SPECULATION: Is a Points Devaluation Coming In August?
Jul 2, 2018, 9:27 pm
#151
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Programs: MR/SPG LT Titanium, AA LT PLT, UA SLV, Avis PreferredPlus
Posts: 30,993
Jul 2, 2018, 9:44 pm
#152
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Programs: MR/SPG LT Titanium, AA LT PLT, UA SLV, Avis PreferredPlus
Posts: 30,993
Jul 2, 2018, 9:49 pm
#153
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Programs: MR/SPG LT Titanium, AA LT PLT, UA SLV, Avis PreferredPlus
Posts: 30,993
Why is this labeled "SPECULATION"?
It is 100% certain even by Marriott's own admission.
The only question left is the choice of the preceding adjective: HORRIFIC, MASSIVE, EXPLOSIVE, UNREAL or HORRENDOUS
Because there is no other word that is appropriate hen you go from 45k per night to 95k per night for the same room with the same points.
It is 100% certain even by Marriott's own admission.
The only question left is the choice of the preceding adjective: HORRIFIC, MASSIVE, EXPLOSIVE, UNREAL or HORRENDOUS
Because there is no other word that is appropriate hen you go from 45k per night to 95k per night for the same room with the same points.
No 45k property went to 95k, as 95k isn't even a value on the award chart.
However, as noted above., less than 1/4 of 1% of properties that were 45K might be over 95k for some peak period of the year. So maybe 1/8 of 1%. I guess PRACTICALLY NON-EXISTENT will have to do.
(I'm still curious where Marriott's "own admission" of 45k to 95k ever existed)
Jul 2, 2018, 10:06 pm
#154
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 227
The place where they do the devaluation is availability, the same way the airlines did it.
i haven’t checked in the last four or five days, but aloft Bangkok had zero rooms available
for every date at the current chart (3k weekend, 4 k weekday). They are going up to 17,500 marriott
so roughly 6000 spg equivalent. They will sell you an award room now, but they will describe the room as
non standard, and get at least another 1000 for those words (There is very little difference in the aloft rooms, other
than floor number and views).
Now four points is going down to 12500, unless there is a last minute change to that plan. When 4p Bangkok was
lowest tier before , they also rarely had rooms at only the chart level, but one could get a room by paying extra points.
No matter, hotels in Bangkok will not stay at the 12500 level for long, and for the time that they are at category two
they will almost always be at peak season rates.
This is of course not as good as first half 2018, but second half 2018 will soon be considered the good old days, by
2021 I expect we will have full on dynamic pricing, with a point gravitating to two thirds of a cent, making it worth
arguably six tenths of a cent, as one does not earn points on point stays, and cash is good for many things, points
not so much.
i have other thoughts as well, but I don’t want to give anyone nightmares. The words “fair” and “enhancement” will
become part of the language. Not sure if you noticed, but since 1984 we have been living in a brave new world, and
words have opposite their original meaning. Chairman Kim is our best friend, Canada vile enemies.
i haven’t checked in the last four or five days, but aloft Bangkok had zero rooms available
for every date at the current chart (3k weekend, 4 k weekday). They are going up to 17,500 marriott
so roughly 6000 spg equivalent. They will sell you an award room now, but they will describe the room as
non standard, and get at least another 1000 for those words (There is very little difference in the aloft rooms, other
than floor number and views).
Now four points is going down to 12500, unless there is a last minute change to that plan. When 4p Bangkok was
lowest tier before , they also rarely had rooms at only the chart level, but one could get a room by paying extra points.
No matter, hotels in Bangkok will not stay at the 12500 level for long, and for the time that they are at category two
they will almost always be at peak season rates.
This is of course not as good as first half 2018, but second half 2018 will soon be considered the good old days, by
2021 I expect we will have full on dynamic pricing, with a point gravitating to two thirds of a cent, making it worth
arguably six tenths of a cent, as one does not earn points on point stays, and cash is good for many things, points
not so much.
i have other thoughts as well, but I don’t want to give anyone nightmares. The words “fair” and “enhancement” will
become part of the language. Not sure if you noticed, but since 1984 we have been living in a brave new world, and
words have opposite their original meaning. Chairman Kim is our best friend, Canada vile enemies.
