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Seeking Advice: What to do with 420,000 Marriott Points

Seeking Advice: What to do with 420,000 Marriott Points

 
Old Jul 8, 2018, 4:24 pm
  #1  
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Seeking Advice: What to do with 420,000 Marriott Points

Was looking for some advice ahead of all of the changes come August, especially considering what looks like mostly negative changes to the Marriott Air/Hotel packages. Below are the particulars and considerations.

Travel goals: Hoping to go to Australia (via Dubai) in next 12 months. Hoping to also go somewhere in Europe on a different trip. Hoping to do at least biz class on all legs (I do have points/miles in other programs as well so certainly not thinking this redemption alone will get me everything I need). I'm definitely not oblivious to hotel nights/stays by any means as I think I could use them, especially the higher tier ones, but the airline miles are more important to me for sure. No matter what route I go, I think it's very unlikely I'll have booked (and redeemed) any sort of 7 night stay by the end of this month.

As for the 420K Marriott points, here are the scenarios I'm considering:

Option 1: Use them as 140K SPG points, which would be convertible to 175K miles for a future redemption.
Option 2: Use them now for an Air/Hotel package with 120K miles for Alaska and a Tier 1-3 package.
Option 3: Use them now for an Air/Hotel package with 120K miles for Alaska and a Cat 1-5 package (270K points), leaving me with 50K SPG points towards a future flight (really 60K with xfer bonus).
Option 4: Use them now for an Air/Hotel package with 120K miles for Alaska and a Cat 1-5 package (270K points) + buy enough SPG points (currently discounted by 35%) to make up the difference to buy a second Air/Hotel package with an additional 120K miles for Alaska and another Cat 1-5 package giving me 240K Alaska miles and 2 Cat 1-5 7 night stays (approximate out of pocket cost -- $900).

Obviously, there is a ton of speculation about what will happen with the 7 day certs come August with most thinking they will be cancelled and converted to points and credited back. Most also seem to think that the conversion to points won't be generous either. I'm willing to gamble on the hotel portion. I'm happy to hope for the best but expect the worst. There is risk with the miles too of course. Alaska could devalue at any moment too and some seem to think one is coming sooner rather than later. I could also put them into United with the 10% bonus, although that limits travel options but is probably safe on the devaluation front for now.

I currently lean towards option 2 or 4 from above. Option 2 is appealing because I would for sure use the stay at some point if the value stays the same and if it doesn't, the points return should be at least okay. Also no out of pocket costs. Option 4 is also appealing because 240K Alaska miles could go a fairly long way. Plus I assume that the hotel points back should also be okay in that scenario. $900 out of pocket though is not nothing, but it's still not a lot of money for what the potential return could be.

Anyway, just curious what others think and what you would do in my shoes and what you think represents the best value, given that there is some uncertainty and that no official plan is in place just yet for my travel goals.
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Old Jul 8, 2018, 4:46 pm
  #2  
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If airline miles are the most important, go with option 4.
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Old Jul 8, 2018, 5:17 pm
  #3  
 
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Keep them the changes not that bad if you found good rate pay cash other wise use them as you do before and forget August changes.
I have over 500k and i well use them like i always do expensive hotels for 5 nights wich is the best deal in my opinion.. travel package are good also but i have miles (credit card) so i dont need to use Marriott travel package now.
Have a good day
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Old Jul 8, 2018, 6:56 pm
  #4  
 
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Originally Posted by PumpkinSmasher

I currently lean towards option 2 or 4 from above.
Please keep in mind that you can only purchase up to 30K SPG in any given year. Unless you have family accounts registered to the same address you won't be able to purchase enough points under option 4 for two TP's.

420K MR + (30K SPG)*3 = 510K MR.

James
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Old Jul 8, 2018, 7:12 pm
  #5  
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Originally Posted by Flying for Fun
Please keep in mind that you can only purchase up to 30K SPG in any given year. Unless you have family accounts registered to the same address you won't be able to purchase enough points under option 4 for two TP's.

