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Background on planned BKK/MAA/NKG cut

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Old May 10, 2012, 5:53 am
  #1  
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Post Background on planned BKK/MAA/NKG cut

It seems the cost of flying longhaul to BKK is too high that even with a load of 90%+ routes they yield doesn't justify it, especially since EK flies there 4 times a day. The article in this weeks LH employee magazine:

Code:
Am rasanten Wachstum des
Luftverkehrs in Asien können
europäische Airlines nicht mehr
in gewohntem Maß teilhaben.
Vor allem in der wirtschaftlichen
Entwicklung haben die asiatischen
Carrier ihre Wettbewerber
aus Europa abgehängt.
Die IATA erwartet für 2012 Milliardengewinne
der Airlines in
Asien – während für Europa ein
Verlust der Branche in Höhe
von 600 Millionen US-Dollar
prognostiziert wird. Auch Lufthansa
kann sich nicht mehr auf
die Führungsposition unter den
europäischen Airlines in Asien/
Pazifik verlassen und musste
zuletzt drei unprofitable Strecken
nach Hyderabad, Kolkata
und Guangzhou einstellen.
Drei weitere Lufthansa-Destinationen
stehen zur Disposition,
wenn sie keine positiven Ergebnisbeiträge
erwirtschaften:
neben Chennai und Nanjing
auch das Ziel Bangkok, das Lufthansa
seit über 50 Jahren anfliegt.
Eine Einstellung dieser
Destinationen in Asien gelte es
„unbedingt zu verhindern“, appellierte
Carsten Spohr in seinem
offenen Brief.
Dabei ist die Welt für die Lufthansa
Passage in Asien/Pazifik
auf den ersten Blick in Ordnung:
Die Sitzladefaktoren sind
hoch, der Verkaufsanteil im
Markt Asien/Pazifik wächst und
beträgt insgesamt schon über
30 Prozent. Mit Shenyang und
Qingdao kann Lufthansa seit
März sogar neue Zielorte ab
Frankfurt anbieten.
Große Sorgen
„Was uns große Sorgen macht
ist, dass wir immer weniger
vom Wachstum in profitable Ergebnisse
für uns umsetzen können,
weil das Angebot und der
Wettbewerb es dem Kunden
derzeit leicht macht, nicht mit
uns zu fliegen und dabei Geld zu
sparen“, sagt Steffen Harbarth,
Vice President Asia/Pacific, der
als SIN EA das Passagegeschäft
in der Region verantwortet.
„Dabei ist es gar nicht so, dass
wir die Strecken einstellen, weil
wir zu wenige Passagiere haben.
Wir mussten Strecken einstellen
mit einem Sitzladefaktor
von durchschnittlich über 90
Prozent.“
Kosten senken
Viel stärker als etwa in Europa
oder auf dem Nordatlantik haben
es europäische Airlines in
den asiatischen Märkten mit
sehr ungleichen Wettbewerbsbedingungen
zu tun. Wer zum
Beispiel von Frankfurt nach
Hongkong fliegen möchte, hat
auch viele asiatische Carrier
und Golfairlines zur Auswahl.
Aggressive Preisführer sind
hier aktuell Airlines aus Ostasien
und den Golfstaaten.
„Diese Airlines sind ernsthafte
Wettbewerber, die ihre sehr
günstigen Kostenstrukturen im
wahrsten Sinne des Wortes
über alle Grenzen hinweg in unsere
Heimat und unsere Kernmärkte
fliegen“, so Harbarth.
Wer im asiatischen Markt erfolgreich
sein wolle, müsse hohe
Qualität zum günstigen Preis
anbieten. „Die Marktpreise, die
,wir hier erzielen können, decken
sich leider nicht mehr mit
unseren hohen Produktionskosten“,
analysiert Harbarth.
Positiv sei aber das bisherige
Investment der Lufthansa in die
Marke und die Entscheidung
für eine Interkont-Teilflotte in
der Zwei-Klassen-Konfigura -
tion. „In Shenyang, Qingdao
und Nanjing gibt es so gut wie
keine First-Class-Nachfrage.
Wenn es uns jetzt noch gelingt,
die Kosten für unseren Betrieb
wirklich zu senken, dann sehe
ich großes Potenzial für Erfolg
und Wachstum in Asien“, so der
Lufthansa-Area-Manager. Derzeit
wächst der Druck auf die
Asienstrecken allerdings weiter
und selbst eine klassische
Destination wie Bangkok steht
wegen fehlender Wirtschaftlichkeit
unter der Beobachtung
des Vorstandes – trotz hervor -
ragender Auslastung der Flugzeuge.
„Die Passagierzahlen
stimmen. Das wirtschaftliche
Ergebnis macht uns Sorgen“,
sagt Bernd Hildenbrand, Stationsleiter
in Bangkok. „In Bangkok
haben wir es mit einem sehr
preissensiblen Markt zu tun.“,
ergänzt Lufthansa-Verkaufsleiter
Dirk Grossmann, BKK GG.
„Hinzu kommen die hohen Produktions-
und Treibstoffkosten
wegen der langen Flugzeit –
und da ein Wettbewerber wie
Emirates inzwischen viermal
täglich nach Bangkok fliegt, geraten
die Preise enorm unter
Druck. Die höheren Produktionskosten
können wir aber
kaum noch an die Kunden weitergeben,“
erläutert Grossmann.
Air Berlin habe die Bangkok-
Flüge bereits einstellen
müssen.
Nur wenn es Lufthansa gelinge,
den „Teufelskreis der neuen
Kostenschrauben zu durchbrechen“,
werde sie auch künftig
erfolgreich sein, sagt Harbarth.
„Carsten Spohr hat die Ziele für
die Lufthansa beziffert: Eine
fünfprozentige Kostenreduzierung
bei relevanten Faktoren
wie Gebühren, Treibstoffverbrauch
und eben auch Arbeitskosten
macht uns zukunfts- und
wettbewerbsfähig. Wenn wir in
der Globalisierung Erfolg haben
wollen, müssen wir zu den
Qualitätsmerkmalen Sicherheit
und Zuverlässigkeit auch noch
Preiswürdigkeit und Wandlungsfähigkeit
hinzufügen.“

