Where are you going next?
Apr 4, 2020, 10:50 am
#4036
Suspended
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: En Route
Programs: Many
Posts: 6,798
Who is going to travel or even go out if there's a high risk of infection?
Economists say Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk. http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/po...vid-19-crisis/
Economists say Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk. http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/po...vid-19-crisis/
Last edited by GetSetJetSet; Apr 4, 2020 at 10:59 am
Apr 4, 2020, 3:15 pm
#4037
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: BOS
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Diamond
Posts: 2,028
That makes sense for now but what are we suppose to do, lock down forever? I am no economist, but if we don't get things rolling by the fall, this is going to make 1929 look like a spa. Hopefully we can find a reasonably effective treatment to bridge the gap until we have a vaccine. Beyond that, the mortality rate in Germany (1,330 deaths from 92,150 cases) is 0.014. Sure 1.4% isn't great, but I think we all assume that the true # of infected including mild and asymptomatic cases is a multiple of the confirmed # since in general the only people being tested are those who are seriously ill. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual CFR is closer to 0.5% or lower. Do we shut down the entire world economy for an illness that 99.5% of people recover from? Just for argument's sake. I go back and forth several times/day on my virus outlook as I'm sure most do.
Apr 4, 2020, 3:27 pm
#4038
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: UK
Posts: 1,644
I wrote a post about a month ago which got deleted by the moderators. Everything I said then is coming true. I made a correlation between the potential number of deaths, the effect on global demand, the plague proportions of human population and the solution to the environmental emergency. Even without an ELE*, carbon emissions have plummeted . . .
* Extinction Level Event
* Extinction Level Event
Last edited by Pausanias; Apr 4, 2020 at 11:51 pm
Apr 4, 2020, 6:19 pm
#4040
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: San Francisco, CA & Bangkok (Home)/Lawrenceville & Switzerland (Boarding School)/Baltimore, MD (College)
Programs: DL DM, AL MVPG 75K, SQ Gold, BA Silver, HH Diamond, Hyatt Globalist, Marriot Plat, Hertz Pres Circle
Posts: 599
Everything canceled until July
JULY
Four Seasons Maui
Ritz Carlton Budapest
Miami Beach Edition (Not sure if its appropriate for this forum)
AUGUST
Combination of Conrad and Waldorf Astoria Maldives (thought it was a good time to burn my boyfriends Hilton points)
Hotel Caesar Augustus Capri
Possibly Monaco/Antibes (Haven't chosen hotel yet)
SEPTEMBER
Le Meurice (tentatively)
Praying Capri goes through, it will be the first time I will have met my boyfriend in real life haha!
JULY
Four Seasons Maui
Ritz Carlton Budapest
Miami Beach Edition (Not sure if its appropriate for this forum)
AUGUST
Combination of Conrad and Waldorf Astoria Maldives (thought it was a good time to burn my boyfriends Hilton points)
Hotel Caesar Augustus Capri
Possibly Monaco/Antibes (Haven't chosen hotel yet)
SEPTEMBER
Le Meurice (tentatively)
Praying Capri goes through, it will be the first time I will have met my boyfriend in real life haha!
Apr 4, 2020, 9:29 pm
#4042
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: UK
Posts: 1,644
Perhaps we need a new thread - Where Were You Going Next?
Oh, this made me chuckle -
With restricted air travel, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, the Pope and Greta Thunberg must share the one plane, flying from London to Zurich for an emergency global coronavirus meeting. Suddenly, all the engines cut out, and it is obvious they will soon crash. But there are only four parachutes!
“I’m the smartest man in the USA,” Trump says, “and I’m needed to make America great again.” He takes one parachute and jumps.
“I’m needed to sort out Britain,” says Boris Johnson. He takes one and jumps.
“I need one as the world needs the Catholic church,” the Pope says. He takes one and jumps.
