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How likely is it that I'll need more points to book if I use points advance?

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How likely is it that I'll need more points to book if I use points advance?

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Old Mar 6, 2021, 7:44 pm
  #1  
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How likely is it that I'll need more points to book if I use points advance?

Apologies for not posting this to the generic "Points Advance" thread. The last activity there was a question posted in August that never got answered. So my guess is I'm not likely to get an answer there. If you feel otherwise, feel free to move it there, and sorry for the inconvenience.

Just booked an 8-night staying in an OWV w/pool at the Westin Maldives Resort in December using Marriott points plus cash upgrade.

Currently using the point advance feature as I don't have the full 430k points needed just yet (have about 370k between the 2 household accounts). The usual disclaimer popped up at the end of the reservation process saying that the number of points needed may go up between now and the time I actually have the points in my balance and apply them to the reservation. How likely is that to happen, given that Marriott just announced their category changes the other day and this hotel wasn't on the list? I assume the only scenario of a change is if they switch a standard day to a peak day, right? Again, my question is: how fast should I be getting those extra points into my account to avoid needing more points than the original booking?

I have switched our current CC spending to our Amex and Visa Marriott cards, but I'll also have about 50k+ UR points by the end of the month. I know that UR points are worth about double the value of Marriott points so a 1-to-1 conversion is far from optimal, but other than converting them to cash to pay off my balance, I have no other use for them right now. I already have plenty unused UA miles so I don't need them for that (plus I buy most of my tickets nowadays to get the EQD needed to keep my UA status). By my estimate, if I use my UR points and with additional CC spend in the short term, I could get to the 430K needed by mid- to late-April. If I didn't use the UR points, I'd probably reach the 430k threshold by sometime in July.

Unless someone pipes in to say the risk of an increase to the points needed is really low, to me the value proposition for converting UR to Marriott isn't that bad. Thoughts? TIA
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Old Mar 7, 2021, 3:42 am
  #2  
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I'm only seeing a couple of arrival dates in December where you would pay 430k points for 8 nights. I would say it's quite likely that the rate would increase by the time you get around to earning the points. Pricing is very dynamic - December 3rd might be off-peak/standard today and peak tomorrow, depending on what bookings come in.

I would book the cheapest 5-night block today with your existing points balance. Then you make a separate Points Advance reservation for the remaining 3 nights and apply points to that booking whenever you can. When you get to the hotel, they will easily merge the two bookings together, assuming you booked the same room type.
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Old Mar 7, 2021, 4:10 am
  #3  
 
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Originally Posted by craigthemif
I'm only seeing a couple of arrival dates in December where you would pay 430k points for 8 nights. I would say it's quite likely that the rate would increase by the time you get around to earning the points. Pricing is very dynamic - December 3rd might be off-peak/standard today and peak tomorrow, depending on what bookings come in.

I would book the cheapest 5-night block today with your existing points balance. Then you make a separate Points Advance reservation for the remaining 3 nights and apply points to that booking whenever you can. When you get to the hotel, they will easily merge the two bookings together, assuming you booked the same room type.
This is sound advice and then the preferable way otherwise you might end up owing 800k points if every night became peak suddenly.
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Old Mar 7, 2021, 5:46 pm
  #4  
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Originally Posted by craigthemif
I'm only seeing a couple of arrival dates in December where you would pay 430k points for 8 nights. I would say it's quite likely that the rate would increase by the time you get around to earning the points. Pricing is very dynamic - December 3rd might be off-peak/standard today and peak tomorrow, depending on what bookings come in.

I would book the cheapest 5-night block today with your existing points balance. Then you make a separate Points Advance reservation for the remaining 3 nights and apply points to that booking whenever you can. When you get to the hotel, they will easily merge the two bookings together, assuming you booked the same room type.
You are indeed correct on that statement. Most come up 440k or more. By fluke, my rez for Dec 2-10 came to 430k (1 free night, 1 @70k, and 6 @60k).

Originally Posted by Intl359Widget
This is sound advice and then the preferable way otherwise you might end up owing 800k points if every night became peak suddenly.
Thank you both for the advice. I've only used points advance once before, for a 2 night stay in shoulder season in Zagreb, Croatia, so it wasn't an issue. I just wasn't sure how fluid the rates are and how often they may switch between off-peak, standard, and peak. I guess in my case the worst case scenario is 490k, but that's still a decent amount of extra points I'd have to find if I don't apply the points in time.
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Old Mar 25, 2021, 1:08 pm
  #5  
 
Join Date: Mar 2021
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I have a similar question - I'm booking St Regis Maldives in Feb, for a points + cash upgrade redemption for 6 nights at 500k points + cash, i.e. each night is 100k points plus cash, and a free night. I'm a little short (70k) My question is when using Points Advance:
a) can the cash amount change before redemption?
b) under what circumstances can the points rate change (it's already category 8 and peak pricing)?

Thanks!

Last edited by jackbauered; Mar 25, 2021 at 1:14 pm
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Old Mar 26, 2021, 1:55 am
  #6  
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Originally Posted by jackbauered
I have a similar question - I'm booking St Regis Maldives in Feb, for a points + cash upgrade redemption for 6 nights at 500k points + cash, i.e. each night is 100k points plus cash, and a free night. I'm a little short (70k) My question is when using Points Advance:
a) can the cash amount change before redemption? I am fairly certain that the cash portion doesn't change. The only scenario I can think of is if Trans Maldivian changes their seaplane fares, though I don't remember noticing any fine print with regards to that.

b) under what circumstances can the points rate change (it's already category 8 and peak pricing)? If you're at peak pricing already, I would assume you're pretty safe with the points as well.

Thanks!
FWIW, since some of my days weren't at peak pricing, my points advance reservation has actually gone up. One day switched from standard to peak pricing so now I need 10k extra points. Due to increased CC spending, I should be able to have the points needed by early April. Now I just have to hope no more days convert to peak pricing!!!
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Old Mar 27, 2022, 4:43 am
  #7  
 
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Given March 29 changes, will my point advance lock in current pre-March 29 redemption rate? I'm still short points (pending conversions), but might take a few days to finalise. It's also for St Regis Maldives, and already at Peak pricing of 100k points + 30k upgrade.
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Old Mar 27, 2022, 1:49 pm
  #8  
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Originally Posted by hphreak
Given March 29 changes, will my point advance lock in current pre-March 29 redemption rate? I'm still short points (pending conversions), but might take a few days to finalise. It's also for St Regis Maldives, and already at Peak pricing of 100k points + 30k upgrade.
No. Points Advance only holds the room, not the price.
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