Code:
European airlines can no
longer participate to the same
extent as before in the rapid
growth of air traffic in Asia. In
terms of economic development,
Asian carriers have
clearly outpaced their European
competitors.
For 2012 IATA expects Asia-Pacific
carriers to deliver a profit
of 2.3 billion dollars, while for
Europe it predicts an estimated
loss of 600 million dollars.
Lufthansa can also no longer
rely upon being the leading European
airline in the Asia-Pacific
region, and has recently shut
down three unprofitable routes
– to Hyderabad, Kolkata and
Guangzhou.
Three more Lufthansa destinations
in Asia also face the chop
if they do not make a positive
contribution to our result:
Chennai, Nanjing and
Bangkok, which Lufthansa has
served for more than 50 years.
“We must do everything possible
to prevent services to these
destinations from being discontinued,”
Carsten Spohr said in
his open letter to Lufthansa
staff.
At first sight, Lufthansa appears
to be doing well in the Asia-Pacific
region. Passenger load factors
are high, while Lufthansa’s
share of the market already exceeds
the 30 per cent mark.
Since March, it has been offering
flights from Frankfurt to two
new destinations in China:
Shenyang and Qingdao.
“It is not that we do not not have
enough passengers. We have
had to abandon routes with a
passenger load factor of over 90
per cent,” says Steffen Harbarth,
Vice President Asia/Pacific,
SIN EA.
If you want to be successful in
the Asian market, he explains,
you have to offer high quality at
a reasonable price. “Unfortunately,
the market prices we can
achieve no longer cover our
production costs.”
Mounting pressure
To date, Lufthansa’s investment
in its brand has been positive,
he says, as has its decision
in favour of a sub-fleet with a
two-class configuration. “In
Shenyang, Qingdao and Nanjing
there is virtually no demand
for First Class, and customers
are price conscious.”
Meanwhile, pressure is still
mounting on routes to Asia, and
even a classic destination such
as Bangkok, which Lufthansa
has been serving since 1959, has
come under the sharp eye of the
Executive Board because it is
not profitable enough – in spite
of the excellent load factors.
The Thai capital is a good example
of how several small negative
factors, when they come together,
can jeopardise even the
most successful route.
“Bangkok is a very price-sensitive
market,” explains Dirk
Grossmann, General Manager
Passenger Sales Thailand, BKK
GG. “On top of that, there are
the high production and fuel
costs. And given that a competitor
like Emirates now flies four
times daily to Bangkok, prices
are coming under enormous
pressure,” he adds.
“In his open letter, Carsten
Spohr said that a five per cent reduction
in the cost of relevant
factors such as fees, fuel consumption
and also labour costs
would make Lufthansa viable
and competitive in the future. If
we want to be successful in Asia
in the long term, we must
change now. If we want to succeed
in a globalised world we
must add value for money and
adaptability to Lufthansa’s longestalished
quality standards:
safety and reliability,” said Harbarth.
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Old May 10, 2012, 6:41 am
  #2  
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Thanks for sharing, interesting read and insight.
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Old May 10, 2012, 6:42 am
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MAA is no surprise as loads are often weak. But BKK??? I fly this route 6 times a year and it's always full to the last seat.
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Old May 10, 2012, 6:45 am
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I believe the problems LH has in Asia are self inflicted. Customers in premium classes with paid tickets have a choice of several airlines.
Airlines make money in business class and first class.
Looking just at the hard product in business class: Most of the asian carriers are moving to some kind of full flat herringbone layout where every seat has aisle access. This is usually 3 across on the A3x0 or 4 across on the 777. Compare this to LH where (at least from the pictures i have seen) LH will have 6 across with (also just from pictures) significantly less space.
Some airlines (NH for example) has a staggered layout with 8 seats (all seats with direct aisle access) on the 777. LX has 9 seats across on the 3x0, with is less wide.

