which airline?

AA and AA/JL combos for connections

Yes it is. October is a very charming season with fall colours around Japan. Second most in demand season after Sakura season.

Good that FT can be a shoulder to lean on :), I do the same thing.

Yes, no doubt that (particularly in the past few years, maybe related to post-COVID) award prices have increased and the rate of increase has also accelerated. That’s also true for many other things, although the rise and rate of rise will vary, inflation will never cease. Dad: “I remember when a hot dog (or cup of coffee or newspaper or whatever) cost a nickel.”

One specific strategy, which has been very helpful to me, helps to ameliorate this phenomenon and can certainly be used going forward. I’ve done it with American, more often because I’m uncertain of my travel dates but it applies equally to miles cost savings and I believe it might also apply to United and/or Delta.

Since there are no award cancellation fees or charges or penalties, I book an award flight as soon as I start thinking about a trip, be it 6 months or 3 days ahead of time. I then “garden*” the reservation and whenever I see a better date and/or a better price, I book the better flight and once confirmed, cancel the existing reservation.

Yes, requires “floating” the miles although if not enough miles to double book, cancelling then (re)booking an hour later is probably relatively low risk. Can cancel at any time until departure. Cancelled/refunded miles on AA take an hour or so to be credited, refunded fees take 4-5 days to appear on credit card activity. My personal record is 5 bookings and cancellations for a ski trip flight JFK-SLC a few years ago when I initially used 42,000 miles for a OW fight and ended up rebooking (and cancelling) the exact same flight over the next few weeks for 34,000 then 28,000 then 21,000 then 18,000 before my final (actually flown) booking for 14,000 miles. And just recently I flew AA award biz JFK-LHR with uncertain return date. RT miles cost for all researched/possible flights were exactly double OW prices. I made 2 return reservations, same seat on same flight one day apart, and cancelled the earlier flight 16 hours prior to departure once I finalized my (one day later) return date.

Some might argue that this procedure is “selfish” in that it possibly prevents someone else from booking. In this case all flights had many available seats. And I think the “selfish” aspect might have been more important years ago but now that a jungle rules** attitude prevails in many ways, I’m finished with and/or too old to fight the tide*** anymore.

(* “garden” a reservation links)
(** “the law of the jungle noun phrase - used to describe a situation in which people do whatever they want to or whatever is necessary to survive or succeed.”)
(*** “Dictionary “swim against the tide” (fight the tide) act against the prevailing opinion or tendency”)