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The beginning of the end of travel rewards?

The beginning of the end of travel rewards?

Old Jan 25, 2019, 7:12 pm
  #46  
 
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Originally Posted by kapooncha
Rewards Credit Cards Gained Fanatic Following Now Banks Are Pulling Back- WSJ article

Nearly all the banks have severely restricted how many cards/sign-up bonuses customers can get. I know the common reply is that during the next recession, banks will be begging us to come back. I'll believe it when I see it.
Even if banks begged us to come back in the next recession, you can be sure that their offers are not going to be nearly as generous and rife with loopholes as in the past.
Banks are now cynical and manipulative. They've learned from their mistakes. They'll never be naive about this game again. The gig is up for us, unfortunately. It was wonderful while it lasted.

Last edited by joer1212; Jan 25, 2019 at 7:18 pm
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Old Jan 25, 2019, 7:21 pm
  #47  
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Originally Posted by joer1212
Even if banks begged us to come back in the next recession, you can be sure that their offers are not going to be nearly as generous and rife with loopholes as in the past.
Banks are now cynical and manipulative. They've learned from their mistakes. They'll never be naive about this game again. The gig is up for us, unfortunately. It was wonderful while it lasted.
Twas' a good run!
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Old Jan 25, 2019, 7:38 pm
  #48  
 
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Originally Posted by kapooncha
"The End" doesn't necessarily have to literally mean the end, if you catch my drift. I wasn't doing this back in 2007 but I imagine this whole hobby was extremely lucrative back then. Now, not nearly as much, and with the rules the banks have put in place, it's become exponentially more difficult.

In a few years, you may find that F awards cost upwards of 300,000 miles one way. So that's not literally "the end" but it basically is the end.
Exactly. Thank you!

People need to wake up and realize they're in denial about how badly this hobby has deteriorated.

Several years ago, I was able to churn cards with impunity, earning about a quarter of a million free miles and points with each application round. By contrast, my app-o-rama last night consisted of 7 credit card applications. Only one of them was approved (with an annual fee not waived the 1st year, which was never a thing before). Total miles earned? 50k.

I don't mean to sound spoiled, but the game is vastly worse now. It can be proven with simple grade school arithmetic. The numbers just don't add up like before.
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Last edited by joer1212; Jan 26, 2019 at 11:25 am
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Old Jan 25, 2019, 7:52 pm
  #49  
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Originally Posted by joer1212
Exactly. Thank you!

People need to wake up and realize they're in denial about how badly this hobby has deteriorated.

Several years ago, I was able to churn cards with impunity, earning about a quarter of a million free miles and points with each application round. By contrast, my app-o-rama last night consisted of 7 credit card applications, Only one of them was approved (with an annual fee not waived the 1st year, which was never a thing before). Total miles earned? 50k.

I don't mean to sound spoiled, but the game is vastly worse now. It can be proven with simple grade school arithmetic. The numbers just don't add up like before.
Yup, will be a sad day when I've redeemed my remaining points and miles. I will probably do more domestic trips within the U.S.

I've had an incredible 4 year run. Traveled to a ton of countries in F/J class so I'm grateful as hell. But the gig appears to be up!
​​
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Old Jan 25, 2019, 8:09 pm
  #50  
 
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Originally Posted by RustyC
A big problem that some have mentioned but I don't think gets emphasized enough is that both airlines and banks have gotten less competitive and more oligopolistic at the top level during this time when you get the explosion of blogs and the online tools have gotten better. So you have not only a lot more wannabes in the game, but a much worse playing field.

With the banks you get exclusive arrangements with mileage-earning cards, so only the top behemoths are in at that level. Others get to do points-based, which can have some advantages but aren't so churn-able. With banks in general you have something like the top 6 controlling 70% of assets, or some lopsided number like that.