Angela Merkel turns to Greta Thunberg: “You can have the last parachute. I’ve lived my life. Yours is just starting, and we need you to lead the world on climate change action.”
“Don’t worry Chancellor,” replies Greta, “there are two parachutes left. The smartest man in the USA just jumped out with my school satchel.”
Oh, this made me chuckle -
With restricted air travel, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, the Pope and Greta Thunberg must share the one plane, flying from London to Zurich for an emergency global coronavirus meeting. Suddenly, all the engines cut out, and it is obvious they will soon crash. But there are only four parachutes!
“I’m the smartest man in the USA,” Trump says, “and I’m needed to make America great again.” He takes one parachute and jumps.
“I’m needed to sort out Britain,” says Boris Johnson. He takes one and jumps.
“I need one as the world needs the Catholic church,” the Pope says. He takes one and jumps.
Angela Merkel turns to Greta Thunberg: “You can have the last parachute. I’ve lived my life. Yours is just starting, and we need you to lead the world on climate change action.”
“Don’t worry Chancellor,” replies Greta, “there are two parachutes left. The smartest man in the USA just jumped out with my school satchel.”
Last edited by Pausanias; Apr 5, 2020 at 1:12 am
Apr 5, 2020, 3:20 am
#4043
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: London, Paris
Programs: LH HON, AF Platinum
Posts: 2,001
I am no economist, but if we don't get things rolling by the fall, this is going to make 1929 look like a spa.
1) Reduction in lockdown restrictions--Depends on region/country, but for most EU countries likely around May. For the US, will be city to city, state to state because response to the virus hasn't been universal, and many states are still pretty lax about locking things down.
2) Restoration of travel freedoms--There will be (and is) immense pressure to restore/ramp back up travel between major economic hubs, like NYC, London, Singapore, HK, Tokyo, SF, Paris, you get the picture. Global business interconnectivity is the lifeline of international business, and these business hubs will likely be the first to get their acts together (compared to the countries/cities in the next point).
3) Restoration of travel freedoms to emerging markets/tourist destinations--This is not nearly as high priority. Most of these destinations will be ravaged by the virus, and poor response likely means that even if you can travel to these locations, you will likely be placed into quarantine when arriving from them. The response to this virus from the likes of India, Brazil, Nigeria, etc. has been atrocious and will set back each countries' recovery by at least a few months starting from the day they actually get serious about this.
Analyzing your list, I am going to try to peg the probability of each trip happening.
June
Alvear Palace, Buenos Aires - 10%
Four Seasons, Bogota - 10%
Hotel Kamp, Helsinki - 40%
July
Carlton, Cannes - 80%
Le Byblos, St. Tropez - 80% (FWIW, I'm hoping to spend May and June in southern France, but it's an easier hop for me from London/Paris and I can fly private if need be; I'm also booked at the Cheval Blanc Paris in late May)
Aug
Le Saint Paul, Saint Paul de Vence - 80%
Royal Hotel, San Remo - 80%
Cervo Hotel, Porto Cervo - 80%
Lesante Blu, Zakynthos - 80%
TBD, Kalymnos - 80%
TBD, Kos - 80%
TBD, Rhodes - 80%
TBD, Karpathos - 80%
Sept.
TBD, Seattle - 80%
TBD, Eugene - 70%
TBD, Los Angeles - 80%
Ett Hem, Stockholm - 70%
Le Meridien, Munich (not luxury but it's Oktoberfest so whatever!) - 85%
Oct.
RC, New Orleans - 60%
Nov.
Hilton, Columbus (not luxury) - 60%
Dec.
Marriott, Georgetown (Guyana) [only game in town?] - 40%
Courtyard Marriott, Paramaribo (again, only game in town?) - 40%
101 Hotel, Reykjavik - 80%
Hotel Imperial, Vienna - 80%
Four Seasons, Prague - 80%
Palacio Tangara, Sao Paulo - 50%
TBD Brazil end of Dec 29-END.- 50%
Apr 5, 2020, 8:00 am
#4044
Moderator: Luxury Hotels and FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Palo Alto, California,USA
Posts: 17,854
This thread is heading into politics which is the domain of OMNI. Let's keep it on-topic. I will delete further off-topic discussion.
