Mar 17, 2014, 3:08 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
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FlyerTalk members come from all walks of life and all parts of the world. We are as diverse in our makeup as we are alike in our passion for frequent flyer programs. Because we all bring a unique perspective to the forum, our collective experience is broadened, and we gain new insights.
Our diversity demands that we respect each other. Due to the inherent constraints of the Internet, humor, sarcasm, language and slang can be easily misinterpreted - especially when crossing cultural boundaries.
When posting a message, pay extra care to how it might be interpreted. And when you come across a post that offends you, read it with an eye toward giving the poster the benefit of the doubt.
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In order to a) keep the original thread focused on confirmed news and known facts, and b) allow folks a place to discuss their ideas about what might have happened, the MH370 moderators and Community Director have decided to open this thread.
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4. Overly / extravagantly exaggerative posts such as conspiracy theories, posts beyond the realm of science and known facts, etc. as well as posts with information that has been posted several times previously, information that has been posted in the News thread wiki or FAQ, may be deleted. E.g. the aircraft was vaporized.
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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread
Mar 23, 2014, 3:50 pm
#1066
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
Suppose the perpetrator's intent was to lose the plane completely with no trace whatsoever and no clue as to even what direction it had gone in. They would have followed exactly the route that was taken: west to avoid Indonesian radar; and then south to arrive undetected in the most remote part of the Indian ocean. Without those satellite pings (a detail it's quite likely they could have overlooked), that strategy would have been completely successful because with no clues the search area would have been impossibly large - so if that was the intent it's a completely logical thing to do.
The "why" is a different matter...
The "why" is a different matter...
Mar 23, 2014, 3:55 pm
#1067
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 16
Depends upon who you talk to, but really, there isn't unless you are willing to say there is a fatal flaw in EVERY theory that has been advanced so far.
And there is. There has not one single theory put forth by experts that hasn't had a hole or holes poked in it by other experts.
And there is. There has not one single theory put forth by experts that hasn't had a hole or holes poked in it by other experts.
Last edited by allynelaine; Mar 23, 2014 at 3:56 pm Reason: sp
Mar 23, 2014, 3:57 pm
#1068
Moderator: American AAdvantage
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
Suppose the perpetrator's intent was to lose the plane completely with no trace whatsoever and no clue as to even what direction it had gone in. They would have followed exactly the route that was taken: west to avoid Indonesian radar; and then south to arrive undetected in the most remote part of the Indian ocean. Without those satellite pings (which it's quite likely they could have overlooked), that strategy would have been completely successful because the search area would have been impossibly large - so if that was the intent it's a completely logical thing to do.
The "why" is a different matter...
The "why" is a different matter...
Mar 23, 2014, 4:08 pm
#1069
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: ATL
Posts: 16
Or many other paths of course.
If you take a random starting point on an arc and assume a speed then there will be a straight path that gets you to the next measured satellite arc. If you repeat that for the next hour then you will have another path. I think the trick is to choose a starting point where each subsequent path is a straight continuation of the previous one. If you can find one it is a good contender for the actual course, although speed and course variations could lead to getting a false 'simple' solution.
If you take a random starting point on an arc and assume a speed then there will be a straight path that gets you to the next measured satellite arc. If you repeat that for the next hour then you will have another path. I think the trick is to choose a starting point where each subsequent path is a straight continuation of the previous one. If you can find one it is a good contender for the actual course, although speed and course variations could lead to getting a false 'simple' solution.
Mar 23, 2014, 4:14 pm
#1070
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
But... they would have known they would be "painted" by RMAF radar, and would probably not have imagined the radar operators would have failed to notice and report their passage. Or thought that someone might have actually attempted an intercept, given Surat Thani RTAFB could have painted them uncomfortably close to the Thai border.
1. Would climbing to 45,000 ft reduced the chance of being spotted? Or else dropping to a low altitude as some have suggested?
2. They could be banking on RMAF or RTAFB not realizing the significance until they were long gone. It does appear that they took the very shortest path to the open ocean.
I admit it's not as elegant as one might like it to be though...