Same is true for First. The CX seats in F are fantastic. One seat is big enough that 3 people can have a meal - two sitting on the seat and one on the footrest. LH has 4 across in the smaller 3x0 or the smaller 380 upper deck. Most other airlines have 4 across on the 777 - which also results in significantly more space for the passenger.

Don't get me wrong. I like the new LH F product, l like the new LX F product even better. But when i pay for a ticket and price/connections are similar I normally pick one of the asian carriers over LH/LX without thinking - especially in business class.

To make things worse: even American Airlines, an airline i usually try to avoid just announced their new business class seats: they are similar to CX, 4 across on a 777 with (difficult to judge from the pictures) around 50 % more space. Pictures here: http://boardingarea.com/blogs/viewfromthewing/

I believe LH needs to rethink their premium strategy, especially their decision for the hard product in Business Class. Otherwise they will go in a downward spiral similar to what the US carriers went thru where at the end a significant portion of business class and first class will be filled with free upgrades or employees (like it is now on US carriers) and the paying customers will take their money elsewhere.

It will be interesting to see over the next few years if the asian carriers will become more profitable and LH will be going in the direction of the US carriers.

Last edited by Unterwegs; May 10, 2012 at 6:57 am
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Old May 10, 2012, 7:11 am
  #5  
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Originally Posted by Unterwegs
I believe the problems LH has in Asia are self inflicted. Customers in premium classes with paid tickets have a choice of several airlines.
Airlines make money in business class and first class.
Looking just at the hard product in business class: Most of the asian carriers are moving to some kind of full flat herringbone layout where every seat has aisle access. This is usually 3 across on the A3x0 or 4 across on the 777. Compare this to LH where (at least from the pictures i have seen) LH will have 6 across with (also just from pictures) significantly less space.
Some airlines (NH for example) has a staggered layout with 8 seats (all seats with direct aisle access) on the 777. LX has 9 seats across on the 3x0, with is less wide.

Same is true for First. The CX seats in F are fantastic. One seat is big enough that 3 people can have a meal - two sitting on the seat and one on the footrest. LH has 4 across in the smaller 3x0 or the smaller 380 upper deck. Most other airlines have 4 across on the 777 - which also results in significantly more space for the passenger.

Don't get me wrong. I like the new LH F product, l like the new LX F product even better. But when i pay for a ticket and price/connections are similar I normally pick one of the asian carriers over LH/LX without thinking - especially in business class.

To make things worse: even American Airlines, an airline i usually try to avoid just announced their new business class seats: they are similar to CX, 4 across on a 777 with (difficult to judge from the pictures) around 50 % more space. Pictures here: http://boardingarea.com/blogs/viewfromthewing/

I believe LH needs to rethink their premium strategy, especially their decision for the hard product in Business Class. Otherwise they will go in a downward spiral similar to what the US carriers went thru where at the end a significant portion of business class and first class will be filled with free upgrades or employees (like it is now on US carriers) and the paying customers will take their money elsewhere.

It will be interesting to see over the next few years if the asian carriers will become more profitable and LH will be going in the direction of the US carriers.
very well said
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Old May 10, 2012, 7:22 am
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Originally Posted by Unterwegs
...
But when i pay for a ticket and price/connections are similar I normally pick one of the asian carriers over LH/LX without thinking - especially in business class.
...
Same here. And I have often observed that Lufthansa in business class is one of the more expensive options ...
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Old May 10, 2012, 12:07 pm
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I agree with the views, and have some more to add.

