to travel in retirement, and that could be what really accelerates the airlines devaluing the miles. We already have a stealth devaluation in that "unrestricted" awards are often all that is available (a particular complaint with CO but also with others). Instead of 25/50 we'll get 30/60, 35/70, and so on (i.e. you won't get the award at 35,000 that you can't get for 25,000 today). Or they could always create the "We really mean it" unrestricted tier for 3 times the lowest amount and try to do it that way.

In any case, it'll be like dealing with an inflated currency.

A year or two after the airline shakeout and one or two majors go under. Less competition will make loyalty programs less attractive to the survivors. IMHO :(

Game over, man!
 

Sadly, the allure of status, miles/points, and FF programs in general seems to be coming to a rapid end. In the past few years, I've seen the value of my miles deflate from 2 cents to around 1.3 cents each. Increases in award redemption costs and new surcharges on awards, upgrades, and just about anything else the major airlines offer promises to dilute the value of miles even further.

Somewhere in a long lost FlyerTalk thread I noted that at some point (when mile value closed in on 1 cent) I would need to re-evaluate my use of mileage earning credit cards as 1% cashback would be worth more than a mile valued at 1 cent. That day has come quicker than I imagined. All of my grocery charges now go on my 5% back Citi Platinum Dividend card (no annual fee) and my gas charges go the same way.

I used to have status in many of the airline FF programs and hotel programs. At one point, I was UA 1K, AA Platinum, US Gold, CO Gold, SPG Platinum, and HHonors Diamond at the same time due to special offers, extensive business travel, and mileage runs. Now I only retain AA Gold (lifetime), SPG Gold, and HHonors Diamond. In February, the SPG Gold will be gone too. Do I miss the statuses? Yes, but not nearly as much as I thought I would....frankly, I'm not missing out on much. With the dilution of benefits in most all programs and enhanced technology, airline upgrades are the only thing of note I don't have and first class is not what it used to be anyway. Leaving statuses behind gives me the freedom to book the best and lowest priced fights and hotel rooms rather than spending a little (or in some cases a lot) more to stay with a particular hotel or fly a certain airline.

Towards the end of the year, Mrs. MileKing and I will be looking at moving to a nearly full mileage burning mode. We had planned on saving these for travel in retirement (planning on retiring 10 years from now), but with devaluation almost certain to continue, the time to unload is now. The FF game is most certainly over.

Mileking:

I am assuming that 5 % rebate for the Citi Platinum card is on a sliding scale basis. an you please share the details? Thanks

MSP2000

The Citi Platinum Dividend Select card offers 5% back on purchases at grocery stores, drugstores, and gas stations and 1% back on everywhere else. This is NOT on a sliding scale, but is limited to $300 cashback per year. So, for $6000 in grocery charges per year, I'd rather take the $300 than 6000 miles. Go to www.citicards.com for details.

if this is truethen one could seriously argue that the marketers who want us to sign up and get miles for this and that are knowingly committing fraud!

I think so.
that's why I am also in the "two wrongs make it right enough for MM mode"

I will reap, earn, burn and be out safe and done.
hopefully still able to do SPG gigs! they rule.
:)MM

Well aside from the ethical arguments for or against ff programs, from a pure economics perspective, they don't make sense.

I see all kinds of posts on here about people looking for cheap trips for their year end "mileage runs"--or MR's to maintain elite status.

Now--in a perfect world-economically speaking anyway, the only time that you would get on an airplane for a trip is to--well--go somewhere you need to be.

With the ff programs, now you are getting on a plane for the sake of getting on the plane. On a MR, you may travel far distances then turnaround and get on the same plane to fly back home. One of the posters even asked what to say to crew members if they asked him if he wasn't just on the flight to that destination as he boarded the flight in the opposite direction 45 minutes later.

So that pax common sense is asking--"does doing this make sense"..? Of course, everybody says--don't worry about it--everybody does it.

Hmmm....

And--if you read the threads, the other common theme is the book the least costly MR trip to maximize miles.

So, the airlines have set up a system where by their customers can pick and choose their lowest priced offerings--probably flights they are losing money flying--and qualify for the extra elite freebies that cost the airline more money the next year...

What's wrong with this picture....?

..

from a layman's standpoint it is totally whacked and makes no sense. From one who does it, it is perfect savvy which is WHY it is so great!

I think it is done out of necessity--like having to get the next microsoft patch to make sure your computer can survive... and yet, 20 years ago, who even did any of that? And if you are on a mac, its not even needed!

Well, all of this Mileage run stuff makes me think of cars with intermittent windsheild wipers, credit cards and college degrees.