Hmm, is there a hole between radars they could fly through? Here's the map, i don't really know how to read it properly:
http://skyvector.com/?ll=6.384087808...lan=F.WS.IGARI
Last edited by polarbreeze; Mar 23, 2014 at 4:22 pm
Mar 23, 2014, 4:18 pm
#1071
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: SW London
Programs: BAEC Silver; Hilton Diamond;a miscellany of other hotel non-statuses
Posts: 3,607
If you KNEW the speed (say 400mph) and a starting point on an arc, and the next arc identified by the satellite (readings taken every hour) was closer to the satellite by 200 miles away, all we would know is that the plane traveled on a path 45 degrees from a tangent on the first arc to the new arc - but there would be 2 45 degree angles paths on which the plane could have travelled. If the next arc was 400 miles closer (or outward) AND you knew it was going 400mph, then, obviously, you'd know that the plane was headed perpendicular to a tangent on the arc.
.I would say if you assume a speed and starting point then you may find that you have that 45 degree path. If you then do the next segment (based on the same assumed speed) you may get a heading of 43 degrees for the next segment. But if you can find a starting point and speed where both segments have a 44 degree path that is a 'better' path to investigate.
If you increase the speed the path can be more tangential to the arcs (because the longer path can be covered in the available time), so there are many possible solutions. In the end intuition, a faint radar blip that only matches one path, or something 'special' like a due south heading might make some paths be better ones to focus on initially.
Last edited by EsherFlyer; Mar 23, 2014 at 4:28 pm
Mar 23, 2014, 4:19 pm
#1072
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 57,568
Given that it was after midnight, the chances of evading PMAF and RTAFB radar were probably very good.
Mar 23, 2014, 4:37 pm
#1073
Moderator: American AAdvantage
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
Hmm...
1. Would climbing to 45,000 ft reduced the chance of being spotted? Or else dropping to a low altitude as some have suggested?
2. They could be banking on RMAF or RTAFB not realizing the significance until they were long gone. It does appear that they took the very shortest path to the open ocean.
I admit it's not as elegant as one might like it to be though...
Hmm, is there a hole between radars they could fly through? Here's the map, i don't really know how to read it properly:
http://skyvector.com/?ll=6.384087808...lan=F.WS.IGARI
1. Would climbing to 45,000 ft reduced the chance of being spotted? Or else dropping to a low altitude as some have suggested?
2. They could be banking on RMAF or RTAFB not realizing the significance until they were long gone. It does appear that they took the very shortest path to the open ocean.
I admit it's not as elegant as one might like it to be though...
Hmm, is there a hole between radars they could fly through? Here's the map, i don't really know how to read it properly:
http://skyvector.com/?ll=6.384087808...lan=F.WS.IGARI
They were full broadside to Kota Bharu and apparel flew fairly close to over or just north of Butterworth and Penang - no way to hide, IMO. 200 nm (argh! autocorrect ugh!) range or so.
Some have speculated they could have tucked in with an SQ aircraft - again, without extensive formation experience and more agile aircraft equipped with night vision gear at the least, not likely at all.
Good to see my "old buddies" at AVEMCO are still doing well selling insurance (on the Skyvector site) to pilots; they only made money for me, no claims.
Last edited by JDiver; Mar 23, 2014 at 4:57 pm
Mar 23, 2014, 4:37 pm
#1074
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: San Francisco
Programs: Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, UA 1K, Hertz Platinum
Posts: 286
hmmm it's official that after turning left it dropped as low as 12,000'. All the experts now go back to a fire in the cockpit. Unless the ACARS and Transponder units caused the fire I don't buy it.
Mar 23, 2014, 4:51 pm
#1075
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
Where was that announced? Can you point us to it? What about the 45,000 ft?
Last edited by aBroadAbroad; Mar 23, 2014 at 9:16 pm Reason: Ongoing consecutive posts. Please use multiquote.
Mar 23, 2014, 4:53 pm
#1076
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: ATL
Posts: 16
Broadly agreed, but not sure if you're agreeing with me or not .
I would say if you assume a speed and starting point then you may find that you have that 45 degree path. If you then do the next segment (based on the same assumed speed) you may get a heading of 43 degrees for the next segment. But if you can find a starting point and speed where both segments have a 44 degree path that is a 'better' path to investigate.
