Marriott points worth so little
Dec 23, 2018, 5:18 pm
#91
Join Date: Jan 2000
Programs: UA 1k, AA EXPLT, NZ GE, VA PLT Hyatt Diam, Marr Plat, HH Diam
Posts: 3,445
that’s my valuation, too. On the basis that the last point earned has a value equal to when it is used (ie, the last point I ever redeem), the more points I have in my acccount, the less value each point has.
If someone has 1m points sitting in his account, and not planning to burn all of them in the next year or two, then I don’t see how the average point is worth more than 0.6 cents or so ... at least for my travel patterns.
The bloggers, reasonably, assume valuations based on current and not future redemptions. They and others often overstate values when compared to full-price costs, especially when comparing to air tix. A 140k transatlantic business award is NOT the equivalent to a USD 10k ticket purchase, for example, if the account holder would think $10k is a ridiculous amount to spend for that ticket. Similarly, hotel points are worth what the account holder would consider paying in $ for that hotel stay. If you “would” pay $700 to stay at a St Regis, then that’s the correct valuation. If you wanted to stay at that same St Regis, but only if you could do so for $350 per night, then that amount forms the basis for your point valuation.
Based on 30 years of playing the points games, I value MR at around 0.6 cents and Hyatt at around 1.1.
If someone has 1m points sitting in his account, and not planning to burn all of them in the next year or two, then I don’t see how the average point is worth more than 0.6 cents or so ... at least for my travel patterns.
The bloggers, reasonably, assume valuations based on current and not future redemptions. They and others often overstate values when compared to full-price costs, especially when comparing to air tix. A 140k transatlantic business award is NOT the equivalent to a USD 10k ticket purchase, for example, if the account holder would think $10k is a ridiculous amount to spend for that ticket. Similarly, hotel points are worth what the account holder would consider paying in $ for that hotel stay. If you “would” pay $700 to stay at a St Regis, then that’s the correct valuation. If you wanted to stay at that same St Regis, but only if you could do so for $350 per night, then that amount forms the basis for your point valuation.
Based on 30 years of playing the points games, I value MR at around 0.6 cents and Hyatt at around 1.1.
Dec 23, 2018, 5:33 pm
#92
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: SFO
Posts: 487
that’s my valuation, too. On the basis that the last point earned has a value equal to when it is used (ie, the last point I ever redeem), the more points I have in my acccount, the less value each point has.
If someone has 1m points sitting in his account, and not planning to burn all of them in the next year or two, then I don’t see how the average point is worth more than 0.6 cents or so ... at least for my travel patterns.
The bloggers, reasonably, assume valuations based on current and not future redemptions. They and others often overstate values when compared to full-price costs, especially when comparing to air tix. A 140k transatlantic business award is NOT the equivalent to a USD 10k ticket purchase, for example, if the account holder would think $10k is a ridiculous amount to spend for that ticket. Similarly, hotel points are worth what the account holder would consider paying in $ for that hotel stay. If you “would” pay $700 to stay at a St Regis, then that’s the correct valuation. If you wanted to stay at that same St Regis, but only if you could do so for $350 per night, then that amount forms the basis for your point valuation.
Based on 30 years of playing the points games, I value MR at around 0.6 cents and Hyatt at around 1.1.
Dec 24, 2018, 2:52 pm
#93
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Florida
Posts: 29,762
And ironically, often at the House and Place brands. Have had a number of redemption between 8K and 12K when the rates were $120 to $180.
I think the mid-range i.e. 15K seems to be more close to 1, while both higher and low ends can be more close to 1.5 or even more.
I think the mid-range i.e. 15K seems to be more close to 1, while both higher and low ends can be more close to 1.5 or even more.
Dec 27, 2018, 8:32 am
#94
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: london
Programs: mileage plus
Posts: 11
it depends what band of hotel it is. for instance a Toronto airport Marriott you can get for 10,000 a night. where as if you went to manhattan you'd be paying over 30,000 a night. Just depends where and when you go.
Dec 27, 2018, 3:33 pm
#97
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,574
I use my Hyatt points for short, expensive reservations. Counting the impact of taxes and resort fees, I'm usually in the 2 cent range.
Did 3 nights at the Hyatt Centric Fisherman's Wharf in SF during peak fall season. Legit 2+ cpp, even comparing to paid rates at HIX and similar. *Every* hotel down to the Days Inn was $300+ per night, and the Hyatt, as it turns out, is a really nice hotel.
I'm still cautiously holding to about 1 cent as my Marriott valuation. I do that math based on the new Travel Packages pushing the miles to AS, where I still give them a conservative 1.5 cpm.