As LH Miles and More scheme of "loyalty" they had been working hard to give us the reasons of asking why I should spend my money with them if they are keeping the rules more and more difficult just to get a "free" ticket or even to get upgraded.

True this is a business and they can't afford to lose money. But the ones who can pay a Z fare (or the new P one) are the ones who can spend more money on them if they feel rewarded. Now this is changing (just a quick review of the latest threats can give the "mood") and with better products to go to BKK or South East Asia, I preffer to pick the ones that won't make me feel unwanted.
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Old May 10, 2012, 1:00 pm
  #8  
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By discussing the possibility of cutting the BKK route, they are making it into a self fulfilling prophesy.

Which regular on this route won't to be scrambling for alternatives now?
I certainly am...

I fly this route every 3 weeks, but it looks like TG will be my new home once their A380 is on the FRA-BKK route. Amazing that LH can't make it work.
In this case I see a bleak future for ALL of their Asia routes!
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Old May 10, 2012, 1:16 pm
  #9  
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Originally Posted by Rambuster
By discussing the possibility of cutting the BKK route, they are making it into a self fulfilling prophesy.

Which regular on this route won't to be scrambling for alternatives now?
I certainly am...

I fly this route every 3 weeks, but it looks like TG will be my new home once their A380 is on the FRA-BKK route. Amazing that LH can't make it work.
In this case I see a bleak future for ALL of their Asia routes!
For a longhaul carrier to given up on an Asian hub is similar to Apple saying "We can't compete with Nokia in Europe".

The rationale makes about as much sense as the justifcation for reducing the HON circle membership.

Who are the advisors please currently of LH management? I am really curious now.
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Old May 11, 2012, 3:58 am
  #10  
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Originally Posted by Rambuster
By discussing the possibility of cutting the BKK route, they are making it into a self fulfilling prophesy.
Thats the point of *A and other alliances... LH has decided to leave that market to its partner TG who probably should have a strategy to battle with EK & co.

That EK & co will seriously threaten LH & co on everything to SEA and OZ is not new, its been in their presentations since 2008-09 when EK place the mega orders for their 777 and A380 fleet. The India market was seen to be relatively safe due to inconvenience/diversion of transiting in DXB/DOH/AUH. The same applied/applies to China. The example of MAA/HYD/CCU shows that EK/QR just puts in 5-14x frequencies on mediocre A330/A320 equipment with low price points and just drags the market price down 10-20%. At that price point you expand the market (folks who never thought of spending money on international travel now do) and you smoothen over product deficiencies (trust me I've done MUC-DXB-CCU in Y, its not nicer than even LH/9W Y MUC-DEL-CCU or MUC-FRA-CCU).

I think LH will continue to fight for markets/destinations worth fighting for: India (BLR/DEL/BOM), China, SIN, etc Letting routes go is normal, we've seen that type of consolidation to Oz with the advent of *A in 1997 or with the dropping of hooping/tag flights to S.America and Asia in the 90s.
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Old May 11, 2012, 4:18 am
  #11  
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So you think LH will drop BKK but will continue to fly there with OS from VIE and with LX from ZRH ?
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Old May 11, 2012, 4:34 am
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I think this is mainly internal PR in order to convince unions and work groups of the need for cost savings and efficiency gains, and external PR to ensure no political support for EK's request to fly to additional German airports.

That said, if no cost savings can be achieved then I am sure LH would drop BKK (and other routes that make a negative profit contribution) and reroute passengers on OS or LX.
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Old May 11, 2012, 4:54 am
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Does anyone have an idea when these cuts are expected to occur? My wife just booked our family Christmas trip with a return MAA-FRA-CPH. I am curious to know the chances of that sticking as I need to make other travel arrangments during our stay in India/Sri Lanka.
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Old May 11, 2012, 5:30 am
  #14  
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Originally Posted by Rambuster
So you think LH will drop BKK but will continue to fly there with OS from VIE and with LX from ZRH ?
If I read the OS PR right, BKK may be on the chopping board for OS too...
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Old May 11, 2012, 5:31 am
  #15  
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Originally Posted by the_horvaths
Does anyone have an idea when these cuts are expected to occur? My wife just booked our family Christmas trip with a return MAA-FRA-CPH. I am curious to know the chances of that sticking as I need to make other travel arrangments during our stay in India/Sri Lanka.
I doubt they will axe MAA this winter. If they do, they will have alternative reprotection agreements to move you onto.
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