BlueHorseShoe2000

Some noteworthy schedule changes have been loaded by two airlines serving MKE.

Beginning January 29, 2010 American Airlines will increase MKE-DFW from three to five daily round-trip flights. Three of the flights will be up-gauged to the CR7, which will be getting first class cabins sometime next year. Obviously, this is in response to AirTran. Nonetheless, it's still a rather surprising move given how American has nothing more than a token presence in MKE these days.

Also in January, Delta will be adjusting capacity/frequency downward on the MKE-ATL route. Currently, they serve the route 7x daily (5x with MD88s, 2x with CR9). After the holidays, there will be six flights a day on a mix of equipment (2x MD88s, 3x CR9, 1x E175). I'm sure some of this has to due with the slower winter months in general, but Delta's schedule changes are hard to figure out sometimes. They come and go with mainline on this route all the time.

Additionally, Delta will be ending MKE-JFK service in January.

flyYX

There was some buzz about AA possibly starting MKE - MIA, but I guess that isn't going to happen. I am sure they don't want to cut off the bleed from Wisconsin to ORD on this route.

BlueHorseShoe2000

There is a very reliable source on airliners.net who has stated that American has given serious consideration to adding MKE-MIA service. Probably the one thing preventing service to date has been the lack of an appropriate aircraft to fly the route with. Now that American Eagle is taking delivery of more CR7s, the prospect of non-stop MKE-MIA is much more realistic.

newsmanhoss

Here is the press release from American:

http://www.mitchellairport.com/news.html#aeagle_dfw

knope2001

Looks like a few FL cutbacks for the dead of winter are showing up now.

Between early January and mid February:

PHX is pulled
BWI drops from 3x to 2x
FLL shows some Tuesday/Wednesday drops.
LAS drops from 2x to 1x on Tuesday/Wednesdays
LAX drops from 2x to 1x on Monday-Tuesday / Tuesday Wednesday

I'm not surprised to see FL and YX trim back some dead-of-winter trips, and some others like Continental and USAirways have done this at Milwaukee before. It doesn't seem Southwest's style to cut back in this way, and it will be interesting to see everybody's loads this winter in MKE.

flyYX

Strange to see PHX go in the dead of winter but I guess advance bookings are not there for FL. Could this be the beginning of a pull back from MKE for FL?

newsmanhoss

Too early to tell. After all, they just recently announced the new routs to DFW as well as the SkyWest partnership.

Remember that FL didn't operate MKE-LAX at all last winter, and they are offering the one RT through the dead of winter despite the cutback of the 2nd nonstop.

Others on this board (knope) may have more information on what FL did last winter if you want to do a year-to-year comparison of FL's winter ops from MKE.

knope2001

I don't think this yet suggests a shakeout. The big difference this year over last year is the full east-west hub which was suspended between roughly 9/5/08 and 5/1/09 is running the full winter. The east-west routes are largely increased over the year.

Off the top of my head, here's a comparison of winter 2009 versus the upcoming winter 2010.

2009 offpeak is how many flights per week in the dead of winter 2009
2010 planned offpeak is how many flights planned for the dead of winter 2010 when the winter schedule was released
2010 new offpeak is how many flights now planned for the dead of winter
2009 peak is how many flights ran in last year's peak
2010 peak is how many flights planned for this year's peak

Tampa
2 2009 offpeak per week
7 2010 planned offpeak per week
7 2010 new offpeak per week

7 2009 peak per week
7 2010 peak per week

Orlando
21 2009 offpeak per week
21 2010 planned offpeak per week
21 2010 new offpeak per week

28 2009 peak per week
21 2010 peak per week

Fort Lauderdale
5 2009 offpeak per week
7 2010 planned offpeak per week
6 2010 new offpeak per week

7 2009 peak per week
7 2010 peak per week

Fort Myers
5 2009 offpeak per week
7 2010 planned offpeak per week
7 2010 new offpeak per week

14 2009 peak per week
14 2010 peak per week

Phoenix
1 2009 offpeak per week
7 2010 planned offpeak per week
0 2010 new offpeak per week

7 2009 peak per week
7 2010 peak per week

Los Angeles
0 2009 offpeak per week
14 2010 planned offpeak per week
12 2010 new offpeak per week

0 2009 peak per week
14 2010 peak per week

Las Vegas
12 2009 offpeak per week
21 2010 planned offpeak per week
12 2010 new offpeak per week

14 2009 peak per week
14 2010 peak per week (21 had been planned)

New York
14 2009 offpeak per week
21 2010 planned offpeak per week
21 2010 new offpeak per week

14 2009 peak per week
21 2010 peak per week

Baltimore
14 2009 offpeak per week
21 2010 planned offpeak per week
14 2010 new offpeak per week

14 2009 peak per week
14 2010 peak per week (21 had been planned)

I don't think it is coincidence that Phoenix, Las Vegas, Baltimore, and Orlando all are seeing cutbacks, either fewer flights than last year or fewer flights than were originally planned. Southwest is in town. But these are relatively minor trims and no real indication that serious changes pullbacks are coming. We'll see how this winter goes for everyone.

BlueHorseShoe2000

For whatever reason, MKE-PHX has been a hard nut to crack for a number of airlines.

Even when Northwest had its focus city in MKE, they had trouble making PHX work (despite sending some connecting and overflow hub traffic through MKE).

Both Midwest and U.S. Airways have each maintained 2 daily flights on this route for years (Midwest briefly ran 3 flights per day when AirTran first announced the market). Despite running very high loads most of the year, neither airline has had a desire to increase frequency.