NYC1

Yes, but I am talking capacity and availability. If they go down to 4 seats from 8, and they’re sold out, it doesn’t do me much good...and I don’t see them increasing the price notwithstanding the laws of supply and demand (and they’re competing with SQ on the route to JFK).

vantage03

Remember SQ will drop from 12-seat to 6-seat F in a couple of years. Hard-product LH will never be able to compete, but the ground services make LH compelling on this route both for transfer and O and D pax in F.

sophialite

I’m not sure I buy into SQ being credible competition. Yes it’s a superior F product, but ground service stinks at both ends, including the fact that you can’t use the FCL. I also don’t know if it’s well advertised that you can fly SQ from FRA-JFK.

Also a few weeks ago when I had to rush to NYC from Singapore (emergency), I tried my hardest to get on SIN-EWR. For business travelers or people who actually need to be somewhere, I found SIN-EWR to be far superior to SIN-FRA-JFK, even if I couldn’t fly first on that route.

I’ll give that FRA-SIN is where the competition will sit.

thbe

I didn't mean that they increase the prices for full flex F. There were a lot of sales for LH First in the last months, which fill their cabins. Long haul in F full flex for USD 10k, discounted for USD 5k and sales promotion for USD 2.5k. They could stop that kind of sales promotions easily.

R.O.

I don't think sales will stop.

Demand for F has fallen for numerous reasons. There has been ample discussion of it elsewhere on FT.

Going forward, the demand for F will still fluctuate (due to stochastic trends, seasonal factors, noise). Smaller F cabins don't change that.

Sales will continue to be an important tool in the toolbox of revenue managers.

In fact, I believe Y and F see more peaks and troughs in demand than Y+ and J. The reason being that the latter two see the highest fraction of business travellers whose demand tends to be more stable over time that than of leisure travellers.

This makes capacity/revenue management trickier in Y and F. Ofc, a further complication with F is that sales may potentially have product cannibalization effects or may damage the reputation of the product. I guess that's one reason why airlines like other tools to fill an F such as awards and cash upgrades.

Nevertheless, once again, there will still be the need for sales to help smoothen out loads.

One could actually argue it will be trickier to manage F utilization when the cabin is smaller. (I'm thinking about the properties of estimators but don't want to get into a discussion of statistics here.)

sophialite

I don't frequently see discounted F for $5k unless I do hidden cities. LHR-SFO via FRA in March in "discounted" F is GBP 5425 from what I can tell (and, that's only some days; other days it's GBP 8650). Direct from FRA it's GBP 5k. Originating from BCN drops it to GBP 3.8k, which just about gets you about USD 30 under USD 5,000.

SleepOverGreenland

Probably a full fare F and last-minute-upgrade-on-WL only cabin.

sophialite

You think on the former? I scored AF La Premiere, in the four-seat cabin, on a discounted F fare... And there appear to be some similarly competitive offers to the US next year.

NYC1

Fair points. I agree that the ground service both at JFK and obviously at FRA are way better with LH F than SQ F, but if I don’t have or want to (and I don’t want to) spend hours at each airport beyond what’s necessary and if I’m not connecting at FRA, then I don’t really care too much about ground service.

You’re probably right about the route not being well advertised.

I agree with your preference of SIN-EWR as opposed to connecting via FRA. But not relevant to me going to FRA.

In any case, for me, SQ is competition to LH on this route so we’ll have to see how this plays. I think it’s years away from today anyway.

NYC1

From NY, I never see these discounted prices when I actually have to fly.

Perfect example: there’s another thread here about some supposed promotion for companions in F out of the US to a bunch of destinations. Impossible to find any availability. Well done!

sophialite

there are some here who would spend days at the FCT/FCL if they could.

chris63

& didn’t you suggest hanging around outside the FCT to facilitate that for 150 EUR ?

sophialite

Only if it was serendipitous (i.e., I was checking in and someone just so happened to be struggling to get in).

if an idiot forces me to take their money, I’ll take it :-D

worldclubber

Not likely, as the facilities close at night.

LondonElite

I would find it very odd if this rumour is any more than that, given recent statements made by LH and Spohr. F on three routes makes no sense at all given the high fixed costs of offering F service.