kamel123

From my perspective, it is extremely hard to predict what will be open and what will not be. At the moment, international mobility in the European Union is heavily restricted, and there is an increasingly byzantine set of rules around testing, quarantine etc. Hotels continue to be closed or are open only for "essential" travel in quite a few countries.

At the heart of the issue is that the European Union has been a clear laggard in the Covid vaccination drive compared to the US and the UK, and since procurement has been organized at an EU level, all member states are affected in a similar way. As a consequence, Covid mortality in the European Union has stabilized at a pretty elevated level, unlike the US and UK (see below from the FT). Some countries (e.g., Germany) are even entering stricter lockdown measures right now as ICU capacity is nearing full utilization. Several governments have made promises that everyone who wants to be vaccinated should have an opportunity before Summer, but extrapolating from current vaccination speed, this looks increasingly unlikely.

What this practically means for travel is unclear. In countries that heavily depend on tourism and the summer season (e.g., the Mediterranean countries listed by SanDiego), there will be strong pressure to open things up, independently of the Covid situation, but how things will ultimately play out is impossible to predict. For example, there was basically no ski season in Europe last winter, except in Switzerland. Travel privileges for vaccinated people are from my perspective likely to be put in place, but controversially discussed in some countries.

Personally, I have not booked anything at this stage. I am actually reasonably optimistic that some countries will be open, but will wait until the very last minute. Of course, it is always possible to book flexible tickets / cancellable rates, but I don't want to be bothered with the hassle of having to replan things multiple times / following up on refunds etc. If you want to book something right now, I agree with you the only relatively safe bet would be the UK.

Antonio8069

Out of curiousity, why post this query in "Luxury Hotels & Travel"?

callmedtop

Serious question - are people actually planning on cruising this summer? Even in the US where vaccination rates are quite high, I can't imagine there being enough demand to fill ships to any sort of profitable level at this point. Let alone Europe.

I was thinking about Greek islands in the back half of August for the exact reason to avoid the usual crowds (at least as much as possible), but if that's not going to happen, may be worth re-thinking.

jp-mco

I would imagine the OP has received good advice in the past from the wealth of knowledge and experience in this part of FT.

jp-mco

As bizarre as it sounds, and I wouldn't personally do it, but Disney Cruise Line is actually putting on cruises around the UK this summer during July, August and September. They've never done them before - and probably never will again - but they must feel that high vaccination rates (& uptake) and a low prevalence of the disease make it a good place to put on some cruises this summer given that they've had to cancel their European ones. They are open to UK residents only.

After the horror stories with cruises at the beginning of the pandemic it's going to be a long time before I would feel comfortable getting on a cruise ship.

Pausanias

Yes, people are booking cruises. I tend to only sail with Regent, Seabourn and Silversea and all those lines are making a big deal of their Greek trips. I also know that most of the so-called mass market lines like P&O and Princess are also cruising in Greece from July. At least, that's their plan right now. What they want most of all are deposits from people to help pay off their massive debts. Many people - mostly Americans judging by cruise forums - think that having been vaccinated is all that matters. But we know that's only half the story. Personally, I will not be booking any cruises this year.

RichardInSF

Not sure we are getting close to answering the OP's question, which is off-topic for this forum in any event. Will let it run a bit longer but am getting closer to thinking that this question is better moved to the dedicated Coronavirus forum where there are some true experts.

RichardInSF, moderator, luxury hotels and travel

747-800i

What? You are aware the South of France is one of the best places on Earth to be in the summer for people of all ages right? I am sure an 18 year old would HATE partying in St. Tropez for example .

michelin

I’m throwing the dice on a month in Ireland starting on August 5, with a combination of hotels and Airbnb’s. All can be canceled with full refunds at virtually the last minute. My sense is that we’ll have a pretty good sense of where things stand by late June. And I would be ok if we had to shift it to the UK.

So I guess my advice is plan for where your daughter really wants to go but make sure it’s all refundable. That also would allow for some last minute shuffling of destinations.

Valveking

Thanks for all of the input folks. I think we are going to go with 10 days in London and the English countryside. It just seems the safest bet.

KatW

I’ve booked a barge canal trip in the Loire and Burgundy in September, hoping for the best.

RichardInSF

Good luck to all whatever you choose. As the thread's goal has been reached, I'm now closing it.

RichardInSF, moderator, luxury hotels and travel

P.S. My personal travel decision regarding Europe is that I am sticking to the UK at least through the end of July.