I'm losing faith in Hilton being worth much more than 0.6 cpp. Did a nice redemption at 1 cpp for a five-nighter in DC earlier this year, thanks to a points cap being in place during a max-peak travel week. But if the caps disappear, than HH is locked at a pretty boring, low rate. In the future, my stays with Hilton may be driven by the promotion at the time. In 2018 I've been earning 50+ points per dollar on most stays, thanks to Aspire + status bonus + promotions. Maybe if I'm lucky I'll get one more stay in at 95k per night in the Maldives or something. Eventually that program will be 100% Southwest-esque.
Did 3 nights at the Hyatt Centric Fisherman's Wharf in SF during peak fall season. Legit 2+ cpp, even comparing to paid rates at HIX and similar. *Every* hotel down to the Days Inn was $300+ per night, and the Hyatt, as it turns out, is a really nice hotel.
I'm still cautiously holding to about 1 cent as my Marriott valuation. I do that math based on the new Travel Packages pushing the miles to AS, where I still give them a conservative 1.5 cpm.
I'm losing faith in Hilton being worth much more than 0.6 cpp. Did a nice redemption at 1 cpp for a five-nighter in DC earlier this year, thanks to a points cap being in place during a max-peak travel week. But if the caps disappear, than HH is locked at a pretty boring, low rate. In the future, my stays with Hilton may be driven by the promotion at the time. In 2018 I've been earning 50+ points per dollar on most stays, thanks to Aspire + status bonus + promotions. Maybe if I'm lucky I'll get one more stay in at 95k per night in the Maldives or something. Eventually that program will be 100% Southwest-esque.
Dec 27, 2018, 5:18 pm
#98
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Danville, CA, USA;
Programs: UA 1MM, WN CP, Marriott LT Plat, Hilton Gold, IC Plat
Posts: 15,720
You can certainly find redemptions for over 1 cent if you are looking for it. Just plug in ski resorts around Christmas time.
But if you're not looking to ski at Christmas time, the "ease" of finding them isn't really relevant.
I have a spreadsheet for staying in Barcelona and Madrid next summer. Of the 25 properties I looked at, comparing points vs redemptions for that specific period, I found 3 properties over 1 cent - 1.006, 1.021, and 1.012. They averaged 0.84.
5th night free raised it to about 40% of the properties, but going to 6, 7, etc. nights starts bringing it back down.
But if you're not looking to ski at Christmas time, the "ease" of finding them isn't really relevant.
I have a spreadsheet for staying in Barcelona and Madrid next summer. Of the 25 properties I looked at, comparing points vs redemptions for that specific period, I found 3 properties over 1 cent - 1.006, 1.021, and 1.012. They averaged 0.84.
5th night free raised it to about 40% of the properties, but going to 6, 7, etc. nights starts bringing it back down.
But a recent last minute rez at an overpriced airport Marriott still yielded only .007 per point. Of course the real value is often a bit higher depending on taxes (but minus the points earned on a paid room).
As I don't have an unlimited supply of points, I typically look at the cash rate and the point value when making a redemption decision. If rate < $200 I will almost always pay cash as (1) The value per point is often low and (2) the rate doesn't break the bank. If rate >$300 I will rarely pay cash - that's just too rich for my blood once you factor taxes, resort fees, parking - particularly for multinight stays.
Concur - if I was OP I would pay cash for sure. Are Marriott points worth < old SPG points and Hyatt points? Yes. But you receive more points per $1 spent so it's relative. I'll still take MR points any day over HH points, as Marriott publishes honest award charts. In fact with the current temporarily discounted award rates on top SPG properties, one could argue that MR points are worth a lot more than HH points - if you want to use them for expensive resorts and 5* city properties.
Last edited by Boraxo; Dec 27, 2018 at 5:24 pm
Dec 27, 2018, 5:32 pm
#100
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,359
Safe Travels,
James
-James
Dec 27, 2018, 10:08 pm
#101
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Danville, CA, USA;
Programs: UA 1MM, WN CP, Marriott LT Plat, Hilton Gold, IC Plat
Posts: 15,720
Disagree with the Hilton Honors statement. Any program that lets you book a 5 night stay in Bali for 20,000 points is considered good value in my books. Again, if you're expecting to apply these points each and every time you travel you're doing it wrong. There are certain times and circumstances where points really do give you outsized value and you use them there. Obviously you wouldn't apply 40,000 MR points to a $100 hotel, that should go without saying. But there have been times where the rack rate was $200-$300 per night and the redemption rate was relatively low (i.e. 10,000 MR points).
