Mar 16, 2014, 5:32 am
Last edit by: JDiver
This is ARCHIVE WEEK #1 (8 - 14 March UTC) of older posts from the original thread, MH 370 KUL-PEK Missing: now Search and Recovery [PLEASE SEE WIKI].
THIS THREAD HAS BEEN LOCKED.
MH 370 KUL-PEK Missing: 8 - 14 Mar 2014 UTC - ARCHIVE WEEK #1
Mar 11, 2014, 4:46 pm
#2356
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SGF
Programs: AS, AA, UA, AGR S (former 75K, GLD, 1K, and S+, now an elite peon)
Posts: 23,194
The 777 is still one of the safest aircraft in the air, statistically. One loss (no deaths) was due to now-addressed BA, Rolls Royce engine heat exchangers, another (OZ) apparently caused mainly by "human factors". The third, well, that's this one, and we really don't know anything about cause of loss.
Granted, it was on the ground, but it was still a hull loss.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_..._and_accidents
Mar 11, 2014, 4:52 pm
#2357
Join Date: May 2012
Location: NY
Programs: AA Plat Pro, KrisFlyer Elite Gold
Posts: 578
Pretty good summary of the airworthiness directive issue in feb in relation to the crash.
"There would have been an explosive loss of pressure at 35,000ft when the SATCOM antenna array disintegrated. The pilots, while disoriented would have done two things, try to take the plane down to below 30,000 feet and try to turn around to the nearest airport for an emergency landing. This is corroborated by the turnaround statement that was tracked by the Military Radar. This also explains why sites like FlightRadar24 and Flightaware lost the flight at the Igari checkpoint. ADS-B isn’t able to track aircraft flying below 30,000ft, but the plane still would have appeared on DCA and Military radar.
Now, the explosion would have taken out the entire SATCOM antenna array, so if the pilots did indeed try to send out a distress call over their normal communications channels, it would not have gone through. However they might not have been aware that their SATCOM antenna array is gone. There could have switched to other communication channels (VHF etc), but they might have been either disoriented, or they just felt that all communications were down. Its hard to speculate their condition and if they were able to get their oxygen masks on in time. Hypoxia (due to the lack of oxygen) can set in very fast, impair cognitive functioning of the brain and incapacitate a person in a short amount of time. Passenger oxygen masks on the 777 do not deploy until cabin altitude exceeds approximately 13,500, and passengers were likely unconscious by that time if it was a slow decompression."
basically, the argument is that the SATCOM antenna adapter plate experienced corrosion and possible cracking, leading to an eventual decompression event, which while not catastrophic, nonetheless resulted in the loss of communication. the pilots turned back, unable to communicate with ATC, and either blacked out do to hypoxia or something else. pretty convincing IMO
http://www.lowyat.net/2014/03/was-th...-200-aircraft/
"There would have been an explosive loss of pressure at 35,000ft when the SATCOM antenna array disintegrated. The pilots, while disoriented would have done two things, try to take the plane down to below 30,000 feet and try to turn around to the nearest airport for an emergency landing. This is corroborated by the turnaround statement that was tracked by the Military Radar. This also explains why sites like FlightRadar24 and Flightaware lost the flight at the Igari checkpoint. ADS-B isn’t able to track aircraft flying below 30,000ft, but the plane still would have appeared on DCA and Military radar.
Now, the explosion would have taken out the entire SATCOM antenna array, so if the pilots did indeed try to send out a distress call over their normal communications channels, it would not have gone through. However they might not have been aware that their SATCOM antenna array is gone. There could have switched to other communication channels (VHF etc), but they might have been either disoriented, or they just felt that all communications were down. Its hard to speculate their condition and if they were able to get their oxygen masks on in time. Hypoxia (due to the lack of oxygen) can set in very fast, impair cognitive functioning of the brain and incapacitate a person in a short amount of time. Passenger oxygen masks on the 777 do not deploy until cabin altitude exceeds approximately 13,500, and passengers were likely unconscious by that time if it was a slow decompression."
basically, the argument is that the SATCOM antenna adapter plate experienced corrosion and possible cracking, leading to an eventual decompression event, which while not catastrophic, nonetheless resulted in the loss of communication. the pilots turned back, unable to communicate with ATC, and either blacked out do to hypoxia or something else. pretty convincing IMO
http://www.lowyat.net/2014/03/was-th...-200-aircraft/
Last edited by sriegert; Mar 11, 2014 at 5:08 pm Reason: added quotation
Mar 11, 2014, 4:54 pm
#2358
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3
If the aircraft turned west and flew across Malaysia, is it plausible that the aircraft continued heading west at 30,000 feet across the Indian Ocean? It had enough fuel to reach China, and Sri Lanka is 1,000 miles closer. Just seems odd that the 777 climbed to cruise altitude, made a left turn, descended approx. 1000 feet (per Malaysian military) and made what appears to be a straight line west.
