Am I Buying Points/Miles at 4 cents?

Old Sep 1, 2014, 7:56 am
  #1  
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Am I Buying Points/Miles at 4 cents?

Given how easy it is to get 5% using the Old Amex Blue ($500 GC less the 1% load fee), I'm basically forgoing 4% on all my non-bonus spend by using let's say my Starwood Amex. So aren't I essentially buying 1 SPG point for ~$0.04?

Please tell me I am missing something?
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 8:12 am
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Originally Posted by Songer5
Given how easy it is to get 5% using the Old Amex Blue ($500 GC less the 1% load fee), I'm basically forgoing 4% on all my non-bonus spend by using let's say my Starwood Amex. So aren't I essentially buying 1 SPG point for ~$0.04?

Please tell me I am missing something?
You are only buying at $0.04 if you choose to use the SPG for spend where you Could get 5% with blue. For non-bonus spend, blue is 1% and SPG is 1 point.

For non-bonus spend, you are "paying" $0.022 per point when you consider the opportunity cost of not using Barclay Arrival+ if you have sufficient reimbursable expenses.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 8:32 am
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Originally Posted by AFAM-DFW
You are only buying at $0.04 if you choose to use the SPG for spend where you Could get 5% with blue. For non-bonus spend, blue is 1% and SPG is 1 point.

For non-bonus spend, you are "paying" $0.022 per point when you consider the opportunity cost of not using Barclay Arrival+ if you have sufficient reimbursable expenses.
I meant it another way.

Let's say I have a $500 doctor bill that I need to pay. Option 1) Pay on my SPG Amex. Option 2) buy an extra VGC at a drugstore (and earn 5%, less the 1% load fee). Then I use the $500 GC to pay the doctor bill.

Option 1 nets me 500 SPG points. Option 2 nets me ~$20. I'm forgoing 4 cents/SPG point.

Last edited by Songer5; Sep 1, 2014 at 2:21 pm
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 8:50 am
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Originally Posted by Songer5
I meant it another way.

Let's say I have a $500 doctor bill that I need to pay. Option 1) Pay on my SPG Amex. Option 2) go buy a VGC at a drugstore (and earn 5%, less the 1% load fee). Then I use the $500 GC to pay the doctor bill.

Option 1 nets me 500 SPG points. Option 2 nets me ~$20. I'm forgoing 4 cents/SPG point.
What you describe is a 5% everywhere strategy. You are paying $0.04 per point but the extra step does have a time cost. The strategy also assumes an unlimited ability for bonused spend.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 11:22 am
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Originally Posted by AFAM-DFW
What you describe is a 5% everywhere strategy. You are paying $0.04 per point but the extra step does have a time cost. The strategy also assumes an unlimited ability for bonused spend.
Time cost + the benefit of diversification, at least for people that do relatively high MS.

While I think all us moderate-heavy MSers wish we could just throw $60-100k/month on Old Blue and be done with it, you're playing with fire IMO if you don't have high personal income and high amounts of other spending to justify it. So I personally diversify my spending between issuers.

You are a lot less risk for shutdown if you do $20k/mo with Chase, $20k/mo with AmEx, $20k/mo with Wells across multiple lines of credit rather than straight $60k with one AmEx product. As long as a card has about a 2% spread between my perceived value and cost, I'll consider it.

Something like Arrival+ or the plethora of 2% cards doesn't seem to have enough value for me to justify MS with personally once costs are factored in.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 12:12 pm
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Originally Posted by hamhead
Time cost + the benefit of diversification, at least for people that do relatively high MS.

While I think all us moderate-heavy MSers wish we could just throw $60-100k/month on Old Blue and be done with it, you're playing with fire IMO if you don't have high personal income and high amounts of other spending to justify it. So I personally diversify my spending between issuers.

You are a lot less risk for shutdown if you do $20k/mo with Chase, $20k/mo with AmEx, $20k/mo with Wells across multiple lines of credit rather than straight $60k with one AmEx product. As long as a card has about a 2% spread between my perceived value and cost, I'll consider it.

Something like Arrival+ or the plethora of 2% cards doesn't seem to have enough value for me to justify MS with personally once costs are factored in.
I am hitting Arrival, Venture, SPG, and HHonors hard. Arrival and Venture can cover Disney / flights on SW (when I run out of SW points) / cruises. SPG and HHonors for domestic hotels.

Again it depends on what you value, what type of travel you will be doing, what cards you have in your arsenal, and your upfront opportunity cost. Luckily I have access to VGCs with the lowest fees...so for every $5K I put on the Arrival / Venture I'm ahead ~$70-$80. With SPG (valued at 3 cents, which is what I have been able to get out of them the past few redemptions quite easily) I'm ahead ~$120.