420K MR + (30K SPG)*3 = 510K MR.

James
Yes, my wife has an SPG account as well. Would buy 30K and then have her gift 15K to me.
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Old Jul 8, 2018, 7:13 pm
  #6  
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Originally Posted by weld3z
Keep them the changes not that bad if you found good rate pay cash other wise use them as you do before and forget August changes.
I have over 500k and i well use them like i always do expensive hotels for 5 nights wich is the best deal in my opinion.. travel package are good also but i have miles (credit card) so i dont need to use Marriott travel package now.
Have a good day
Thanks. Did you see this from The Points Guy? https://thepointsguy.com/guide/analy...-air-packages/

It doesn't really seem like it's a better deal to hold out to me. Unless you want JetBlue miles or something.
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Old Jul 8, 2018, 8:11 pm
  #7  
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Option 4 is probably your best bet though the EK redemption rates for AS in J/F to Australia are absurd -- you're looking at 240k/person for RT in J though if you have other miles to supplement option 4 gives you enough for 2x OW to get either to or from Australia via Dubai and you'd have to come up with the balance from somewhere else.
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Old Jul 9, 2018, 12:49 am
  #8  
 
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Originally Posted by PumpkinSmasher
Yes, my wife has an SPG account as well. Would buy 30K and then have her gift 15K to me.
Excellent, I have 440K MR & 3K SPG left (xferd 75K to KrisFlyer for 2 J awards) and thought of going that way too but decided to just go with a single Cat 8 TP and attach it to a week-long stay in Sydney during peak Southern Hemisphere summer. Ultimately, I would prefer an SPG property there but happy with the Marriott too if I can't change later. Marriott is currently Cat 8 going to Cat 5, SPG 5 staying at 5. Worst case scenario I overpay 30K, best case I get the preferred hotel and 30K back. I can live with that.

I don't want to completely deplete my MR account. It is nice to have a small stach for those last minute trips or for short stopovers when pricing is at a premium.

If maximizing value, the extra AS Miles would be the way to go if you are looking for international premium cabin flights. As an MVPG75K I don't redeem for awards within the AS network but I do earn about 240K RDM annually with AS so I am not so focused to spend additional dollars for the extra TP.

That is my evaluation for me.

If you are familiar with the AS program and it suits your needs, the $900 SPG purchase (regardless of the value of the certificate) is still much cheaper that the ~$3450 to buy 120K AS miles (un-bonused) through Alaska. 120K is enough for J North America - Australia return on one partner if you find availability.
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Last edited by Flying for Fun; Jul 9, 2018 at 1:02 am
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Old Jul 9, 2018, 9:31 am
  #9  
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Originally Posted by Flying for Fun
Excellent, I have 440K MR & 3K SPG left (xferd 75K to KrisFlyer for 2 J awards) and thought of going that way too but decided to just go with a single Cat 8 TP and attach it to a week-long stay in Sydney during peak Southern Hemisphere summer. Ultimately, I would prefer an SPG property there but happy with the Marriott too if I can't change later. Marriott is currently Cat 8 going to Cat 5, SPG 5 staying at 5. Worst case scenario I overpay 30K, best case I get the preferred hotel and 30K back. I can live with that.

I don't want to completely deplete my MR account. It is nice to have a small stach for those last minute trips or for short stopovers when pricing is at a premium.

If maximizing value, the extra AS Miles would be the way to go if you are looking for international premium cabin flights. As an MVPG75K I don't redeem for awards within the AS network but I do earn about 240K RDM annually with AS so I am not so focused to spend additional dollars for the extra TP.

That is my evaluation for me.

If you are familiar with the AS program and it suits your needs, the $900 SPG purchase (regardless of the value of the certificate) is still much cheaper that the ~$3450 to buy 120K AS miles (un-bonused) through Alaska. 120K is enough for J North America - Australia return on one partner if you find availability.
Great stuff. Thanks! Yeah, your situation is interesting. I think the Sydney option is a great one if you go that way. All of the hotels in Sydney are so expensive so that makes a lot of sense I think.