RichardInSF, moderator, luxury hotels and travel
RichardInSF, moderator, luxury hotels and travel
Apr 5, 2020, 9:42 am
#4045
Join Date: Feb 2018
Programs: Bonvoy :Ambassador , ALL :Diamond, Skywards :Silver, Krisflyer :Silver
Posts: 2,808
April
Amanjiwo - cancelled
Bali - cancelled
Local grocery store - as planned
May
Stay at home - as planned
June
Australia - cancelled
July
Bali - hopefully can go ahead although I doubt it very much
August
Singapore - doubt
September
No plan yet maybe somewhere close
October
Similar to September
November
Singapore - maybe go ahead depending on situation
December
UAE - for expo and maybe go somewhere after UAE - will not go ahead if the expo is rescheduled
Maybe go Japan instead if possible
Amanjiwo - cancelled
Bali - cancelled
Local grocery store - as planned
May
Stay at home - as planned
June
Australia - cancelled
July
Bali - hopefully can go ahead although I doubt it very much
August
Singapore - doubt
September
No plan yet maybe somewhere close
October
Similar to September
November
Singapore - maybe go ahead depending on situation
December
UAE - for expo and maybe go somewhere after UAE - will not go ahead if the expo is rescheduled
Maybe go Japan instead if possible
Apr 6, 2020, 2:35 pm
#4046
Suspended
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: En Route
Programs: Many
Posts: 6,798
It depends on what you mean by "get things rolling":
1) Reduction in lockdown restrictions--Depends on region/country, but for most EU countries likely around May. For the US, will be city to city, state to state because response to the virus hasn't been universal, and many states are still pretty lax about locking things down.
2) Restoration of travel freedoms--There will be (and is) immense pressure to restore/ramp back up travel between major economic hubs, like NYC, London, Singapore, HK, Tokyo, SF, Paris, you get the picture. Global business interconnectivity is the lifeline of international business, and these business hubs will likely be the first to get their acts together (compared to the countries/cities in the next point).
3) Restoration of travel freedoms to emerging markets/tourist destinations--This is not nearly as high priority. Most of these destinations will be ravaged by the virus, and poor response likely means that even if you can travel to these locations, you will likely be placed into quarantine when arriving from them. The response to this virus from the likes of India, Brazil, Nigeria, etc. has been atrocious and will set back each countries' recovery by at least a few months starting from the day they actually get serious about this.
Analyzing your list, I am going to try to peg the probability of each trip happening.
June
Alvear Palace, Buenos Aires - 10%
Four Seasons, Bogota - 10%
Hotel Kamp, Helsinki - 40%
July
Carlton, Cannes - 80%
Le Byblos, St. Tropez - 80% (FWIW, I'm hoping to spend May and June in southern France, but it's an easier hop for me from London/Paris and I can fly private if need be; I'm also booked at the Cheval Blanc Paris in late May)
Aug
Le Saint Paul, Saint Paul de Vence - 80%
Royal Hotel, San Remo - 80%
Cervo Hotel, Porto Cervo - 80%
Lesante Blu, Zakynthos - 80%
TBD, Kalymnos - 80%
TBD, Kos - 80%
TBD, Rhodes - 80%
TBD, Karpathos - 80%
Sept.
TBD, Seattle - 80%
TBD, Eugene - 70%
TBD, Los Angeles - 80%
Ett Hem, Stockholm - 70%
Le Meridien, Munich (not luxury but it's Oktoberfest so whatever!) - 85%
Oct.
RC, New Orleans - 60%
Nov.
Hilton, Columbus (not luxury) - 60%
Dec.