Jul 2, 2018, 11:24 pm
#155
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Southern California, USA
Programs: Marriott Ambassador and LTT, UA Plat/LT Gold, AA Gold
Posts: 8,764
I collected all the data - it's really not that hard to collect 4000+ data points when the company provides a web page with 4000+ data points. Copy and paste.
All data was adjusted for SPG's 3:1 - it's really not that hard either.
If you take every single property and make it Peak every single day of the year, with post-2019 categories, and assumed every single SPG Cat 5+ property would be peak 0 days of the year, the increase is <15%, still way under the claims above.
You can send your check to Make-a-Wish Foundation, which provided wonderful services to my niece.
Or you can ignore the data and find a reason to back out. Your choice.
All data was adjusted for SPG's 3:1 - it's really not that hard either.
If you take every single property and make it Peak every single day of the year, with post-2019 categories, and assumed every single SPG Cat 5+ property would be peak 0 days of the year, the increase is <15%, still way under the claims above.
You can send your check to Make-a-Wish Foundation, which provided wonderful services to my niece.
Or you can ignore the data and find a reason to back out. Your choice.
Jul 2, 2018, 11:36 pm
#156
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Southern California, USA
Programs: Marriott Ambassador and LTT, UA Plat/LT Gold, AA Gold
Posts: 8,764
This is part of the reason why fears of devaluation are overblown. Marriott elites aren’t used to properties in SPG Cat 6 and 7 that typically command much higher ADRs and therefore need to command higher award prices. The reset will push a lot of Marriott properties lower on the new Cat 1-8 scale than was true in the older Cat 1-9 scale.
The truth hurts.
Marriott’s non-RC portfolio—even at the top categories 8 and 9–had almost no aspirational and wold-class hotels. Compare that to SPG’s portfolio which had its top category 6 and 7 hotels among the world’s best in far more case than need to be discussed. The comparison is painful.
The proof is in the pudding. Marriott agreed, and that’s why the overwhelming majority of new Category 7 and 8 hotels in the New Marriott portfolio are former SPG hotels with a few RC properties. That’s also why the overwhelming majority of former Marriott Category 8 and 9 hotels are in the New Marriott Category 5 and 6 hotels.
Last edited by bhrubin; Jul 3, 2018 at 10:14 am
Jul 3, 2018, 4:44 am
#157
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2005
Programs: Delta Diamond, Marriott Ambassador & Lifetime Titanium, Hertz President's Circle, United Silver
Posts: 6,334
Jul 3, 2018, 6:08 am
#158
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: CHS
Programs: UA GS, Bonvoy Amabassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 2,589
They also address that there is a set number of time they can set peak, off peak etc....
In addition you will also be earning many more points on stays
Jul 3, 2018, 6:12 am
#159
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2005
Programs: Delta Diamond, Marriott Ambassador & Lifetime Titanium, Hertz President's Circle, United Silver
Posts: 6,334
Jul 3, 2018, 6:16 am
#160
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: CHS
Programs: UA GS, Bonvoy Amabassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 2,589
Someplace like maldive or HNL couldn't make it peak year round - which was the question "What stops a hotel from making it peak rates year round?"
Jul 3, 2018, 6:19 am
#161
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2005
Programs: Delta Diamond, Marriott Ambassador & Lifetime Titanium, Hertz President's Circle, United Silver
Posts: 6,334
Yeah, i don't think anything has come out, but it was either the interview or a FAQ by the lurker where they said that there has to be X weeks of normal and x weeks of off peak each year.
Someplace like maldive or HNL couldn't make it peak year round - which was the question "What stops a hotel from making it peak rates year round?"
Someplace like maldive or HNL couldn't make it peak year round - which was the question "What stops a hotel from making it peak rates year round?"
