Radiation Station

They may have decided new “categories” on the back end that constrain a hotel to a certain range, which could be higher than the previous category. But it’s all just guessing on our part

Kacee

Yes, they probably have, at least for now. In some ways, the lower value examples are more interesting . . . for example, the night of March 1, the W Rome is also priced at 71.5k, with the lowest changeable cash rate of 446€. About 1/3 the value per point of a StR redemption for the same night.

yyzflyer

There are still points bargains out there. I tend to stumble over them as opposed to any advanced search technique. For example, I have a 2-night stopover to visit friends in Southwest Florida booked at a Springhill Suites for 30K points/night in March, using an expiring FNA for one of the nights. It was a good value versus the cash rate when I booked and now that rate is an eye-watering $588 a night + taxes and fees. All I can say is this better be the nicest Springhill Suites in the country.

gojko88

As several people above have stated, nowadays points seem to be the most useful for mid-range properties. I encountered some insane rates for Belgrade, Serbia in March (standard rooms at 180+ EUR/night) so I booked for 12k points/night instead.

Kacee

I would hardly call StR Rome mid-range.

gojko88

I wasn't referring to that particular conversation, sorry for the confusion.

Adelphos

I know that 120K point properties aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, but the apparent retention of a maximum redemption cap (despite the assumption that caps would be gone in 2023) also means that high end properties also retain a lot of value for points redemptions (as they do in all hotel programs).

For example, St Regis Aspen is pricing at 118,000 points per night next weekend. The cash rate (before taxes and fees) is $2,351. The assumption many has was that such a property would cost 335,000+ in points - because people assumed or feared Marriott would simply peg Bonvoy points at 0.7 cents per point or whatever and go full dynamic. The fact they haven’t done that is a pretty significant development.

Another example - plenty of availability remains for five night redemptions in the Maldives for overwater villas at points redemptions ranging from 82,750 points per night to 120,000 points per night this President’s Day weekend. Cash prices generally start at $1,500+.

Kacee

Let's hope this doesn't change. With cash rates sky high in many locations, a 90k per night redemption is not nearly so extravagant as it used to be. Just hope Marriott offers a decent promo soon so I can restore my points balance after draining it in anticipation of the devaluation.

Ken C

Have about a dozen awards redemptions I have been checking on a daily basis for the past month now. Today was the first day I noticed every award increase in points. Still haven’t noticed anything above 120k/night. Worst scenario was a 5 night trip to Puerto Rico in April that went up 64k overnight.

joeags

I started doing some searching here, and I do think that there may be a pattern.

The London Edition went down to a category 7 last year, so the range would have been 50-70K, and that fits in with the August booking. Then it appears it jumped this year back to a category 8, which would have put it in the 70-100K range. Most nights fit this still, but I have noticed multiple dates that are as high as 106K, so the category ranges are definitely tossed. Low is 76K, high is 106K though.

The St. Regis Rome was a category 8 last year, so 70-100K was its range. This year it is ranging from 70K to 106K.

Other random category 8 hotels last year and their next ~year range: Ritz-Carlton Tokyo - 74.5K - 106K; St Regis Bali - 76K - 106K; W Maldives - 71.5K - 106K; Ritz-Carlton San Francisco - only 106K.

Based on these 6 individual hotels, it looks like the new "category 8" range is 70 - 106K.

The new to 2022 "category 9" range goes up to 120K still based on these hotels: St Regis New York (down to 84K, which is less than the 90K to 120K "cat 9" range); Ritz-Carlton Bachelor Gulch (as low as 82K); St. Regis Bora Bora (as low as 92K); Gritti Palace (as low as 82K). I saw no dates above 120K.

And based on some more random searches:
"Category 7" - old range 50K - 70K, now ~47K - 74K
"Category 6" - old range 40K - 60K, now ~40K - 63K
"Category 5" - old range 30K - 40K, now ~30K - 42K
"Category 4" - old range 20K - 30K, still 30K max
"Category 3" - old range 12.5K - 22.5K, 21K max???

In short, based on around 60 searches, the old category 5, 6, 7 and 8 have increased in max price to 42K from 40K, 63K from 60K, 74K from 70K and 106K from 100K respectively. There doesn't appear to be any change to what I've called the new "Category 9," nor do the category 4 and below seem to have changed, although I couldn't find anything higher than 21K for the old Cat3 hotels (instead of 22.5K). Not that we have an official category list anymore, but I updated my spreadsheet with the changes of March, 2022.

margarita girl

I’m seeing the JW South Beach in SG (which was a cat 7) for as low as 42K pts. I booked a 5 night reservation in Nov 2022 for Jan 2023. My original rate was 239K pts. It has now dropped to 171K pts for the same 5 nights.

dafonz

I've been checking my reso here every day now. It's dropping an avg of 1k pts a day as my day nears

SPN Lifer

I greatly appreciate the use of category ranges. Thank you for this work.

If only Marriott would realize its value to guests

Kacee

But what's completely unknown is how they're setting the rates on particular dates. For example, pricing W and StR Rome at same points level (71.5k) when StR cash rate is 1200€+ and W is around 400€. With such broad ranges at each level, this is the difference between a strong redemption and a completely worthless one.

margarita girl

How many nights are you there?