Hot Promos: What is the effect on award flight availability?
 

When new offers pour in by the handfuls from every major credit card company, how many people join the ranks of FF award hunters? It seems like the ranks are swelling-- new 70K offer from Delta; 75K from Amex PRG here and there; 100K Avios... blogs with readerships that increase 1000 readers a month (MMS subscriber data). Now, the AA search engine shows so many more awards on partner airlines, it seems like even the most amateur miles hunter can nab an award.

So, my questions are: Are the airlines increasing the number of award seats in response to all the new offers/new members? Since airline programs are clearly a very desirable perk for nearly every credit card holder, it seems that they might offer up a few more bones to keep the customers coming back. OR-- do most people just sign up for a card, use it here and there, maybe get one trip under their belt after a year or two of casual spending, and fade away after the yearly fees start to dim their enthusiasm? (that's the demographic of many people that I know)

Also, just for speculation's sake... how many new card members do you think sign up during the hot promos? Any clues?

Well, this is all speculation unless you can get an insider who works for one of these frequent flyer programs to comment, but it's my humble opinion that inexpensive "low" awards have almost entirely vanished. Not a shred of evidence that the airlines have increased the number of award seats and some anecdotal evidence, based on how long searches take, that they've cut back. However, I've had the same rule of thumb for many years now, since the Northwest days, that if you really must take a trip, be sure to have twice as many miles in your account as you think you will need. It works for me.

I have yet to be shut out entirely on an award (and I'd consider paying for a 2x "rulebuster" award as being shut out). Knock on wood...

What I am finding is that the options are narrowing in some cases. Not having access to some of the best *A F products with US miles is one example. Having to route all Europe awards using Avios through Dublin on EI metal is another. The severe tightening of AA awards on mundane short-hauls has been a bit of a pain as well.

But there have been successes as well. Booked last-minute award J to HKG/NRT using US miles six weeks ago. Just booked 5 award seats together to Europe for peak summer 2013 dates, albeit in Aer Lingus economy class. Used US and DL companion passes to get some very expensive tickets booked to small Northeast airports this past summer. Did a few minor US to/from Canada awards at over 2 cpm.

I believe that at the end of the day, we will want to do enough travel that is atypical for the average credit card mileage churner that we'll continue to find our awards. We don't mind flying outside peak seasons and we are willing to fly any cabin although we tend to start our searches with J.

Only thing that has me a bit worried is that I have a *lot* of Avios and Aer Lingus is a rather thin lifeline to Europe...who knows how long it'll last. If that goes away, Avios will become solely my AA short-haul program and I'll be only looking at *A for Europe.

Plenty of domestic 25k R/T flights for my MSP/BDL or HPN route available on United, I have 6 RT's booked for 2013 including Memorial Day, 4th of July and Labor Day.

I also grabbed two 25K R/T MSP/TPA for April, booked back in May

I think United is an anomaly, as they seem to have the best availabilty on any given day. AA is pitiful domestic, and for TATL they default to BA more often than not (with their exhorbitant fees). Not much experience with the others, but if I had to say, I'd agree with peachfront that award seats (certainly for more than 2 people travelling together) are less available these days.

It's getting much more difficult to find award seats. I remember back in July 2010, I had no trouble at all finding 2 J class seats on *A for BNE-SIN-ICN-LAX-PHX-MEX /- LAX-ICN-SIN-BNE. I used US miles from the previous Grand Slams to pay for them.

Just a couple weeks ago, I really struggled to book another *A award. BNE-BKK-ICN-YVR-IAH-BZE /- HNL-ICN-BKK-BNE in J class except had to settle for Y class on the YVR-IAH-BZE segments. These were also paid for using Grand Slam miles previously earned. It took 3 hours to find an itinerary and ticket it because of phantom space on NH that I could see but US couldn't. I don't recall 2 years ago OZ being difficult to get across the Pacific but there was literally nothing between BKK and the USA within 2 weeks either side of the dates I needed.

I wonder what could have changed so drastically in the last 2 years that has made it so difficult to find and book awards?

Yields. The planes are full. Full planes = less award seats available.

Way back in the day (waaaayyyy back), I worked in the music industry and flew quite a bit. Our goal was to, as quickly as possible, tag a whole row of empty (economy) seats to take a nap in. All of us, stretching out as best we could in the back of the plane. More often than not, we'd be successful. Now, it seems like a thrilling perk if you happen to have an empty seat next to you. The planes are surely much more crowded, and thus, fiscally viable, now.

I guess it makes sense that fewer and fewer award seats would be available on more crowded flights... and with so many more FF travelers, it's just more big dogs fighting over the same bone, eh?