If you increase the speed the path can be more tangential to the arcs (because the longer path can be covered in the available time), so there are many possible solutions. In the end intuition, a faint radar blip that only matches one path, or something 'special' like a due south heading might make some paths be better ones to focus on initially.
.I would say if you assume a speed and starting point then you may find that you have that 45 degree path. If you then do the next segment (based on the same assumed speed) you may get a heading of 43 degrees for the next segment. But if you can find a starting point and speed where both segments have a 44 degree path that is a 'better' path to investigate.
If you increase the speed the path can be more tangential to the arcs (because the longer path can be covered in the available time), so there are many possible solutions. In the end intuition, a faint radar blip that only matches one path, or something 'special' like a due south heading might make some paths be better ones to focus on initially.
Mar 23, 2014, 5:22 pm
#1077
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 44
CNN have just reported confirmation that between 1:19 and 2:40 am MH370 turned west from the South China Sea and dropped to 12000 ft to cross the Malaysian peninsula towards Langkawi.
That this is consistent with a catastrophic failure, or fire.
(This trajectory requires MH370 to cross the peninsula of Indonesia, then across the Indian Ocean, next stop Madagascar)
What they are not taking into account is the subsequent turn to waypoint Vampi, then N/E to waypoint Gival, then N/W to waypoint Igrex, and on the the Bay of Bengal.
The plane disappeared from military radar about 2:40 am, but it was headed towards the Andaman Islands at that time.
Only if you theorize that this catastrophic failure occurred after the Amdaman Islands can you make sense of the sequence of events, but then you have no explanation for the zigzag course change.
Placing the catastrophic failure before the plane reached Vampi makes no sense at all.
That this is consistent with a catastrophic failure, or fire.
(This trajectory requires MH370 to cross the peninsula of Indonesia, then across the Indian Ocean, next stop Madagascar)
What they are not taking into account is the subsequent turn to waypoint Vampi, then N/E to waypoint Gival, then N/W to waypoint Igrex, and on the the Bay of Bengal.
The plane disappeared from military radar about 2:40 am, but it was headed towards the Andaman Islands at that time.
Only if you theorize that this catastrophic failure occurred after the Amdaman Islands can you make sense of the sequence of events, but then you have no explanation for the zigzag course change.
Placing the catastrophic failure before the plane reached Vampi makes no sense at all.
Last edited by Wickerman; Mar 23, 2014 at 5:47 pm
Mar 23, 2014, 6:17 pm
#1078
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
CNN just reported that standard procedure for a sudden cabin depressurization is to do a 90 degree turn and descend rapidly to 12,000 ft. In fact they said that some aircraft do this exact manoeuvre automatically. Any experts here who can confirm this or is CNN making stuff up again? The 90 degree turn is the interesting part - the rapid descent is common sense.
Mar 23, 2014, 6:29 pm
#1079
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 537
Malaysia’s unwillingness to release the full cargo manifest from missing Flight MH370 will hamper the search effort...
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1226863022091
This is truly bizarre... why would they withhold this information
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1226863022091
This is truly bizarre... why would they withhold this information
I also do wonder about these alleged floating "debris" sightings, I have no idea when we will know if any of them are actually from the actual plane and not some cargo fallen from some container ship. At this point, I just don't buy any of the latest news of about debris unless there is strong corroborating evidence it is linked to the Malaysian plane.
I feel so bad for the victim's families and friends, feeling distraught that the latest lead on debris turned out to be false closure. And this has been going for 2 weeks.
Last edited by cblaisd; Mar 23, 2014 at 11:08 pm Reason: Discussion and mischaracterization of moderation
Mar 23, 2014, 6:44 pm
#1080
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: iad/dca
Programs: UA Million Mile Gold, Club, AA, Delta, Marriott, Hertz G, A/Club
Posts: 1,106
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Natio...onnel-on-duty/ Two search and rescue trained officers are on standby during every shift and they immediately opened the Aeronautical Rescue Co..ordination Centre or ARCC.
“The officers called the air force, which confirmed they had detected the plane on their military radar but it had diverted from its path."
“The officers called the air force, which confirmed they had detected the plane on their military radar but it had diverted from its path."
Last edited by iquitos; Mar 23, 2014 at 8:14 pm