Alternatively,

Some folks are *speculatively* attaching certificates to hotels, *some of which plan on staying at*, with the theory the cert will be returned to the new category at the time of change. These folks are well aware how Marriott, and any other frequent flier program, has handled refunds after an award price change, by refunding the original amount. These folks also realize this will not be physically possible, as the old category instrument will not exist, such that they will have a niche case that Marriott *may* treat as a cert that was attached after Aug18, thus *upgrading* their cert. The basis for this artbitrage is that Marriott errors in the side of simple IT/CS solution for a small population in the midst of a major merger with a deadline. Some may also read tea levels of no communicating anything officially in advance, others may find no tea leaves at all.

There is a possibility Marriott does a point equivalent cert conversion, such that the detached cert could be treated the same, thus not providing any incremental value over leaving it floating in the first place.

There is also a possibility Marriott handles floaters differently than detachers, such that they may well indeed be better off than attaching than floating. Lurker has echo’ed vague comments from MR to this end, but that is left up to the user to interpret.

There is also a possibility that Marriott force refunds floaters and/or detachers at the surrender rate. Most reasonable people would agree that won’t happen. Marriott is not going to crucify someone for having a change in travel plans well in advance of the stated cancelation policy, which is only an issue because Marriott changes the category architecture. So the downside risk is presumed to be small.

In the end, some people are making educated bets, where they deduce the risk, reward, and probabilities thereof. To each their own. Other people don’t understand and/or agree, and for whatever reason like to be vocal about it in an inaccurate or non-objective manner.