Mar 17, 2014, 3:08 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
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Welcome to the MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread
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FlyerTalk members come from all walks of life and all parts of the world. We are as diverse in our makeup as we are alike in our passion for frequent flyer programs. Because we all bring a unique perspective to the forum, our collective experience is broadened, and we gain new insights.
Our diversity demands that we respect each other. Due to the inherent constraints of the Internet, humor, sarcasm, language and slang can be easily misinterpreted - especially when crossing cultural boundaries.
When posting a message, pay extra care to how it might be interpreted. And when you come across a post that offends you, read it with an eye toward giving the poster the benefit of the doubt.
If you have an issue with a post, please contact the member privately or contact a moderator (click on the
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In order to a) keep the original thread focused on confirmed news and known facts, and b) allow folks a place to discuss their ideas about what might have happened, the MH370 moderators and Community Director have decided to open this thread.
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1. The normal FT TOS apply. (Including not discussing moderation actions on-thread). And please be particularly attentive to "discussing the idea and not the poster" when you have a disagreement. Civility and mutual respect are still expected and are what we owe each other as a community.
2. You are expected respect our diversity , and therefore refrain from posting inflammatory comments about race, religion, culture, politics, ethnicity, orientation, etc." Do not cite, copy, or report on such.
3. Please do continue to be attentive to the sensibilities of the families of those on the flight. Think about if you were them what you would and would not want to see posted. Speculation about what happened is permissible; please, though, do not indulge in inflammatory or overly-lurid descriptions that could well be hurtful.
4. Overly / extravagantly exaggerative posts such as conspiracy theories, posts beyond the realm of science and known facts, etc. as well as posts with information that has been posted several times previously, information that has been posted in the News thread wiki or FAQ, may be deleted. E.g. the aircraft was vaporized.
In terms of housekeeping, posts may get moved from the "news" thread if and as needed, and posts that do not conform to these simple expectations, above, will be deleted.
Also note: this wiki is locked; changes can only be made by moderators.
Thank you.
Your MH370 Moderation Team
aBroadAbroad; cblaisd; JDiver; l'etoile; NewbieRunner; oliver2002; Prospero
and Community Director
SanDiego1K
MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread
Mar 23, 2014, 2:46 pm
#1051
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 7,605
It was an official Malaysian announcement today. You will find it with Google. It was the main point of discussion on CNN in the last couple of hours. It's a rather important change because the alleged pre-programming was the primary (only, really) evidence that tended to rule out a mechanical emergency.
Mar 23, 2014, 2:47 pm
#1052
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
Agreed but it really changes the balance of probabilities a great deal.
Last edited by polarbreeze; Mar 23, 2014 at 3:07 pm Reason: Merged three consecutive posts by same poster -- please use multiquote or edit function
Mar 23, 2014, 3:09 pm
#1053
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 44
My point was, that flight MH370 was not noticed on radar as it exited the straits of Malacca. The plane made it out undetected.
Only hours (days?) later when the plane was reported as missing did the local radar operators go back to their tapes to look for the plane, this I think is the 'detection' you are referring to.
MH370 had not been seen because the transponder was switched off, so its radar image was a single small dot . with no identification attached to it.
Those northern countries have obviously not shared their radar data with Malaysia, they just told them "we have no data".
Actually, it would be very helpful to know exactly what radar evidence there is identifying the track that the plane took from the time (what time exactly?) it took that sharp left turn until the time it could no longer be tracked by radar. We saw some rather precise charts about that early on but not sure if it was some journalist's imagination or whether it is real, reliable radar information.
Mar 23, 2014, 3:12 pm
#1054
Senior Moderator, Moderator: Community Buzz and Ambassador: Miles & More (Lufthansa, Austrian, Swiss, and other partners)
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: 150km from MAN
Programs: LH SEN** HH Diamond
Posts: 29,510
MH370: Mystery call to Capt Zaharie 'mere speculation' - Police
Astro Awani | Updated: March 23, 2014
KUALA LUMPUR: Claims made by a UK tabloid of a phone call received by Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah from a number registered using a dubious identity just before the Malaysia Airlines (MAS) MH370 plane took off, were "mere speculations". ....
Astro Awani | Updated: March 23, 2014
KUALA LUMPUR: Claims made by a UK tabloid of a phone call received by Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah from a number registered using a dubious identity just before the Malaysia Airlines (MAS) MH370 plane took off, were "mere speculations". ....
Mar 23, 2014, 3:13 pm
#1055
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
Another sub-puzzle about the Pula Langkawi thing:
I think we can agree that MH370 was at one point somewhere near Pulau Langkawi airport. Question is, why was it there?
One theory is that it was planning to do an emergency landing there. But there surely would have been voice contact at that point, one way or another. The plane apparently was flying under control at that point so it's hard to believe that all its communications were disabled. But, suppose it wanted to land but all its voice communications were out so it could not contact ATC. What's the procedure in that case? Would a plane in distress but unable to make voice contact (a) attempt to land anyhow or (b) abort the landing. Can any experts answer that one?