For me what I need most are points I can use at resort and city properties where I am likely to stay with my family in the next few years. On average probably do 1-3 night stays at Sonoma/Napa, Lake Tahoe at least once a year. 4-5 night stays at ski resorts like Aspen/Vail/Whistler - every other year. 3-5 night stays in NYC, DC, Tokyo, major Euro cities (London/Paris/Rome etc.) - every 3-4 years. Plus assorted occasional trips to LA, Palm Desert, Scottsdale, etc.
Hyatt has been immensely useful for most of these locations except Europe. Marriott has done well pretty much everywhere but especially in Europe. IC has occasional flashes of brilliance in my world (e.g. Vegas, Prague, Osaka). Hilton has poor resort coverage and/or 2nd rate properties (i.e. Napa, Truckee) and only seems to have premium rooms available for peak periods in major cities. So Hilton is mostly worthless for me personally. Of course, YMMV, particularly if there is a WA at your favored destination.
Dec 28, 2018, 9:57 am
#102
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Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
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Just to save anybody who cares a few clicks: that 5,000 point Bali room is an airport Hilton Garden Inn that typically goes for about 40-50 bucks a night. Want it tonight? $45.
It gets referenced on the HH board from time to time. Tends to make some "best value" lists and looks like a perfectly nice airport hotel. If I had an early flight out, I'd certainly use 5k here.
But I wouldn't read too much more into it than that. Full-service resort awards in Bali in both programs tend to be in the middle category ranges, which is pretty much what you'd expect.
It gets referenced on the HH board from time to time. Tends to make some "best value" lists and looks like a perfectly nice airport hotel. If I had an early flight out, I'd certainly use 5k here.
But I wouldn't read too much more into it than that. Full-service resort awards in Bali in both programs tend to be in the middle category ranges, which is pretty much what you'd expect.
Dec 28, 2018, 11:02 pm
#103
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Bangkok
Programs: Marriott Bonvoy Titanium, BAEC Silver, TK Miles & Smiles Elite
Posts: 2,209
Now I'm confused with all this calculation to the decimal place for the value of one point. I'm staying for two nights at the Sheraton Grand Macau over NYE. I booked it for 35k points a night because I didn't want to pay the ~US$280 per night it was when I booked two months ago (value 0.8c per point). I checked the rate just now and it's ~US$450 per night (value 1.3c per point). So I am delighted that my points have appreciated in value in the meantime. Must the something to do with the falling stock market in the US.
I'm also using 60k points per night at the W Samui in April which currently are valued at just over 1c per point based on the room rate today but I'm expecting the room rate to increase between now and then to reap even greater value.
I guess the upshot is that the value per point figure itself can vary and people's perception of their value can vary. I wouldn't spend cash on either of those hotels at those rates (I've stayed at the Sheraton Grand Macau for ~US$120 before now so something stops me paying considerably more) so I consider the points an enabler whatever their monetary value.
I'm also using 60k points per night at the W Samui in April which currently are valued at just over 1c per point based on the room rate today but I'm expecting the room rate to increase between now and then to reap even greater value.
I guess the upshot is that the value per point figure itself can vary and people's perception of their value can vary. I wouldn't spend cash on either of those hotels at those rates (I've stayed at the Sheraton Grand Macau for ~US$120 before now so something stops me paying considerably more) so I consider the points an enabler whatever their monetary value.
Dec 29, 2018, 12:38 pm
#104
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Danville, CA, USA;
Programs: UA 1MM, WN CP, Marriott LT Plat, Hilton Gold, IC Plat
Posts: 15,720
I guess the upshot is that the value per point figure itself can vary and people's perception of their value can vary. I wouldn't spend cash on either of those hotels at those rates (I've stayed at the Sheraton Grand Macau for ~US$120 before now so something stops me paying considerably more) so I consider the points an enabler whatever their monetary value.
Dec 29, 2018, 12:46 pm
#105
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,359
Just to save anybody who cares a few clicks: that 5,000 point Bali room is an airport Hilton Garden Inn that typically goes for about 40-50 bucks a night. Want it tonight? $45.
It gets referenced on the HH board from time to time. Tends to make some "best value" lists and looks like a perfectly nice airport hotel. If I had an early flight out, I'd certainly use 5k here.
But I wouldn't read too much more into it than that. Full-service resort awards in Bali in both programs tend to be in the middle category ranges, which is pretty much what you'd expect.
It gets referenced on the HH board from time to time. Tends to make some "best value" lists and looks like a perfectly nice airport hotel. If I had an early flight out, I'd certainly use 5k here.
But I wouldn't read too much more into it than that. Full-service resort awards in Bali in both programs tend to be in the middle category ranges, which is pretty much what you'd expect.
Was it worth the redemption? I think so!
Safe Travels,
James