I definitely thought long and hard about option 2 from above (or even going with a current Marriott Cat 9 package) as I was considering the Marriott property in Crete. The Tier 1-3 was also appealing because I love staying at the Ritz in Marina Del Rey and could easily do a week there. But ultimately, the airline miles are more important to me than the hotel points, mostly just because I have a lot of Hilton points, a decent stash of Radisson points, and I can transfer Chase UR points to Hyatt if needed. I'm also not opposed to AirBnbs when traveling in some circumstances (I can use my Chase Ink Bold at Staples and get 5X points there).

AS miles are much harder for me to come by, so that's why that makes sense and it looks like I'm ultimately leaning towards option 4 from above. The big wildcard of course is if the 7 day hotel packages are indeed cancelled, what the return is going to be. I don't know if it's going to be made whole and I'm not expecting it to be, but I do also think it's going to be better than 45K points for the whole package as well. I just think there would be an uproar if it was that bad. So I guess we'll see.
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Old Jul 9, 2018, 2:03 pm
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Just a couple of curveball math equations here

1st 420 60 = 7

As of August there are going to be some really nice hotels bookable temporarily for 60k a night. So in theory you could book, with no cost out of pocket, 7 nights ( or possibly 8 if get the book 5 nights for cost of 4 like spg does - not sure if that'll be valid after August)

2nd 420 3 = 140

As of current a very good point value on spg is the category 2 hotels for 4,000 points per night. Sure you're talking about Sheratons or maybe alofts etc. nothing fancy but again free hotels with nothing out of pocket. That'd be 35 nights ( or more as only 3,000 points if weekend ).


valuation:

1st assuming get real nice hotel, think bora bora or prime location in Sydney or NYC / London I'd say $600 or so per night maybe little less.... so that total = $4,800 if get 8 nights. But me personally I'm not so sure that $4,800 is a true "yeah I'd normally spend that $4,800" unless planning an anniversary trip or something like that

2nd assuming could get a regular hotel for a little less than $100, let's say $90... so that'd total = $3,150 ( of course little higher if get weekends ). Now, I think this is a very true valuation and is money I would "normally spend" and furthermore from prior experience I've been able to book hotels worth $150 or so for 4,000 which kind of makes me think that is a bit undervalued!!! If redo that math at $150 we're talking over $5,000 value



Of course each of these situations is truly unique to the individual what fits your schedule, desired etc.
Me personally, I probably would consider one travel plan deal like you noted in OP and then really look around try to be flexible and book quite a few of those 3k/4k stays ( remember can book upto a year out ).
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Last edited by somedudefromFLa; Jul 9, 2018 at 2:10 pm
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Old Jul 9, 2018, 4:58 pm
  #11  
 
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Awards to Australia are very tough to come by, among the hardest anywhere.

Be sure you will be happy with your choice of airlines to park your miles in even if you couldn't get to Australia.

I find right now, Alaska is some of the toughest miles to use in business except perhaps for redemptions on JAL.
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Old Jul 9, 2018, 10:38 pm
  #12  
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Originally Posted by somedudefromFLa
Just a couple of curveball math equations here

1st 420 60 = 7

As of August there are going to be some really nice hotels bookable temporarily for 60k a night. So in theory you could book, with no cost out of pocket, 7 nights ( or possibly 8 if get the book 5 nights for cost of 4 like spg does - not sure if that'll be valid after August)

2nd 420 3 = 140

As of current a very good point value on spg is the category 2 hotels for 4,000 points per night. Sure you're talking about Sheratons or maybe alofts etc. nothing fancy but again free hotels with nothing out of pocket. That'd be 35 nights ( or more as only 3,000 points if weekend ).


valuation:

1st assuming get real nice hotel, think bora bora or prime location in Sydney or NYC / London I'd say $600 or so per night maybe little less.... so that total = $4,800 if get 8 nights. But me personally I'm not so sure that $4,800 is a true "yeah I'd normally spend that $4,800" unless planning an anniversary trip or something like that

2nd assuming could get a regular hotel for a little less than $100, let's say $90... so that'd total = $3,150 ( of course little higher if get weekends ). Now, I think this is a very true valuation and is money I would "normally spend" and furthermore from prior experience I've been able to book hotels worth $150 or so for 4,000 which kind of makes me think that is a bit undervalued!!! If redo that math at $150 we're talking over $5,000 value



Of course each of these situations is truly unique to the individual what fits your schedule, desired etc.
Me personally, I probably would consider one travel plan deal like you noted in OP and then really look around try to be flexible and book quite a few of those 3k/4k stays ( remember can book upto a year out ).
Great analysis! Really appreciate your thought and insight.

I think the issue I run into is that I can't lock in those stays at those prices for long. So even though I could potentially have lots of nights at that 3-4K range, I'd probably be left with booking just to book as I could come up with enough itineraries on the fly to utilize it all over the next year. But you do raise a good point...a lot of value to be had at those SPG properties before the new rates go into effect. I'm just not sure I'm primed to take advantage of it. I thought about the top tier property suggestion you made too. Don't really have one of those on the horizon. There's probably a great sweet spot to be had as well between the two, but again, I just don't know if I could book anything I was overwhelmed with before that time.
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Old Jul 9, 2018, 11:08 pm
  #13  
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Originally Posted by beachfan
Awards to Australia are very tough to come by, among the hardest anywhere.

Be sure you will be happy with your choice of airlines to park your miles in even if you couldn't get to Australia.

I find right now, Alaska is some of the toughest miles to use in business except perhaps for redemptions on JAL.
Really? Have you tried a lot of different airlines in biz or do you focus on particular ones? I had success on JAL (first) last year from Sydney to Tokyo and Tokyo to JFK. There also seems to be lots of Emirates availability in business. Not cheap, but with the stopover in Dubai, it doesn't seem as bad. Two packages should be enough round trip. I've heard that Korean Air is a good route to go as well to/from Australia, although I haven't looked too closely there (they had good availability when I considered it last go around to Australia). Same goes for Cathay Pacific.

The one option I haven't completed ruled out is United. I found availability pretty last minute to Australia in Business last year on United. They are not my favorite airline by any means, especially for such a long flight, but it wasn't bad at all. There is the added bonus with United of having lots of flexibility with flights to/from Europe on other partners in business as well. Do you like United miles as a better option for getting to Australia over Alaska?
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Old Jul 10, 2018, 3:49 am
  #14  
 
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Originally Posted by PumpkinSmasher

AS miles are much harder for me to come by, so that's why that makes sense and it looks like I'm ultimately leaning towards option 4 from above. The big wildcard of course is if the 7 day hotel packages are indeed cancelled, what the return is going to be. I don't know if it's going to be made whole and I'm not expecting it to be, but I do also think it's going to be better than 45K points for the whole package as well. I just think there would be an uproar if it was that bad. So I guess we'll see.
If AS are much harder for you and they will fufill your needs for award travel, I would still lean towards option four.

I ordered a Cat 8 TP today and attached it to the Sydney Harbour Marriott Hotel at Circular Quay for the third week of February. The 7 night stay is currently available with a Long Term Stay Rate that can be cancelled up to the day before @ A$419 per night. 7 nights = A$2,933. At today's rate, that is $2,187.82 USD They also advised that my 120K AS miles will post within 3 days.

I had already booked flights from LAX-HKG//HKG-BNE in J with a three day stopover in Hong Kong for 60K AS which includes YLW-SEA-LAX the day before in Y/F. Fees were about $100 USD. The cost for a revenue ticket on the same route and days is $5,417.71. My partner is getting the F award seat this time.

