beachfan

Excellent point to the distinction between awards offered vs Awards redeemed.

marpauly

Yes in my post above yours i had the same thinking process..but we know in 2018 Marriott properties in general in the USA were at about 76% capacity.Now that would mean that at peak dates were between 90-100% capacity and around 50% at off peak in a rough guestimate?!
ANALOGY......

So let's say each of the hotels in the points guy 200 hotel sample have 100 rooms that would mean 2000 rooms total per night.are avail let's say 10% of each night are award stays at all properties?

So in low season it would roughly be 1000 used nights(50% occupancy rate) x 10% award stays equals 100 award stays. x 24.6% at low pricing (now) .So that means that only 24.6% of 100 redemptions cost lower,so that means 24.5 room/night on average in low season are paid at low season rates.

Now in high season,it would mean those same hotel would have 1800 rooms booked(90% occupancy)x10% award stays equals 180 award stays x 19.5%(now)...So that means 19.5 % of 180 redemptions cost higher.so that means 35.1 rooms /night on average in peak season are paid at peak prices.

I don't understand how people think looking at those #'s equals saving,they don't because people travel and redeem more in peak season. A copy/pasted about percentage does not equal savings if they are not redeemed on points at the same percentage.

Worst these numbers willl change..I emailed to find out about the peak model and if they can change it on a whim and voila the answer i got....

This is the email i received from Marriott Bonvoy.

"Thank you for contacting Marriott Bonvoy™. I am happy to assist you with questions about our new Peak, Off-Peak and Standard redemption levels.

Within each of our eight hotel categories, there are three levels that determine the point cost for your redemption stay. Whether the nightly rate will be at the Standard, Peak or Off-Peak level is determined by current demand based on the season, hotel brand and location or special events that affect availability. The number of points required per night can change often based on demand. We strive to maintain a balance of rate levels at all times, generally with more locations offering Standard or Off-Peak pricing.

If you have additional questions, I will be happy to assist you.

In closing, I would like to thank you again for being our guest and a valued member of Marriott Bonvoy™

Best Regards,

xxxx
Internet Correspondence Specialist
Marriott Bonvoy™ Customer Care "





As you can now see the algorithm is part of it but in the most part the peak pricing introduction is based on demand and that to me means dynamic pricing with a high and low point min/max in each of the 8 category.

Marpauly

username

Is there some editing / quoting error here where it lead me to think that marpauly is:

Dan H
Internet Correspondence Specialist
Marriott Bonvoy™ Customer Care

???

but the account is not green to indicate company representative?

marpauly

Sorry i clarified the quote from the email i got from Marriott Bonvoy.I thought that stating that this was the email i got was clear but looking back it can cause confusion.

Thanks!

Marpauly

crimsona

I don't have much to contribute, but here's a file I manually created sampling various cities by month mostly at the category 5 and 6 levels. Some cat 8 as well. I have no coding skills to speak of, this was done by hand

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...ElE/edit#gid=0

Community editable

nycflyer17

Peak pricing is... When people want to redeem. Off peak... Is when people don't. Generally speaking. You'd need significantly more of an overall decrease in price of average available rooms to make up for this fact. There is absolutely no question that in terms of redemptions this is a devaluation.

Not to mention the can of worms that is the ability of Marriott to change prices every month, which doubtlessly will exacerbate the problem. If it turns out people want to go at some time Marriott hasn't anticipated, well then they'll jack up the award rates for that period.

beachfan

To be fair , there was plenty of notice about the devaluation- just not how it was implemented. But who among us didnt think it would be significant? They posted the max points.

Now I can stop muttering under my breath about my cousin who scheduled is wedding in NYC in February.

The points guys analysis was naive and misleading.

freed0m

When you want, you can pay up. Simple supply and demand.

The old charts distort supply and demand, making redemption inefficient for Marriott and hotels. When it is against hotels, hotels play games.

Off-peak/peak does improve the efficiency of supply and demand.

hopefully, with better supply demand efficiency, hotels play fewer games with availability.

MD/DC Flyer

Original points redemptions program was not based on supply and demand.

It was an arbitrage program - fixed price regardless to the cost.

Nothing wrong with moving to a rebate program (i.e. supply and demand) but let’s not pretend it is what it is not.

And if if the program have moved to a rebate one I’m not sure it is the best value.

mingzie

This has got to be one of the stupidest things I've heard.

Hilton points are easily 2-3x or more easier to earn. if you really want to compare, compare a 35k marriott to a 80k hilton because that's what the difference in points value is compared to earn / what each points is valued at. You can get a conrad maldives for what it takes to get a cat5 marriott if we compare points like for like.

That's like comparing us dollars to malaysian dollars and saying that 200 US dollars gets you more than 200 ringgit.

You can be a Marriott apologist but at least use some basic logic/maths. It is really really dumb to say that just because each point is worth 'more' that the value for money in redemptions is higher.

Also, please. There are high category hilton hotels that are way better than their Marriott equivalent. 85k Marriott points (valuation of 1c pp) vs Hilton (valuation of 0.4c pp), you are esentially paying 2.5x more for the same Marriott property. IT DOES NOT MATTER if one single point is worth more, what matters is the ease to obtain and the practical value.


I already did several maths calculations and you get at least 2-3x the HIlton points vs a Marriott stay. Therefore for a 85k property to be as good as a 85k Hilton property, it is 2-3x the cost. You are essentially comparing a $900 cost to a $400 cost, and even then the Hilton is sometimes better!! (Conrad Maldives over Sheraton for me, easy). However Marriott costs 85-100k ($1000-$1300 USD - 1-1.3cpp), while Hilton equivalent value is $450-500 USD (0.4-0.5c pp). Marriott points have NEVER been good value, only the travel packages were good. For that matter,even Hilton points are worthless now since they removed to a revenue based program.

I rather 2.5 nights at a Hilton than 1 at a Marriott. 35k points at Marriott is valued the same as AT LEAST 70k hilton points. Although you can use faulty logic to first think that this means Marriott points are 'worth' more, this also works the reverse way, this means the cost of 35k marriott points is actually the cost of 70k hilton points. Cat 5 marriott can sometimes be the same cost as a Maldives Hilton

freed0m

Hotel award redemption never the strong point of Marriott loyalty program, before or after the merge. Always thought Marriott points or SPG points are harder to earn and cash price not supporting redemption. There was only a brief period when top properties can be had at 60K, which is of great value. Marriott points are good for airlines miles, which makes it worth more. Old travel package is good, but no more.

Only top or bottom Hilton properties are worth for redemption.

Tanic

Actually the strong feature of Marriott Rewards was its point earnings and redemptions. MR was weak on elite recognition; in 10 years as a PP, I received only two suite upgrades in the USA without having to cajole the FD or sales manager.

freed0m

The earning is the same 10 points per USD as Hilton. Maybe better than SPG. With Hilton, there is bonus after bonus and points can be purchased outright.

Did not remember cheap to redeem because cash rate is often low enough and points can only be earned through stay as no credit card.

nycflyer17

Indeed, peak/off peak pricing is good for Marriott. Less value for us. That's all this is.

bhrubin

Yes, it is good for Marriott—and yet there’s also still plenty of value for us. The sky still isn’t falling: Marriott isn’t Hilton.