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Confused about how to value marriott points

Confused about how to value marriott points

Old Apr 20, 21, 9:20 am
  #1  
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Confused about how to value marriott points

Guys - I've often read that marriott points are worth 0.9 cents. Looking at my options at a popular orlando vacation club, it's 300k for 7 nights or $1200 putting the valuation at 0.4 cents

In these instances, is it just better to pay with cash? I don't expect to flying for leisure for another 6 months at least (maybe more) so my question is - have you guys come across plenty of opportunities to hit that 0.9 cents valuation? I have chase reserve which gives me 50% bonus on redemption so that that $1200 would actually be 800k chase UR points

Thanks
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Old Apr 20, 21, 9:52 am
  #2  
 
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I don't put Marriott points at 0.9, but I also think it's higher than 0.4, so yes, cash would be the better here, especially considering you would not even pay by cash

Rates are still very much depressed, so cash has been the better route, consistently. That said, I had a quick in and out trip to Vegas last month, where I redeemed 20K, and I recall the cash price was around $250+ plus taxes/fees.
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Old Apr 20, 21, 2:09 pm
  #3  
 
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I've found Marriott points to be worth 0.5-0.6 cents. I never have enough to do the stay fifth night free (nor do I typically want to be in a place that long) and that is based on the properties I like to stay at. You may just want to try to figure out what properties you like and come up with your own valuation. If the valuation is better use points, if not use cash.
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Old Apr 20, 21, 6:10 pm
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Definitely depends on the going cash rate whether I use points or Cash. I just stayed at The Kierland Villas for three nights using 100000 Points and a 50K cert from the Brilliant CC During Spring Break. The room was going for over $600/night so the redemption was a great value for a 1 bedroom villa.
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Old Apr 21, 21, 2:50 am
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If you read one notorious website, you'll find their valuations to be quite high, because they live off of credit card sign-ups and keeping the companies happy.

The baseline for valuing a Marriott points is actually converting them to certain high-value airline miles. Alaska for example could easily be worth 2 cents per mile, which at 60k Marriott --> 25k AS gives you 0.83 cents per Marriott point.

Otherwise you're looking at fifth night free awards and those hotels that have wide variations in room rates (that you're booking at peak times) to get 0.7-0.8 cents.

If you take any random hotel with rates affected by the pandemic, you're not going to find any value to using points.
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Old Apr 21, 21, 6:33 am
  #6  
 
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Originally Posted by sam007 View Post
Guys - I've often read that marriott points are worth 0.9 cents. Looking at my options at a popular orlando vacation club, it's 300k for 7 nights or $1200 putting the valuation at 0.4 cents

In these instances, is it just better to pay with cash? I don't expect to flying for leisure for another 6 months at least (maybe more) so my question is - have you guys come across plenty of opportunities to hit that 0.9 cents valuation? I have chase reserve which gives me 50% bonus on redemption so that that $1200 would actually be 800k chase UR points

Thanks
Others have provided feedback on the value of Marriott points so I'll leave that alone.

On the Chase UR front, you would actually need 80,000 points for your example. The Chase UR points are valued at 50% bonus as you mention which means each provides 1.5 cents of value. So, for a $1,200 booking, you would need 1200/0.015 = 80,000 points. The nice thing about Chase UR points is that they don't play the game of low/high season. They provide you 1.5 cents of value which then directly relates to whatever the cash rate is. Of course, the cash rate is also open to fluctuation so you should also check what Marriot is offering on their points rate and decide which route makes sense for you ... cash / Marriott points / Chase UR points
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Old Apr 21, 21, 12:17 pm
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Join Date: Mar 2015
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I aim to redeem my Marriott points for 0.9-1.0 cents, and generally can get it, but the caveat is that for every 10-20 trips I book, maybe 1 ends up being on Marriott points. In other cases I end up using other points (such as Hilton) or booking a cash rate, often at a non-chain property (usually through hotels.com or AirBnb).

