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Old Mar 17, 2014, 3:08 pm
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MORE about the MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread

In order to a) keep the original thread focused on confirmed news and known facts, and b) allow folks a place to discuss their ideas about what might have happened, the MH370 moderators and Community Director have decided to open this thread.

Here are the expectations:

1. The normal FT TOS apply. (Including not discussing moderation actions on-thread). And please be particularly attentive to "discussing the idea and not the poster" when you have a disagreement. Civility and mutual respect are still expected and are what we owe each other as a community.

2. You are expected respect our diversity , and therefore refrain from posting inflammatory comments about race, religion, culture, politics, ethnicity, orientation, etc." Do not cite, copy, or report on such.

3. Please do continue to be attentive to the sensibilities of the families of those on the flight. Think about if you were them what you would and would not want to see posted. Speculation about what happened is permissible; please, though, do not indulge in inflammatory or overly-lurid descriptions that could well be hurtful.

4. Overly / extravagantly exaggerative posts such as conspiracy theories, posts beyond the realm of science and known facts, etc. as well as posts with information that has been posted several times previously, information that has been posted in the News thread wiki or FAQ, may be deleted.
E.g. the aircraft was vaporized.

In terms of housekeeping, posts may get moved from the "news" thread if and as needed, and posts that do not conform to these simple expectations, above, will be deleted.

Also note: this wiki is locked; changes can only be made by moderators.

Thank you.

Your MH370 Moderation Team
aBroadAbroad; cblaisd; JDiver; l'etoile; NewbieRunner; oliver2002; Prospero
and Community Director
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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread

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Old Mar 20, 2014, 12:22 am
  #706  
dtc
 
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Originally Posted by venk
This may have been a more or less level flight into the ocean. The tail cone likely broke off like the Asiana flight in SF in the splash
It got torn off on the runway

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTXDalv7kNQ
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 12:33 am
  #707  
 
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Originally Posted by dtc
It got torn off on the runway

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTXDalv7kNQ
That is what I meant. If MH 370 just flew into the ocean gliding with no power, the tail cone would have broken off as soon as it hit the water just as the Asiana flight tail came off when it hit the end of the runway. Flying into water without a gentle flare as Captain Sully did in the Hudson would be like hitting land.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 12:38 am
  #708  
 
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Originally Posted by brett1982
so if that says middle east then this Australian find maybe something else? or did the next way point get put in incorrectly hence the turn south?...might be a long wait for the black box.
They would head north (turn right at Vampi) if going to Middle East on N571.

Alternatively, they'd head south (as MH370 perhaps has done) on N571 and who knows what the person in charge of the plane has done. There is insufficient knowledge to know whether they keyed in other waypoint(s) [possibly Cocos-Keeling Island and then Polum??]; or if they flew the plane manually on a southerly heading...your guess is as good as mine at the moment. There are no waypoints due south of Polum...

http://skyvector.com/?ll=-22.2565631...089:F.YM.POLUM
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 12:42 am
  #709  
 
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Originally Posted by venk
That is what I meant. If MH 370 just flew into the ocean gliding with no power, the tail cone would have broken off as soon as it hit the water just as the Asiana flight tail came off when it hit the end of the runway. Flying into water without a gentle flare as Captain Sully did in the Hudson would be like hitting land.
It has been done before in a large 767 of Ethiopian Airlines. This was the result. Luckily it came own in day light and shallow water just off the coast line.

Better footage here.

Last edited by ACARS; Mar 20, 2014 at 12:48 am
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 12:50 am
  #710  
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Originally Posted by GadgetFreak
The reports are somewhat conflicting, but it appears that there were multiple course changes after the initial one. If there weren't there would be a flight path to search, not arcs.
Incorrect. The reason for the arcs is the last known data on the aircraft position comes from pings recorded by Inmarsat satellite. From the data a distance from satellite is calculated, but not a direction or lat/long position. A constant distance from the satellite describes an arc on a 2-d map.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 1:38 am
  #711  
 
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Originally Posted by Pook
A 24m piece of debris still floating? Must had been a very gentle crash!
If the Australian report is correct, and MH370 actually ended up in the south Indian Ocean, it almost certainly went down at or about the time the aircraft ran out of fuel. (Otherwise, the plane would have crashed much closer to where it lost communications, etc.) A B777, like all modern commercial airliners, can glide without engine power for quite some time: depending on its configuration, a B777's glide ratio can exceed 20:1. This means MH370 could have glided 90 or so miles without fuel from its last reported altitude of FL235 at a fairly gentle rate of descent of ~900ft/min. Even if the captain and first officer were incapacitated when the aircraft went down, gliding is its natural state; the aircraft is designed for stable flight by default. The vast majority of airliner crashes involve a far more violent rate of descent or in-flight breakup -- see, e.g. AF447 -- but the available data suggest MH370 went out with a whimper, not a bang. As such, the likelihood of debris floating is much higher than is usually the case with this kind of event.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 1:48 am
  #712  
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Originally Posted by jbsay
gliding is its natural state; the aircraft is designed for stable flight by default.
Interesting; I knew that training aircraft (Cessnas, Diamonds, etc.) are designed for stable flight by default, but I thought that airliners weren't. Is the 777 unique among jet airliners or did my ground school professor misinform me?