Marriott, Georgetown (Guyana) [only game in town?] - 40%
Courtyard Marriott, Paramaribo (again, only game in town?) - 40%
101 Hotel, Reykjavik - 80%
Hotel Imperial, Vienna - 80%
Four Seasons, Prague - 80%
Palacio Tangara, Sao Paulo - 50%
TBD Brazil end of Dec 29-END.- 50%
1) Reduction in lockdown restrictions--Depends on region/country, but for most EU countries likely around May. For the US, will be city to city, state to state because response to the virus hasn't been universal, and many states are still pretty lax about locking things down.
2) Restoration of travel freedoms--There will be (and is) immense pressure to restore/ramp back up travel between major economic hubs, like NYC, London, Singapore, HK, Tokyo, SF, Paris, you get the picture. Global business interconnectivity is the lifeline of international business, and these business hubs will likely be the first to get their acts together (compared to the countries/cities in the next point).
3) Restoration of travel freedoms to emerging markets/tourist destinations--This is not nearly as high priority. Most of these destinations will be ravaged by the virus, and poor response likely means that even if you can travel to these locations, you will likely be placed into quarantine when arriving from them. The response to this virus from the likes of India, Brazil, Nigeria, etc. has been atrocious and will set back each countries' recovery by at least a few months starting from the day they actually get serious about this.
Analyzing your list, I am going to try to peg the probability of each trip happening.
June
Alvear Palace, Buenos Aires - 10%
Four Seasons, Bogota - 10%
Hotel Kamp, Helsinki - 40%
July
Carlton, Cannes - 80%
Le Byblos, St. Tropez - 80% (FWIW, I'm hoping to spend May and June in southern France, but it's an easier hop for me from London/Paris and I can fly private if need be; I'm also booked at the Cheval Blanc Paris in late May)
Aug
Le Saint Paul, Saint Paul de Vence - 80%
Royal Hotel, San Remo - 80%
Cervo Hotel, Porto Cervo - 80%
Lesante Blu, Zakynthos - 80%
TBD, Kalymnos - 80%
TBD, Kos - 80%
TBD, Rhodes - 80%
TBD, Karpathos - 80%
Sept.
TBD, Seattle - 80%
TBD, Eugene - 70%
TBD, Los Angeles - 80%
Ett Hem, Stockholm - 70%
Le Meridien, Munich (not luxury but it's Oktoberfest so whatever!) - 85%
Oct.
RC, New Orleans - 60%
Nov.
Hilton, Columbus (not luxury) - 60%
Dec.
Marriott, Georgetown (Guyana) [only game in town?] - 40%
Courtyard Marriott, Paramaribo (again, only game in town?) - 40%
101 Hotel, Reykjavik - 80%
Hotel Imperial, Vienna - 80%
Four Seasons, Prague - 80%
Palacio Tangara, Sao Paulo - 50%
TBD Brazil end of Dec 29-END.- 50%
they're pretty close. All of Europe will be an easy hop for me as well if I can get back to my apt in Paris which I was hoping to do in May. My flight to EZE/BOG is ex-CDG. So if I can't get to Paris in May or at least very early June then the rest of the June stops fall by the wayside.
Apr 6, 2020, 3:54 pm
#4047
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: London, Paris
Programs: LH HON, AF Platinum
Posts: 2,001
They’re close but in different states. It’s already the case that some states are restricting travel from others, and it’s probably the case that as each state’s response to the virus evolves, so will each state’s relationship to the other.
Apr 7, 2020, 8:31 am
#4050
Community Director Emerita
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Anywhere warm
Posts: 33,745
I have one trip organized months ago that might happen but that's it. And I'm not working on any. Usually, I am working 12 months out on a number of trips. But now, I have no sense of when we will be able to leave home and where we will be able to go. I have no idea what routes airlines will fly nor what hotels will reopen. I don't know when I'll feel secure enough healthwise to reenter the great outside. I'm in a kind of paralysis in regards to travel.