Having a family with small children our travels, for the most part, are limited to domestic flights as taking small children overseas in first / biz would set you back a ton.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 12:15 pm
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Originally Posted by Songer5
Given how easy it is to get 5% using the Old Amex Blue ($500 GC less the 1% load fee), I'm basically forgoing 4% on all my non-bonus spend by using let's say my Starwood Amex. So aren't I essentially buying 1 SPG point for ~$0.04?

Please tell me I am missing something?
Your looking at this the wrong way IMO. Say you buy a VGC for $505.95, the $500 is null+void since that will be going back to Amex. You are paying $5.95 for 505 SPG points. Your paying $0.011 per point, redeem those points at $0.03 per point and your at a profit.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 12:58 pm
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Originally Posted by ftomasze
Your looking at this the wrong way IMO. Say you buy a VGC for $505.95, the $500 is null+void since that will be going back to Amex. You are paying $5.95 for 505 SPG points. Your paying $0.011 per point, redeem those points at $0.03 per point and your at a profit.
Yea but his point is saying that you could buy a VGC for 505.95 with the AmEx blue and earn $25.30 in cash back, less the 5.95 is $19.35. If you value SPG points at $0.03, then 505 x 0.03 = $15.15. If you MS on the blue and then just pay for the hotel, you'd come out ahead in $$ and get points too.

I agree with hamhead in that it's more about reducing risk and diversifying spend. Would I love to put 100k MS on the old blue @ CVS and make $4k in straight cash then pay for travels with that cash? Sure, but putting 100k spend a month on 1 card is highly suspicious for my income.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 1:03 pm
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Originally Posted by uneeq
Yea but his point is saying that you could buy a VGC for 505.95 with the AmEx blue and earn $25.30 in cash back, less the 5.95 is $19.35. If you value SPG points at $0.03, then 505 x 0.03 = $15.15. If you MS on the blue and then just pay for the hotel, you'd come out ahead in $$ and get points too.

I agree with hamhead in that it's more about reducing risk and diversifying spend. Would I love to put 100k MS on the old blue @ CVS and make $4k in straight cash then pay for travels with that cash? Sure, but putting 100k spend a month on 1 card is highly suspicious for my income.
I was putting it out there for those of us that don't have the old blue, see my first post referring to it all depending on what cards you have.

Of course 5% is better than a theoretical 1%, but we all don't have access to 5% cards.

And diversification is key, no one should place all their eggs in the same basket.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 1:56 pm
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Originally Posted by Songer5
Given how easy it is to get 5% using the Old Amex Blue ($500 GC less the 1% load fee), I'm basically forgoing 4% on all my non-bonus spend by using let's say my Starwood Amex. So aren't I essentially buying 1 SPG point for ~$0.04?

Please tell me I am missing something?
As others pointed out, you are correct, but to a limit.
Do as much as you can on 5% cards (limited by spend want to do on Amex, ability to buy GCs, ability to burn GCs with stores you have available, etc). If can spend more after that, incorporate other MS methods and other CCs.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 2:07 pm
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Originally Posted by ftomasze
I was putting it out there for those of us that don't have the old blue, see my first post referring to it all depending on what cards you have.

Of course 5% is better than a theoretical 1%, but we all don't have access to 5% cards.

And diversification is key, no one should place all their eggs in the same basket.
Last I checked, the Old Blue Amex giving 5% (albeit after $6500 initial spend) is still available, so I'm not sure why someone wouldn't have access to it.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 2:18 pm
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Originally Posted by Songer5
Last I checked, the Old Blue Amex giving 5% (albeit after $6500 initial spend) is still available, so I'm not sure why someone wouldn't have access to it.
It's not matter of not having access, it's a matter of not being ready to apply for it.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 2:24 pm
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Originally Posted by uneeq
Yea but his point is saying that you could buy a VGC for 505.95 with the AmEx blue and earn $25.30 in cash back, less the 5.95 is $19.35. If you value SPG points at $0.03, then 505 x 0.03 = $15.15. If you MS on the blue and then just pay for the hotel, you'd come out ahead in $$ and get points too.

I agree with hamhead in that it's more about reducing risk and diversifying spend. Would I love to put 100k MS on the old blue @ CVS and make $4k in straight cash then pay for travels with that cash? Sure, but putting 100k spend a month on 1 card is highly suspicious for my income.
Thanks for the collective feedback. It looks like my personal bar of award redemptions for SPG (and similar points) just went up to at least 4 cents/pt of value.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 2:53 pm
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Originally Posted by greek2me
Do as much as you can on 5% cards (limited by spend want to do on Amex, ability to buy GCs, ability to burn GCs with stores you have available, etc). If can spend more after that, incorporate other MS methods and other CCs.
^

DH has his blue, I have my blue so with separate accounts and at this time, we maximize it. we have no problems buying VGCs at qualified grocery stores and feeding them to Kate. as much as possible, I choose to buy the ones with lower AFs for more profit.
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Old Sep 1, 2014, 5:08 pm
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Originally Posted by Songer5
So aren't I essentially buying 1 SPG point for ~$0.04?
I don't know. Are you?
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