I had also already booked flights from HND-SFO-SEA-YLW on JL for our return in March. We are both in F, however, the cost for a revenue ticket for a J seat on the same route and dates is $5,457.81 and requires 60K as Miles.

The Cat 8 TP was 360K. I have a week long stay in Sydney and will get 120K AS miles to replenish the ones I used. The value of my package is $13,063.34 or 3.63 cents/point. Valuation is subjective. I would never pay out-of pocket for the experience but maximizing the porential of my loyalty programs is kind of a hobby. I would, however, still take the trip but would be happy flying Y and staying at a cheaper hotel. Those costs would be significantly less. You have to also consider the cost of flights & stays to attain Status and accumulate the miles/points. The real value is somewhere in between.

I enjoy flying much more than laying out on a beach drinking $20 Martinis. When I am in a new city I want to explore and sample the local cuisine. The hotel, for me, is a bed to sleep, not the destination of my vacation. If I can have an included breakfast with my loyalty, it is an additional bonus/savings.

After Sydney, we are doing a 9 segment, 4Y, 5J itinerary from SYD to TYO after crossing 5 continents the Pacific & the Atlantic Ocean.

As part of that Itinerary we will be stopping in Tahiti for an 8 day Tahitian Cruise after which I have booked two nights at the St. Regis Bora Bora. Two days is perfect. I wouldn't want to be there a week. Base rate is $767 USD a night for a 2700 sq/ft Villa with a private pool. It is a splurge, but there are so many other places to visit, I not sure when I will get back to Tahiti. It will be a nice end to the cruise before we head out for Easter Island.

While the opportunity to book some top properties for a maximum of 60K per night in the transition period is enticing, premium properties come with premium pricing and are more costly to get to. Some are isolated and once you are there, you are pretty much at the mercy of the property for overpriced food & beverage offerings.

In my case, the two nights at the St. Regis in Bora Bora requires a $500 return flight, (50 minute flight in each way) per person, from PPT and a $135 per person boat ride from/to the airport. If you decide to eat all your meals there, you are looking at $150-$200 per couple per meal depending on beverages. Your room rate is only a portion of the total costs so you need to consider everything together to see if that redemption works for you.

For me, I will save the 120K MR points and pay the rate for the two nights. You may think I am crazy, which I am! However, consider that post loyalty program merger, the same 60K miles per night will convert to 25K Airline Miles. A two-night stay would be 50K Airline Miles. While my outlay will be about $1800 USD, I would have lost opportunity in airline award potential that could save significantly more. In the AS program you could get CX J NA-SE Asia for 50K. LAX/SFO/ORD/EWR/JFK-HKG-BKK for same dates is $40 - $47. Alternatively, you could get JL Japan-DEL return in J for 50K while an out of pocket fare would be $46.

Certainly you could get quite a few free nights on lower category SPG properties and mazimize them by booking properties that will be increasing in the New Program, but you still need to get there!

James
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Old Jul 10, 2018, 10:36 am
  #15  
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Originally Posted by Flying for Fun
If AS are much harder for you and they will fufill your needs for award travel, I would still lean towards option four.

I ordered a Cat 8 TP today and attached it to the Sydney Harbour Marriott Hotel at Circular Quay for the third week of February. The 7 night stay is currently available with a Long Term Stay Rate that can be cancelled up to the day before @ A$419 per night. 7 nights = A$2,933. At today's rate, that is $2,187.82 USD They also advised that my 120K AS miles will post within 3 days.

I had already booked flights from LAX-HKG//HKG-BNE in J with a three day stopover in Hong Kong for 60K AS which includes YLW-SEA-LAX the day before in Y/F. Fees were about $100 USD. The cost for a revenue ticket on the same route and days is $5,417.71. My partner is getting the F award seat this time.

I had also already booked flights from HND-SFO-SEA-YLW on JL for our return in March. We are both in F, however, the cost for a revenue ticket for a J seat on the same route and dates is $5,457.81 and requires 60K as Miles.

