Onboard loans (T100s) for August

Old Dec 5, 09, 10:03 pm
  #1  
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Onboard loans (T100s) for August

Here are the onboard loads for August for Midwest and some select MKE competitors. As always, remember that onboard load is only half the picture when trying to judge relative success of a route, and says little about fare or traffic composition.

As more Midwest markets are a mix of aircraft, I decided just to put everbody together and not break them apart by aircraft type this month. Not sure if I'll continue that way or revert to separate listings and then the additional section of multi-aircraft city pairs.

Midwest
96.1% .. MCI .. SEA
94.4% .. MKE .. LAX
93.9% .. MKE .. LAS
91.9% .. MCI .. SFO
91.7% .. MKE .. BOS
89.7% .. MKE .. PHX
89.5% .. MCI .. LAX
89.0% .. MKE .. DEN
88.2% .. MKE .. PHL
88.1% .. MKE .. LGA
87.5% .. MKE .. MCO
86.6% .. MKE .. TPA
85.4% .. MKE .. EWR
84.4% .. MCI .. BOS
83.4% .. MCI .. LGA
81.8% .. MKE .. DCA
80.1% .. MKE .. MSP
76.4% .. MKE .. OMA
75.7% .. OMA .. DCA
74.3% .. MKE .. DFW
72.7% .. MKE .. MCI
72.3% .. MCI .. DCA
71.7% .. MKE .. MSN
69.3% .. MKE .. GRB
69.2% .. MKE .. ATL
68.2% .. MKE .. PIT
65.8% .. MKE .. GRR
61.1% .. MKE .. DSM
58.5% .. MKE .. ATW
56.8% .. MKE .. BNA
56.6% .. MKE .. CLE
52.6% .. MKE .. CMH
51.0% .. MKE .. IND
50.5% .. MKE .. SDF
50.4% .. MKE .. DAY
48.4% .. MKE .. FNT

------

AirTran

93.6% .. MKE .. SEA
93.0% .. MKE .. SAN
92.3% .. MKE .. LAS
92.1% .. MKE .. LAX
91.8% .. MKE .. SFO
91.1% .. MKE .. DEN
90.8% .. MKE .. TPA
84.0% .. MKE .. BOS
82.2% .. MKE .. BWI
80.8% .. MKE .. LGA
80.6% .. MKE .. MCO
77.4% .. MKE .. ATL
72.1% .. MKE .. DCA
70.8% .. MKE .. MSP
58.5% .. MKE .. STL

Frontier
94.1% .. MKE .. DEN

Northwest
93.8% .. MKE .. LAX


August is clearly a peak month for leisure traffic, and the very high loads in many markets show this. To reach an average load factor of approaching or surpassing 90% means even off-peak flights have strong loads. And very likely some top routes have spill from one carrier to another.

The T100's don't show local / connecting mixes, however when flights are run as "thru" flights (same flight number AAA - MKE - BBB) the stats do give us a way to see how many AAA-BBB passengers were run through Milwaukee.

On the Midwest side, Republic's stats don't show "thru" numbers, and on the 717 side most city pairs did not fly "thru" Milwaukee. But at Kansas City there were some thru numbers:

average thru passengers per day on the 1x/day thru flight
MKE-(MCI)-SEA 27
SEA-(MCI)-MKE 26

MKE-(MCI)-LAX 31
LAX-(MCI)-MKE 33

LGA-(MCI)-SFO 10
SFO-(MCI)-LGA 9

I was quite surprised that MKE-LAX had so many thru passengers each day (30+) on top of flying 94.4% full on the new nonstop E190. However with both AirTran (92.1%) and Northwest (93.8%) packed on MKE-LAX, perhaps that explains it. It also explains why Midwest was so quick to increase their MKE-LAX seats from 99 to 198 with the additon of the red-eye in October. However traffic to the west coast drops quite a bit after summer.

AirTran's thru markets at Milwaukee give us a glimpse of how they're flowing traffic through their hub operation here. We can only see markets where they flew "thru" flights, and what they did fly as "thru" this month were 1x/day. So when we see the stat of 16 passengers per day MSP-DCA, that's only the number of people (on average) on that one daily flight...it doesn't say how many connecting passengers may have flown MSP-DCA via Milwaukee on two other connecting itineraries each day. At any rate, it's interesting to imagine people in markets like Seattle-Orlando passing through Milwaukee.

average daily thru passengers on the single daily thru flight via MKE

BOS-(MKE)-SFO 3
BOS-(MKE)-STL 2
BWI-(MKE)-SAN 8
DCA-(MKE)-SEA 28
DCA-(MKE)-SFO 5
LGA-(MKE)-LAX 19
LGA-(MKE)-MSP 30
MCO-(MKE)-MSP 6
MSP-(MKE)-DCA 16
MSP-(MKE)-LGA 55
SAN-(MKE)-LGA 3
SEA-(MKE)-MCO 5
SFO-(MKE)-BWI 3
STL-(MKE)-BOS 2
STL-(MKE)-MSP 4

Also, the morning MKE-STL-MCO trip averaged 25 thru passengers per day flying thru MKE-(STL)-MCO.

From these stats, it suggests that the west coast flights had plenty of local MKE demand this summer to fill seats. Heavy traffic between MSP and the east coast flying via Milwaukee have bolstered loads to MSP and to the east coast markets like LGA. St Louis doesn't seem to have anywhere near the same demand for traffic to the east via MKE, and that fits the decision to keep MSP mainline and downgrade STL to CRJ.

This is just one month, and remember that connections don't show up at all in these stats...they look like locals. But there are still some traces of patterns showing up.
knope2001 is offline  
Old Dec 6, 09, 8:24 am
  #2  
 
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Originally Posted by knope2001 View Post
Here are the onboard loads for August for Midwest and some select MKE competitors. As always, remember that onboard load is only half the picture when trying to judge relative success of a route, and says little about fare or traffic composition.

It will be interesting to see what happens, once the first Southwest numbers are factored in for the new MKE service, which commenced 11/01/2009.

The couple of Southwest flights I flew in November had very strong loads, while my friend's BWI-MKE-BWI flights were wide open.

Which, if any, of MKE'S previously established carriers will be shown to be losing passengers to WN? Perhaps Southwest is attracting new traffic to MKE, without sacrificing loads on the other carriers; the stepped up competition, with very competitive fares, is surely upping the numbers.
mke9499 is offline  
Old Dec 6, 09, 12:41 pm
  #3  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Colorado
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Thanks you Knope as always for sharing this information.

I always look forward to the flight information and data you've collected.

Thanks.
AviationFan24 is offline  

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