Future of Midwest Miles Program?
 

Figured I'd start this conversation given the news today. Obviously the battle is from over, but obviously it's the closest we've been so far.

As the title says, IF the takeover were to occur, what do you think would happen to our midwest miles in a conversion to the aplus program? Partly I don't know anything about how their program works, but IIRC it is different than the "traditional" programs.

Makes me start thinking it might be time to start booking some flights on NWA in the distant future, and maybe just eat the change fees down the road???

Their program is credit based so it is probably more rewarding for the short haul traveler. They don't have any redemption partners except for Frontier but will buy you a ticket on OALs for at certain credit levels.

One-way Business Class upgrade 4
One-way coach ticket 8
One-way Business Class ticket 16
Roundtrip coach ticket on another airline in the contiguous 48 US states 32
Roundtrip coach ticket on another airline between the contiguous 48 US states and Alaska, Hawaii, Canada and Mexico 50
Roundtrip coach ticket on another airline anywhere else in the world 100
Free* annual companion pass 100
Travel on Frontier in U.S. and Canada 24 A+ Rewards Credits*
Travel on Frontier to Mexico and Alaska 36 A+ Rewards Credits*

I'm sure they would create some conversion of miles into segments. My guess from looking at their program and knowing Midwest's is that it would be 1500 miles = 1 credit.

The Air Tran credit card is also issued by Juniper/Barclays. I suppose a quick way to build up lots of Air Tran credits would be to get the YX card (and business card) and also the Air Tran credit card before the merger happens.

22500 miles for YX credit card (bonus + balance transfer
22500 miles for YX business credit card (bonus + balance transfer)

16 credits for Air Tran Visa (bonus + balance transfer)

I know you're just throwing out a guess on the conversion rate, but a 1500:1 conversion rate would be a killer.

50,000 miles on Midwest gets you to Europe in Coach AND
60,000 miles on Midwest gets you to Asia in Coach

Using the 1500:1 conversion rate would result in

50,000 miles = 33.33 credits (33.33% of a round-trip to Europe)
60,000 miles = 40 credits (40% of a round-trip to Asia)

Those are huge devaluations in Midwest miles, not unlike the recent Starwood devaluation.

Quite true, but I doubt there is a way for this merger to happen without YX miles being devalued, simply because YX has actual partners and is a better overall FF program. Unless FL becomes really scared of losing YX passengers and gives a very generous conversion.

My conversion guess was 1500 because:
OW YX award = 15000 miles = 8 FL credits (1875 to 1 ratio)
RT YX award = 25000 miles = 16 FL credits (1562.5 to 1 ratio)

At those levels, 1500 is a bonus.

12500 bonus miles for YX top credit card = 6 credits for FL top credit card = 2083 to 1 ratio
10000 bonus miles for YX CC BT = 10 credits for FL CC BT = 1000 to 1 ratio

5000 bonus miles for YX bottom CC = 3 credits for FL bottom CC = 1666 to 1 ratio
And of course, the CCs are issued by the same bank. Hopefully they'll pick the 1000 to 1 ratio, at which point the Asia and Europe coach awards will still be devalued, just not as much. I can't see a ratio below 1000. For RT coach awards it would be a 50% bonus.

More evidence for a likely 1500:1 conversion rate is that that is the Amex Membership Rewards transfer rate.
:(

Edited to add:
Some reason for a better conversion rate might be that $1000 spending on the Airtran credit card is equal to 1 credit.
So that might point to a 1000:1 conversion rate...one can hope...