It feels like a major hassle to keep checking whether Marriott redemptions make sense - because most of the time they don't. I don't tend to stay in high end hotels, so not interested in $500-1000/night stays. There are the occasional cat 2/3 properties in the US that make sense, but it certainly takes a lot of effort to get a true 0.9+ cents redemption. By true I mean, compared to a cash price you would realistically pay for a stay in a given area, not compared to whatever overpriced rates the specific Marriott hotel is charging.
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Old Apr 21, 21, 2:26 pm
  #8  
ryw
 
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I try to get as close to 1.0 centers per point as possible - happy with 0.7 and up though - which is easier if you’re flexible about when you use points vs cash (and it’s easier to get closer to that goal when redeeming 5th night free awards).

Marriott’s category based point redemption system means that certain for dates/properties, it’s an insanely bad value to use points, and at other times you can get a pretty good deal. I tend not to redeem at high end properties though, I usually find category 4-5 to be the sweet spot.
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Old Apr 22, 21, 12:58 pm
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A 0.9 cpp redemption would be a 90th percentile redemption or a 99th percentile redemption during a pandemic. It really depends on how many vacations you take. If you take one vacation a year, you will find it worth redeeming once in every 10 years.
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Old Apr 22, 21, 1:40 pm
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Originally Posted by stvr View Post
A 0.9 cpp redemption would be a 90th percentile redemption or a 99th percentile redemption during a pandemic. It really depends on how many vacations you take. If you take one vacation a year, you will find it worth redeeming once in every 10 years.
I'm expecting to get over 1c per point this summer perhaps even close to 1.5c, prices are quite inflated in Hawaii, and I got my bookings in before everything went to peak award pricing. I'm not sure I would pay those cash rates but other folks certainly are. And this maths is just based on the base room.
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Old Apr 22, 21, 6:29 pm
  #11  
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thanks guys - very useful. I did book with Chase UR but also looking for a hotel price tracking website that monitors rates and alerts me if there is a big reduction

On a side note, I wish Chase UR was on airbnb too. Going to orlando for some reason I see so many homes with private pools going for $175/night with all taxes/cleaning included which is the same rate as the hotel room. But I may still choose the hotel room just to be around some people
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Old Apr 22, 21, 7:46 pm
  #12  
 
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Originally Posted by sam007 View Post
thanks guys - very useful. I did book with Chase UR but also looking for a hotel price tracking website that monitors rates and alerts me if there is a big reduction
Just be aware you probably won't earn points for that booking through Chase UR.
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Old Apr 22, 21, 9:44 pm
  #13  
 
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Originally Posted by escapefromphl View Post
Just be aware you probably won't earn points for that booking through Chase UR.
No elite benefits, either.....for stays booked with Chase as they use the Expedia platform. Also Expedia does add a few dollars in fees.

To me, I always try to get 1 cent/point for Marriott redemptions but it's not always easy. So I frequently compromise if I can get at least 0.7 cent/point or about 0.9 cent/point for 5 nights.
In 2019 I stayed in a Townplace Suites that cost 10k points or $92 cash rate($100 including taxes), roughly 1 cent/point.
Another Townplace Suites was 150k or $150+taxes...in that case more than 1 cent/point. Those were two rare examples at 1 cent/point without having to book 5 nights.

I can no longer get those amazing deals they once offered right after the merger with SPG.... Hotel Danieli in Venice for 60k when cash rate was like 500-700 EUR, and got upgraded to a 1k EUR room.
That was when all top tier hotels were capped at 60k.... During those few months the points were worth way more than 1 cent/point....
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Old Apr 22, 21, 9:52 pm
  #14  
 
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Last edited by yjc281; Apr 22, 21 at 9:53 pm Reason: duplicate post. technical error
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Old Apr 22, 21, 10:07 pm
  #15  
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Marriott points are going to continue to devalue, so I'm conditioning myself to burn at anything .7 cpp or higher.
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