Points vs Cash
 

Even with the 5th night free, it seems using points acquired at .89 cents each (40% bonus) still won't give you a better deal than paying cash, if you are Titanium and have a Chase or AMEX Bonvoy card.

On the surface, the points usage looks like 10% cheaper, but then once the forgone points earnings (23.5x) are calculated, the cash rate ends up ahead.

I have looked at properties in Bangkok, Japan and Australia. Perhaps there are good deals to be found, but they must be few and far between.

Points rates fluctuate a lot, as do cash rates. So just use the cheapest point rates and compare it to the most expensive cash rates. Now you can tell strangers on the Internet that you got a good deal.

More seriously, I don't think the part about a Chase or AMEX Bonvoy card is relevant. You could just as easily factor in 2% cashback or 3x credit card points or whatever else you would pay with.

Personally, I wouldn't buy points unless I need them immediately for a redemption and I end up better off than paying cash. This has always been the case for me, but especially now as it seems the redemption rates are more closely aligned to cash rates than ever before.

Yeah, it's quite difficult to break-even if you're buying points or trying to achieve a value equal to or greater than the cost of buying points with Marriott in many cities!

There's 32 properties in Bangkok and 353 dates on the Marriott booking calendar. That means there's 11296 date / hotel combinations that can be booked. Of those, you can achieve a value greater than or equal to 0.89 cpp on 702 date / hotel combos at the moment, which is about 6.2%.

Impressive data set. Is it from a public site? At just 6% it is no surprise I couldn't find a deal better than cash.

I do enjoy points bookings for their flexibility and the fact that a drop in points price can benefit us (if we notice the change). There is also an advantage in countries where the rates are based on number of guests.

I never buy points - I simply compare the points cost to the cash cost (of the cheapest non-prepaid cancellable rate) and see if it exceeds 0.8 USD cents per point. If it does, I will generally redeem. I also prioritize redemptions in Latin American countries that quote prices in USD as I have experienced exchange rate nonsense in several countries in the region that is avoided by paying in points.

Agree with post # 6. Also seeing the cash rates vary in Latin America on different rate plans more than 10%. ( Senior vs AA vs AmX) especially at the Resort locations. ( Los Suenos CR)

Well it depends on the redemption rate. If you're getting 2 cpp it does.

But in general buying points is a bad idea, absent some immediate need at confirmed value.

.89c/pt is a poor value considering that you are normally only seeing .7c/pt redemption value on average... and as you mentioned you'd need to be over the 1.2c/pt value taking into account the lost bonuses/cc earn etc.

Its all about lucking out on timing and rates...I just booked a hotel last week where I got 2.4 cents per point (comparing points to the lowest possible cash rate). There are deals, they just have to work for you

Exactly, and sometimes some hotels have insane cash rate (10k pts per night or $100) - however, if you look at other hotels in the nearby area you can find a room that is half the price but higher point rate (23k points/nights vs. $50). In that case we went for the cash rate because we know we can use the points better than that.

There certainly are deals out there, just fewer than before. You just have to be lucky/selective with your dates and where you are going.

One positive about points is that while occupancy (i.e., the 3rd or 4th adult) can affect the cash rate, the points rate remains unchanged.

Hakuba:
Feb: 52,000 points (1-4 adults) or ¥93,000 (2 adults), ¥105,000 (4 adults)
Mar: 38,000 points (1-4 adults) or ¥52,000 (2 adults), ¥64,000 (4 adults)

That's still a sweetspot for Marriott, but definitely not IHG and Hilton. I tried to use point to redeem a hotel in Korea and the next day after I made the reservation I got an email saying that they charge a 3rd person fee enclosing the T&C from IHG. I ended up cancelling the reservation because it makes zero sense to pay so much for an extra person.

For Hilton if you book a room in Narita: 2 people 25k, 3 people 58k. This doesn't even mean that the third person has lounge access in case the reservation is made by a HH D.

I too am frustrated by IHG. Some places have larger rooms, but won't allow them to be booked with points. Instead, we can only get a basic room with a ridiculously high 3rd person fee.
That said, I have been on a points stay a couple times before and upgraded to a room with a sofa bed. In those cases I was permitted to have a 3rd person stay at no extra cost. They even threw in breakfast for a 3rd for free. Not a policy to depend on though.

I do the same with hotels in Turkiye ;)