20 years ago, the only cars that had these special and very necessary wipers were luxury models. But how many times have you found it to be both safer and easier to drive and focus on the road BECAUSE your car has these wipers? many auto advocates said that all cars need to have this as a standard, and not just expensive luxury models. It is a matter of necessity.

Credit cards: It used to be a luxury for the rich. i remember when my parents got the first Amex green card. they had the sears card which was big in those days, but then they got the green amex. Wow. like the 1970s... Now, you NEED one to do everything and it had BETTER BE platinum super gold deluxe!

College? Dont even try getting a job at the local machine plant without a master's degree. Now you need a PHD to get most high end jobs, right? Well, almost.

the anti is up but some things have become standard. Like everyone being ABLE to get credit cards, or everyone having those wipers on every kind of car today.

In order to fly and just get the treatment most people think you should get anyway, you HAVE To have status! It is true! Sure, I fly econ a lot and am ok with it, but when you get screwed or something goes wrong, you are worse than the level of the coal shovelers on the Titanic! YOu are last to win back any life out of your experience. BUT if you have status with the airline, at least you may have a leg to stand on to save your self and either keep away from these situations. And if something does go wrong, they havent totally wittled away the value of someone with 100,000 miles being used on a RT fllight sitting in first class with elite status...YET.

And that is why the economics of MRs and other savvy tricks works out so well. If anything, the airlines should at least be given some credit for finding a way to FORCE everyone to not just become well vested in all their poromtions to get miles, but by making it only possible to fly with status and hundreds of thousands of miles on the line ready to use, they have made it so only the elite can fly. they figure that while these people may know all the tricks to get free miles, they are also the smart ones, willing to invest time and money into things, and at least on paper, they look like they HAVE the money to spend, which makes their investors be more willing to float these airlines' needs and let them fly to begin with! Now, if we can all become that luxury level, we all win!

then they will up the anti again, right?
right.

thanks for the tips
 

My thanks to many of you.

First, thanks to the person who pointed out the Citi Dividend select card. You should get a premium from Citi! That is a lot smarter than using my United Miles Visa card for these purchases (even though I do a bit better than just a 1:1 redemption because I shop almost 100% at Safeway).

One thing I'll point out is that some of us cycle these cards to get the new card bonus. I'm not saying this is the easiest thing to do, you keep hassling with card cancellations, but I've racked up 45,000 in Delta miles doing this three times, and am getting ready to do this with my United Miles card.

With the Citi as my backup (for the wife mainly) why not?

And thanks to Marathon Man for pointing out the Amtrak rewards system. Fantastic! I feel like a food for converting CO miles to UA. I should have saved them for Amtrak. This program alone makes CO far more attractive.

One question: other than some of the third party services, is there a way to go backwards, from UA to Amtrak?

Thanks again!

The only problem with the Citibank card is that you get capped at $300. IMO, it is too much of a pain in the ... to stop using that card when I realize I have maxed it out in month 3 or 4, then have another card to start using until yr end. WOuld screw up the direct pmts and other auto bills being paid. My cap the Citi reward card at a measly $300 bucks ?

Ken in Phx

Considering changing my focus to Upromise
 

All the inflation and potential devaluation in airline miles has me starting to change my focus to Upromise.

Right now, I have >180k miles on DL. I redeemed 110k for a trip IND-HKG/PEK-IND on DL/SQ. I've redeemed 5 or 6 25k domestics over the last few years. But I'm currently earning faster than I'm redeeming, so I've build back up to >180k and earn about 5k-6k/month from DL Skymiles Amex. I'm not sure why I'm still saving all these miles since it's unlikely I'll use them much anymore. (The one thing I tell myself is if I ever have to fly on short notice for a funeral, I can fly without having to buy a last-minute ticket. BTW - I've been able to get last-minute award travel on DL using only the lower mileage requirement for a bereavement fare, even though the reward seats were sold out. Anyone else been able to do this?)

I also have ~70k miles on CO, but have earned them from actual flying ( :eek: - can you believe that?). Again, not sure what I'm saving them for, because I doubt I'll ever be able to use the FC trip to Europe or Hawaii.

I have a toddler who will be heading to college in about 16 years. I figure I should drop the Skymiles Amex and switch to the Citi Upromise card. At least the rewards you earn through Upromise are actual cash rebates that you can invest in a 529 account. I'll still earn miles from flying and from my corporate Amex MR program. But my focus will be on earning actual cash rebates to help with college. Of course, at about $10/month in rebates, I'll be lucky if the Upromise balance buys a college textbook in 16 years!

If not college textbooks, may be covers for those textbooks!

People filling a cheap, otherwise empty seat to gain miles are doing the airlines a huge, huge favor.

There is no other way to look at this.