Mar 11, 2014, 5:09 pm
#2359
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: LAS
Programs: DL PM, UA PS, Hyatt Globalist, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 4,904
Mar 11, 2014, 5:10 pm
#2360
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 39
That's my read - one large cargo ship, with a smaller ship alongside - replenishment, pirates, drug smugglers, human traffickers? Dunno, wonder if AIS historical data can be used to identify?
Mar 11, 2014, 5:12 pm
#2361
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: UK
Programs: BA Silver, Marriott Titanium, Accor Plat, IHG Diamond
Posts: 651
Look at the URL, it's image #6060, Digital Globe will know where it is.
I can't access that site at present, it's frozen up !
This is the link from the CNN piece:
http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/...r2014/map/6060
I can't access that site at present, it's frozen up !
This is the link from the CNN piece:
http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/...r2014/map/6060
(Click to enlarge)
And the normal view is here
Unfortunetly this looks more like 2 boats to me...
(Other than that, Tomnod is working a lot better here tonight, I am using Chrome and it is fluid, not like yesterday where it was taking minutes to load a square)
Mar 11, 2014, 5:13 pm
#2362
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Cypress Hills Research Center
Posts: 5,295
I've finally managed to get on Tomnod but the images displayed were taken at around 3 am and I doubt that there would be much to see in the open ocean at that time of day. I didn't see any way to load images taken during actual daylight hours, is it possible to do so?
Last edited by uszkanni; Mar 11, 2014 at 5:19 pm
Mar 11, 2014, 5:17 pm
#2363
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 561
I've been following this story with interest and what is confusing me is the point of 'lost contact'. It was initially reported at 2:40am, but then that was changed to 1:30am (with the 2:40am being the time at which ATC reported it to the airline).
The new rumour seems to be that contact really was lost at 2:40 as originally reported (but in a completely different place). Was this new rumour made to 'fit' the original report?
The new rumour seems to be that contact really was lost at 2:40 as originally reported (but in a completely different place). Was this new rumour made to 'fit' the original report?
Mar 11, 2014, 5:24 pm
#2364
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Some hole
Posts: 2,783
I've been following this story with interest and what is confusing me is the point of 'lost contact'. It was initially reported at 2:40am, but then that was changed to 1:30am (with the 2:40am being the time at which ATC reported it to the airline).
The new rumour seems to be that contact really was lost at 2:40 as originally reported (but in a completely different place). Was this new rumour made to 'fit' the original report?
The new rumour seems to be that contact really was lost at 2:40 as originally reported (but in a completely different place). Was this new rumour made to 'fit' the original report?
Mar 11, 2014, 5:28 pm
#2365
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Between AUS, EWR, and YTO In a little twisty maze of airline seats, all alike.. but I wanna go home with the armadillo
Programs: CO, NW, & UA forum moderator emeritus
Posts: 35,407
Here's a straight-line path between the turn-around point (0130) and the lost contact over Pulau Perak (0240) overlaid on an aeronautical chart:
http://skyvector.com/?ll=6.422300071...5.6806,98.9408
Now, there's nothing to show this is the path the plane took, but just connecting the dots and following the assumption that the pilots may have not had control of the plane after the turn, it's interesting to note that the plane is not on an air route.
http://skyvector.com/?ll=6.422300071...5.6806,98.9408
Now, there's nothing to show this is the path the plane took, but just connecting the dots and following the assumption that the pilots may have not had control of the plane after the turn, it's interesting to note that the plane is not on an air route.
Last edited by cblaisd; Mar 11, 2014 at 5:50 pm
Mar 11, 2014, 5:34 pm
#2366
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: GCM
Posts: 1,009
It does look like 2 ships 2 me but saw this gif that's as posted on the cnn comments 
As per cnn post by tll74
I made an animated gif with an overlay of an intact 777: cmd0.com/images/plane.gif
Report violation
As per cnn post by tll74
I made an animated gif with an overlay of an intact 777: cmd0.com/images/plane.gif
Report violation
Last edited by joejet; Mar 11, 2014 at 5:40 pm Reason: Added cnn posters name and comment
Mar 11, 2014, 5:38 pm
#2367
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Murder Mitten
Posts: 298
Pretty good summary of the airworthiness directive issue in feb in relation to the crash.