FWIW, just did a quick Google search and came up with this:

Because the 777 is an unstable, relaxed-pitch-mode aircraft, a pitch rate sensor has been installed to assist in the control of the aircraft.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 2:19 am
  #713  
 
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The plane didn't glide; there's no way.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 2:21 am
  #714  
 
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Originally Posted by Nrg800
The finding of the debris is pretty much right on a mid oceanic ridge which makes it shallower than surrounding water, but still the depth at that location is 3,160m and the average for the surrounding 100km ranges from 3,454 - 1400m. Mean is 3,017.66m, with a standard deviation of 175.81m
That's actually not too bad. You can work with those depths, had it been those numbers plus 5000, then it gets tricky.

At any rate we should have a ship in the area shortly if it's on schedule.

Oh and ref the 56 knot speed shown for the vessel in line to be first on scene, Adler was due to have some work done in WA this month, she can pull 50 or maybe a little more and was due to head west after work was completed. It's conceivable that if she was within a couple of hundred NM at the time they may have let her have her head. If it is (and I'm not saying it is, it could well have been a mistake) her she'll be back in Fremantle soon enough, you don't wanna know her consumption rate at WOT . . .
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 2:45 am
  #715  
 
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Originally Posted by seattletravelguy
The plane didn't glide; there's no way.
Not sure I get this statement, no it won't glide on it's own but it's more than capable of gliding with a hand at the controls.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 3:05 am
  #716  
 
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It has been reported this possible debris was recorded by radars. Can anyone explain this?
There surely should be some signal to cause the radar reaction?
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 3:19 am
  #717  
 
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Originally Posted by userasc
It has been reported this possible debris was recorded by radars. Can anyone explain this? There surely should be some signal to cause the radar reaction?
I'll let the aeronautical experts address the perspective from above sea level, but from sea level, any number of things can generate a return: waves, rain, thunderstorms, birds, large marine mammals poking their heads, fins and tails out of the water, fishing gear, floating trees, floating containers, large patches of floating seaweed or other natural or artificial waste (rubber duckies), etc. -- granted not all (and perhaps none) of these things may be relevant to that particular area of sea, but these are all things which can generate a return on ship-based radar and which are covered and discussed in most radar operation courses.

Similarly, all of these things are well known to radar operators and can be filtered out by the correct software and tuning settings. Therefore, I'd imagine that they must have seen something quite substantial in order to have mentioned it at all. Whether or not the object(s) had anything to do with an aircraft is a different matter entirely, but it sounds like we will know quite soon.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 3:26 am
  #718  
 
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Originally Posted by trailboss99
Not sure I get this statement, no it won't glide on it's own but it's more than capable of gliding with a hand at the controls.
A 777 on autopilot that runs out of fuel will glide.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 3:26 am
  #719  
 
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Originally Posted by ExpatExp
I'll let the aeronautical experts address the perspective from above sea level, but from sea level, any number of things can generate a return: waves, rain, thunderstorms, birds, large marine mammals poking their heads, fins and tails out of the water, fishing gear, floating trees, floating containers, large patches of floating seaweed or other natural or artificial waste (rubber duckies), etc. -- granted not all (and perhaps none) of these things may be relevant to that particular area of sea, but these are all things which can generate a return on ship-based radar and which are covered and discussed in most radar operation courses.

Similarly, all of these things are well known to radar operators and can be filtered out by the correct software and tuning settings. Therefore, I'd imagine that they must have seen something quite substantial in order to have mentioned it at all. Whether or not the object(s) had anything to do with an aircraft is a different matter entirely, but it sounds like we will know quite soon.
Thank you! It has just been reported on SKY that US P8 went to the area and found nothing.. P8 is apparently able to perform some way of underwater search..

I hope they have satellite images for the next days and can follow from the images what happened to this object..
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 3:43 am
  #720  
 
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They are still investigating the north path too.. among other news - the transport minister said 'Malaysia is sending 2 aircraft to Kazakhstan' and they also spoke to Nepal.
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