Jul 3, 2018, 6:34 am
#162
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: CHS
Programs: UA GS, Bonvoy Amabassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 2,589
Q: How will Marriott determine when to use Off-Peak/Standard/Peak award pricing?
A: This will largely be based on expected seasonal or event-driven demand at a hotel. During TPG’s live Q&A session with Marriott’s head of loyalty, we learned that Marriott expects to have roughly the same number of peak and off-peak award nights available across the entire portfolio at any given time. While this might not help you get a cheap summer getaway to Hawaii, it means you’ll be able to get a good deal on other properties elsewhere in the world during the same time.from here; https://thepointsguy.com/news/faqs-n...yalty-program/
May not be what you want to hear, but for me, i was personally OK with it as i tend to vacation off the beaten path, so i am personally looking forward to enjoying quite a bit of "off Peak" hotels
Jul 3, 2018, 7:11 am
#163
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,555
This is concerning: "same number of peak and non-peak award nights available across the entire portfolio at any given time." The reality is that, worldwide, it should probably be about 10% peak and 90% off-peak most times of the year, with a few notable exceptions (Christmas / New Year's, etc.).
Half of the world is not having a major event or extreme demand right now.
We already pay for generally high award demand locations like London, Paris, and Hawaii through the very high categories on often-average hotels that would be much lower categories elsewhere. They shouldn't be using "peak" to stack on top of that just because.
Half of the world is not having a major event or extreme demand right now.
We already pay for generally high award demand locations like London, Paris, and Hawaii through the very high categories on often-average hotels that would be much lower categories elsewhere. They shouldn't be using "peak" to stack on top of that just because.
Jul 3, 2018, 7:24 am
#164
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2005
Programs: Delta Diamond, Marriott Ambassador & Lifetime Titanium, Hertz President's Circle, United Silver
Posts: 6,334
This is concerning: "same number of peak and non-peak award nights available across the entire portfolio at any given time." The reality is that, worldwide, it should probably be about 10% peak and 90% off-peak most times of the year, with a few notable exceptions (Christmas / New Year's, etc.).
Half of the world is not having a major event or extreme demand right now.
We already pay for generally high award demand locations like London, Paris, and Hawaii through the very high categories on often-average hotels that would be much lower categories elsewhere. They shouldn't be using "peak" to stack on top of that just because.
Half of the world is not having a major event or extreme demand right now.
We already pay for generally high award demand locations like London, Paris, and Hawaii through the very high categories on often-average hotels that would be much lower categories elsewhere. They shouldn't be using "peak" to stack on top of that just because.
Jul 3, 2018, 6:40 pm
#165
Join Date: Oct 2001
Programs: LTP, PP
Posts: 8,698
I collected all the data - it's really not that hard to collect 4000+ data points when the company provides a web page with 4000+ data points. Copy and paste.
All data was adjusted for SPG's 3:1 - it's really not that hard either.
If you take every single property and make it Peak every single day of the year, with post-2019 categories, and assumed every single SPG Cat 5+ property would be peak 0 days of the year, the increase is <15%, still way under the claims above.
You can send your check to Make-a-Wish Foundation, which provided wonderful services to my niece.
Or you can ignore the data and find a reason to back out. Your choice.
All data was adjusted for SPG's 3:1 - it's really not that hard either.
If you take every single property and make it Peak every single day of the year, with post-2019 categories, and assumed every single SPG Cat 5+ property would be peak 0 days of the year, the increase is <15%, still way under the claims above.
You can send your check to Make-a-Wish Foundation, which provided wonderful services to my niece.
Or you can ignore the data and find a reason to back out. Your choice.
Put aside all the macro data analysis aside though. I retired from 20 years of business travel and 100% Marriott 3 years ago and was left with 400,000 in points and LTP.
True story, for a year now I was planning on taking my new Greek wife to the Domes for week when our baby got just a bit older and a week at he NYC JW Essex where I had a few nice one night stays on business . Guess which 2 properties got slammed? If you are able to or want to travel to some 4000+ properties the data may make sense. My situation is screwed, as predicted.