"There would have been an explosive loss of pressure at 35,000ft when the SATCOM antenna array disintegrated. The pilots, while disoriented would have done two things, try to take the plane down to below 30,000 feet and try to turn around to the nearest airport for an emergency landing. This is corroborated by the turnaround statement that was tracked by the Military Radar. This also explains why sites like FlightRadar24 and Flightaware lost the flight at the Igari checkpoint. ADS-B isn’t able to track aircraft flying below 30,000ft, but the plane still would have appeared on DCA and Military radar.
Now, the explosion would have taken out the entire SATCOM antenna array, so if the pilots did indeed try to send out a distress call over their normal communications channels, it would not have gone through. However they might not have been aware that their SATCOM antenna array is gone. There could have switched to other communication channels (VHF etc), but they might have been either disoriented, or they just felt that all communications were down. Its hard to speculate their condition and if they were able to get their oxygen masks on in time. Hypoxia (due to the lack of oxygen) can set in very fast, impair cognitive functioning of the brain and incapacitate a person in a short amount of time. Passenger oxygen masks on the 777 do not deploy until cabin altitude exceeds approximately 13,500, and passengers were likely unconscious by that time if it was a slow decompression."
basically, the argument is that the SATCOM antenna adapter plate experienced corrosion and possible cracking, leading to an eventual decompression event, which while not catastrophic, nonetheless resulted in the loss of communication. the pilots turned back, unable to communicate with ATC, and either blacked out do to hypoxia or something else. pretty convincing IMO
http://www.lowyat.net/2014/03/was-th...-200-aircraft/
"There would have been an explosive loss of pressure at 35,000ft when the SATCOM antenna array disintegrated. The pilots, while disoriented would have done two things, try to take the plane down to below 30,000 feet and try to turn around to the nearest airport for an emergency landing. This is corroborated by the turnaround statement that was tracked by the Military Radar. This also explains why sites like FlightRadar24 and Flightaware lost the flight at the Igari checkpoint. ADS-B isn’t able to track aircraft flying below 30,000ft, but the plane still would have appeared on DCA and Military radar.
Now, the explosion would have taken out the entire SATCOM antenna array, so if the pilots did indeed try to send out a distress call over their normal communications channels, it would not have gone through. However they might not have been aware that their SATCOM antenna array is gone. There could have switched to other communication channels (VHF etc), but they might have been either disoriented, or they just felt that all communications were down. Its hard to speculate their condition and if they were able to get their oxygen masks on in time. Hypoxia (due to the lack of oxygen) can set in very fast, impair cognitive functioning of the brain and incapacitate a person in a short amount of time. Passenger oxygen masks on the 777 do not deploy until cabin altitude exceeds approximately 13,500, and passengers were likely unconscious by that time if it was a slow decompression."
basically, the argument is that the SATCOM antenna adapter plate experienced corrosion and possible cracking, leading to an eventual decompression event, which while not catastrophic, nonetheless resulted in the loss of communication. the pilots turned back, unable to communicate with ATC, and either blacked out do to hypoxia or something else. pretty convincing IMO
http://www.lowyat.net/2014/03/was-th...-200-aircraft/
Mar 11, 2014, 5:50 pm
#2368
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 28
If the plane is in one piece like that (or mostly one piece), does that give anyone a hint into what happened?
Mar 11, 2014, 5:50 pm
#2369
Join Date: May 2007
Location: variously: PVG, SFO, LHR
Programs: AA ExPlat, UA 1MM Gold, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Plat, IHG Plat, HH Gold
Posts: 1,678
Most relevant new story, which does NOT rely upon dodgy unnamed sources or reports from the now discredited local Malaysian rag, Berita Harian
http://online.wsj.com/news/article_e...MDEwMTExNDEyWj
*this source is by some of the best reporters on the crisis, which I trust more than second hand accounts in Reuters or CNN
A senior Malaysian air force official on Tuesday rejected local-media reports that military radar had picked up signals from the jet over the Strait of Malacca. The official said the plane dropped off radar midway between Vietnamese and Malaysian airspace as it was apparently turning back from its original course.
The official said that searches near the strait, which is much farther west, were mostly precautionary.
The official said that searches near the strait, which is much farther west, were mostly precautionary.
Mar 11, 2014, 5:51 pm
#2370
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: LHR- ish
Programs: MUCCI, BA Blue
Posts: 4,295
Thanks for the larger image Ikaz, it does look more plane like in that one. I still don't think it is one but certainly worth further investigation.
To me it looks like a small ship (left hand side) close alongside a larger vessel which is underway - the pointy white bit is its bow wave.
To me it looks like a small ship (left hand side) close alongside a larger vessel which is underway - the pointy white bit is its bow wave.