On the other hand, if its failure to make voice contact was deliberate we seem to have a case of a bad guy flying a plane load of passengers to who knows where...
I think we can agree that MH370 was at one point somewhere near Pulau Langkawi airport. Question is, why was it there?
One theory is that it was planning to do an emergency landing there. But there surely would have been voice contact at that point, one way or another. The plane apparently was flying under control at that point so it's hard to believe that all its communications were disabled. But, suppose it wanted to land but all its voice communications were out so it could not contact ATC. What's the procedure in that case? Would a plane in distress but unable to make voice contact (a) attempt to land anyhow or (b) abort the landing. Can any experts answer that one?
On the other hand, if its failure to make voice contact was deliberate we seem to have a case of a bad guy flying a plane load of passengers to who knows where...
Mar 23, 2014, 3:18 pm
#1056
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 16
One theory is that it was planning to do an emergency landing there. But there surely would have been voice contact at that point, one way or another. The plane apparently was flying under control at that point so it's hard to believe that all its communications were disabled. So if there was no voice contact is is most likely that this was intentional and there was no intention to do an emergency landing.
There may have been no one capable of making a landing at that time.
Mar 23, 2014, 3:18 pm
#1057
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
Then there was some confusion about whether it was really MH370 or not (because it was primary radar, no transponder info). I wonder, actually, if there could still even be some doubt about that - perhaps it was another plane that was spotted by the primary radar.
Mar 23, 2014, 3:19 pm
#1058
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: SW London
Programs: BAEC Silver; Hilton Diamond;a miscellany of other hotel non-statuses
Posts: 3,607
Sure would. But I have to assume that the entire Inmarsat data has been taken into account in estimating the search area. (There I go, assuming again). I saw a quote saying that each ping was further away (from the satellite) than the last one, which is consistent with a plane in flight due south (or due north of course).
If you take a random starting point on an arc and assume a speed then there will be a straight path that gets you to the next measured satellite arc. If you repeat that for the next hour then you will have another path. I think the trick is to choose a starting point where each subsequent path is a straight continuation of the previous one. If you can find one it is a good contender for the actual course, although speed and course variations could lead to getting a false 'simple' solution.
Mar 23, 2014, 3:23 pm
#1059
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
If you take a random starting point on an arc and assume a speed then there will be a straight path that gets you to the next measured satellite arc. If you repeat that for the next hour then you will have another path. I think the trick is to choose a starting point where each subsequent path is a straight continuation of the previous one. If you can find one it is a good contender for the actual course, although speed and course variations could lead to getting a false 'simple' solution.
Last edited by aBroadAbroad; Mar 23, 2014 at 3:54 pm Reason: Merge consecutive posts
Mar 23, 2014, 3:26 pm
#1060
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: SW London
Programs: BAEC Silver; Hilton Diamond;a miscellany of other hotel non-statuses
Posts: 3,607
I haven't seen anything explaining the potential significance of some of the theorised events happening during the handoff from Malaysian to Vietnamese ATC.
Is it that the former would no longer be watching the movements, while the latter would not have started? Is this a longer / more useful comms break than doing something between voice transmissions while still under Malaysian watch? Presumably there is a radio frequency change and "Hello" message protocol that Vietnam would wait for?
Is it that the former would no longer be watching the movements, while the latter would not have started? Is this a longer / more useful comms break than doing something between voice transmissions while still under Malaysian watch? Presumably there is a radio frequency change and "Hello" message protocol that Vietnam would wait for?
Last edited by EsherFlyer; Mar 23, 2014 at 3:35 pm Reason: Clarified that I meant voice transmissions. Presuming other stuff keeps fixed frequency.
Mar 23, 2014, 3:32 pm
#1061
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
I haven't seen anything explaining the potential significance of some of the theorised events happening during the handoff from Malaysian to Vietnamese ATC.
Is it that the former would no longer be watching the movements, while the latter would not have started? Is this a longer / more useful comms break than doing something between transmissions while still under Malaysian watch?
Is it that the former would no longer be watching the movements, while the latter would not have started? Is this a longer / more useful comms break than doing something between transmissions while still under Malaysian watch?
Mar 23, 2014, 3:33 pm
#1062
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 44
The main thing seems to be that it's a really big coincidence that the plane did a sudden 90 degree turn right at that exact moment. It would certainly delay raising the alarm that the plane is going AWOL - which might suggest that the timing was deliberate. Or it might have been a really big extraordinary coincidence.
Mar 23, 2014, 3:34 pm
#1063
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 97
I also think it is very hard to make any speculation at this point, there are hundreds of specialists discussing this and even they don't agree. Everyone has a theory.
We can only hope that the plane is going to be found and the reason for its disappearance established.
Mar 23, 2014, 3:36 pm
#1064
Moderator: American AAdvantage
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
The term "zombie" can be used for an unidentified aircraft undetected or ignored by radar operators as well. But, yeah, the media will pick up on terms and run with 'em. (I like how in some countries, like the UK, they call most of these folks "news readers".)
Last edited by JDiver; Mar 23, 2014 at 3:42 pm