With airlines you've got the US3 that just doesn't care as much about competing anymore and treats their FFers like the European monopoly flag carriers long treated theirs. The main competition in airlines, such as it is, is with ULCCs, and some of those are like Spirit in that they have a pretty uninspired FF program and hate the idea of elite perks that could decrease the charge-for-everything fee revenue. The ULCCs can be spoilers with "capacity discipline" (F9's ATL-SLC nonstop a perfect example...did a RT on that last year at $54 at a particularly low time). OTOH, they generally don't have enough planes or frequency yet, And DL has not been matching F9 or NK like it used to match WN.
Good points. There were many more major carriers competing for customers in the past. Now, as a direct result of mergers and liquidations, there are only 3.

To compound the problem, the 80-million-member Millennial generation in America has been flying in record numbers in the past 15 years. This played beautifully into the hands of the airline oligarchs, who responded by cramming more seats into their planes, and charging for things that used to be free (seat selection, "preferred seats", etc.).

Another consequence of fewer major airlines competing for customers, of course, is that there are now fewer opportunities to earn miles with co-branded credit cards.

Can you imagine how favorable the credit card landscape would be for consumers today if Northwest, Continental, USAir, TWA, Eastern and Pan Am were still around?

Last edited by joer1212; Jan 26, 2019 at 11:23 am
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Old Jan 25, 2019, 10:06 pm
  #51  
 
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While some of us got addicted to churning CCs to pocket and use signup bonuses, Airlines got increasing revenue from selling miles to the banks. Remember, every time one gets the bonus in terms of miles in his/her FF account, the Airline or Hotel management company got revenue from selling miles. The banks are getting smarter and soon the Airlines will be on the loosing side.
My point is that banks are partially responsible for ruining FF programs by buying vast amounts of miles from Airlines. Of course, one could only wish that Airlines would go back to rewarding flying customers once the revenue from selling miles to the banks dries up.
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Old Jan 26, 2019, 12:40 am
  #52  
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Originally Posted by joer1212
People need to wake up and realize they're in denial about how badly this hobby has deteriorated.

Several years ago, I was able to churn cards with impunity, earning about a quarter of a million free miles and points with each application round. By contrast, my app-o-rama last night consisted of 7 credit card applications, Only one of them was approved (with an annual fee not waived the 1st year, which was never a thing before). Total miles earned? 50k.

I don't mean to sound spoiled, but the game is vastly worse now. It can be proven with simple grade school arithmetic. The numbers just don't add up like before.
Things have not deteriorated significantly those of us who have always earned the bulk of our miles by flying, In fact they've improved for business travelers who are now rewarded for the high fares they pay for unrestricted economy and business class tickets. And the signup bonuses have now become quite generous for new customers who plan to keep their affinity cards.

As for churners I won't miss them - more awards to go around for everyone else including the road warriors for whom the programmes were originally designed.
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Old Jan 26, 2019, 4:41 am
  #53  
 
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Originally Posted by joer1212
I don't mean to sound spoiled, but the game is vastly worse now. It can be proven with simple grade school arithmetic. The numbers just don't add up like before.
Actually, the rules change, but the game remains the same. However, I see it as the middle of the end is near rather than the beginning as we move into the third year of revenue based mileage earning. There are still sweet spots to be had, but the alliances and partnerships seem to be withering which is one reason for the rise in value of the cash back cards and use of alternative airline programs. For example, AS still is a viable alternative to the US3 in terms of miles earning and burning given the plethora of partners they have. But as with all things, it depends on what you like and how you travel. One positive I've found is the increased use of other airlines for my travel, well, OK BA is worse than AA. And making do with PE vs hoping for that UPG to J. For those that can do long range planning and have flexibility of travel wants vs needs, award space still appears to be adequate, but not great,, and the use of repositioning to take advantage of low business class fares, i.e. ex-China for international travel which also keeps a lid on the US3's TPAC fares. For example, looking at my 2019 travel, I am using AA ex PEK for a decent I fare to the US which earns well on AS's program, And the differential between coach vx PE is shrinking ex-China as well, with my Sept trip showing $787 for PE vs $500 for coach and little immediate UPG space on AA.
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Old Jan 26, 2019, 11:13 am
  #54  
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Originally Posted by joer1212
.... my app-o-rama last night consisted of 7 credit card applications, ....
The app-o-rama has not been a productive card application strategy since about 2015. In 2016 you started this thread with the same sky-is-falling theme:

The Future of the App-o-Rama & Credit Card Churning

What did work for you in 2016 - 2018?
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Old Jan 26, 2019, 11:28 am
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Originally Posted by mia
The app-o-rama has not been a productive card application strategy since about 2015. What did work for you in 2016 - 2018?
Actually, nothing worked for me in the way it had in the past. I simply settled for less.
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Old Jan 26, 2019, 12:01 pm
  #56  
 
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The sign up bonuses on cashback cards are simply too low to bother with them. If as a generic middle/upper middle class couple you each sign up for 4 cards a year, and cross refer, hardly an aggressive strategy, you will have enough minimum spends to meet to swallow most of your credit card spending per yer, and you should end up with enough miles to get at least 3 RT trips every 2 years in premium cabins overseas. At 4 cards a year each you are unlikely to run out of cards for a fair while, even with the current restrictions. Even non aggressive card cycling, especially in two player mode, provides seriously good returns per dollar. Cashback, unless you spend serious $$$ cannot do that. 3 holidays with your flights in J is a massive upgrade (!). Yes if your work always buys you J tickets for overseas travel its not a massive deal but for the mere mortals it is major value.

Travel rewards won't die unless simultaneously all carriers move their programs to fixed or fixed but with a slight range value per point, and the Sign up bonuses dramatically decrease, by a factor of 5 at least. Only then will cashback be the only game in town.
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Old Jan 27, 2019, 5:46 am
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Originally Posted by joer1212
Banks are now cynical and manipulative.
Yes, and your comments and perspective in this thread don't sound "cynical and manipulative" at all...

Regards
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Old Jan 27, 2019, 2:52 pm
  #58  
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This is an interesting thread and it brought back a flood of memories. Does anyone here remember FatWallet or SuckIsStaples or App-o-Rama? (Circa 2004)

Though I was an avid participant on that board I never engaged in those shenanigans. My focus then, as now, was to maximize rewards on my credit cards.

There have been positive changes over the years as well as losses. IMHO it is Much easier to transfer points and miles. There are so many great ways to earn and transfer points and miles now.

And as someone pointed out, Award seats are much more difficult to find (back in the day I never sweated availability on airlines like Virgin Atlantic or Air France as long as I booked 11 months or so in advance). But the airlines have made some Biz class and even First class tickets affordable.

And with so many Credit Card companies competing for our business, there are new lucrative offers almost annually.

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Old Jan 27, 2019, 2:56 pm
  #59  
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Originally Posted by joer1212
Actually, nothing worked for me....
There still strategies that work. Both American Express and Citi circulate targeted offers that do not include their standard anti-churning language. Chase's 5/24 rule can be worked around by applying for business cards that are invisible to their algorithm to keep the number of reported recent accounts low. Capital One has just added mileage transfers to their rewards program. Smaller issuers periodically introduce new products to test the travel card market.

None of these opportunities can be fully described in a paragraph. There are nuances, exceptions, and pitfalls, but the opportunities are still there.
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Old Jan 27, 2019, 5:35 pm
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Originally Posted by damon88
This is an interesting thread and it brought back a flood of memories. Does anyone here remember FatWallet or SuckIsStaples or App-o-Rama? (Circa 2004)

Though I was an avid participant on that board I never engaged in those shenanigans. My focus then, as now, was to maximize rewards on my credit cards.
Oh, yes. Came over from Anandtech, actually, back in the online gambling bonus days.
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