The Cat 8 TP was 360K. I have a week long stay in Sydney and will get 120K AS miles to replenish the ones I used. The value of my package is $13,063.34 or 3.63 cents/point. Valuation is subjective. I would never pay out-of pocket for the experience but maximizing the porential of my loyalty programs is kind of a hobby. I would, however, still take the trip but would be happy flying Y and staying at a cheaper hotel. Those costs would be significantly less. You have to also consider the cost of flights & stays to attain Status and accumulate the miles/points. The real value is somewhere in between.

I enjoy flying much more than laying out on a beach drinking $20 Martinis. When I am in a new city I want to explore and sample the local cuisine. The hotel, for me, is a bed to sleep, not the destination of my vacation. If I can have an included breakfast with my loyalty, it is an additional bonus/savings.

After Sydney, we are doing a 9 segment, 4Y, 5J itinerary from SYD to TYO after crossing 5 continents the Pacific & the Atlantic Ocean.

As part of that Itinerary we will be stopping in Tahiti for an 8 day Tahitian Cruise after which I have booked two nights at the St. Regis Bora Bora. Two days is perfect. I wouldn't want to be there a week. Base rate is $767 USD a night for a 2700 sq/ft Villa with a private pool. It is a splurge, but there are so many other places to visit, I not sure when I will get back to Tahiti. It will be a nice end to the cruise before we head out for Easter Island.

While the opportunity to book some top properties for a maximum of 60K per night in the transition period is enticing, premium properties come with premium pricing and are more costly to get to. Some are isolated and once you are there, you are pretty much at the mercy of the property for overpriced food & beverage offerings.

In my case, the two nights at the St. Regis in Bora Bora requires a $500 return flight, (50 minute flight in each way) per person, from PPT and a $135 per person boat ride from/to the airport. If you decide to eat all your meals there, you are looking at $150-$200 per couple per meal depending on beverages. Your room rate is only a portion of the total costs so you need to consider everything together to see if that redemption works for you.

For me, I will save the 120K MR points and pay the rate for the two nights. You may think I am crazy, which I am! However, consider that post loyalty program merger, the same 60K miles per night will convert to 25K Airline Miles. A two-night stay would be 50K Airline Miles. While my outlay will be about $1800 USD, I would have lost opportunity in airline award potential that could save significantly more. In the AS program you could get CX J NA-SE Asia for 50K. LAX/SFO/ORD/EWR/JFK-HKG-BKK for same dates is $40 - $47. Alternatively, you could get JL Japan-DEL return in J for 50K while an out of pocket fare would be $46.

Certainly you could get quite a few free nights on lower category SPG properties and mazimize them by booking properties that will be increasing in the New Program, but you still need to get there!

James
Wow, awesome post! Sounds like you have a lot of incredible trips lined up and have really figured out how to maximize your points and miles to the fullest. Which leg are you looking forward to the most? I'm with you in that paying out of pocket sometimes is the way to go. That's why I'm ultimately leaning towards that option 4. $900 is not nothing, but if it means another 120K miles + some sort of hotel points, it seems well worth it. I take a similar approach to hotels/lodging too. Am not overly picky about hotels either. I do value location to a degree (if I'm staying in a big city, being in the center is valuable), but other than that, it is just a bed for the most part to me too. And it seems like for the most part, especially if you're willing to consider Airbnb, you should be able to find a decent place to stay in most cities for $100-120 a night. Obviously, there are some exceptions to that (mostly beachy places and some select other cities). But I've generally found that to be true outside of that. So as you correctly point out, much cheaper to buy hotel rooms (if needed) than business or first class tickets. Heck, even economy tickets are a bargain in comparison. It's pretty easy to rack up Hilton points too and although the rates aren't that great, it does the trick. Especially with Diamond status and if you have a partner opening up the same cards.

I still haven't pulled the trigger yet on what I'm going to do, but as I said still heavily leaning towards option 4. Waiting for my wife's SPG points to officially hit my account.
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