FD1971

Honestly, as pointed out before, really nothing special to write home about highlighted by the highly accurate statement that LH could never be run a foreigner.

Well, he is ten years late to the party...

I am still amazed by the Eastern European footprint. No offense against anyone, but again, aside from Poland, I do not see the strategic relevance. Better than nothing, better than the Baltic countries in terms of traffic, but where is the advantage worth mentioning?

Even if AF/KL could match Lufthansa in terms of traffic, it is still the same competitive approach, a one stop connection through a hub to the world. Fares are low and except for some regulated markets, the routes are 500-1000 miles longer further reducing your rpm. Russia and some former provinces are certainly a bit more interesting, but often not Eastern Europe anymore.

FD1971

In terms of revenue per mile, those routes are great, but the operating costs down there are sky-high. Aside from corruption and high handling costs, you are subject to currency fluctuations, very often limits to getting money out of the country, if needed, aside from running a complete sales organisation for one daily flight. And the unions are always happy to have their folks in certain parts of Africa. Not to mention a faked credit card or bill every once in a while.

But years ago, Nigeria was highly regulated, so more or less eyeryone was allowed one daily flight (IIRC, with massive seat limitations) so there was no need at all to discount a single seat. More or less optimal stage length for a long haul plane as well. Lots of diplomats and diplomatic cargo on the flights, so still worth all the hassle.

N1003U

These discussions are somehow addictive, aren't they...

Lack

Edit, got an ever more appropriate one:

weero

Thanks for the interview LonLH.

So there exist actual aviation experts who believe or claim that EK at al are just ephemeral phenomena? So what is the conclusion? That they can be ignored?

TRAVELSIG

Indeed.

TRAVELSIG

Once I get one of those perhaps I will think it is completely fair for changes to a ticket to cost more than the ticket itself

SMK77

...and still can't use it to their own advantage?

TRAVELSIG

Good point- a "killer position" in the market would tend to suggest profit margins at least in the double digits?

N1003U

I just looked a random 4-day return FRA/JFK in late Feb on lh.com:

Non-flexible/non-refundable: 1912€ (books into P)
Business "Flex" : 4089€ (books into D);
Fully Flexible: 11173€ (books into J).

Thinking about the implications of the J9 D0 C0 scam: It is generally possible to buy a walk-up business fares 90 minutes before departure that are MUCH less than a 7084€ price difference.

And given the risk of being shafted in such a way, why would I not simply book the P-fare and take my chances? What does the D-fare get me (besides some miles that I don't need anyway)?

This is also a good demonstration of why a good TA is important. Sometimes doing it yourself is not so cost effective...or is it a demonstration of how silly retail air ticket offers/retail websites can be?

TRAVELSIG

And thus starts the new generation of "option based" pricing with airlines.

I know one frequent flyer who is almost always on the same routes.

When tickets go on sale at low prices his office books several different dates.

When the tickets are used- OK. When not they either change them or let the "options" expire.

They say this is much less expensive than buying flexible tickets.

They do have enough people traveling on a regular basis on the same routes to make it worthwhile to have one person in their offices and one at their travel agency trained in how to do this.

The fact this even makes sense is a sign that the airline approach to pricing is really not working for anyone any longer.

In fact- if I look at my BA tickets (NOTE I no longer show comparisons to the GCC as every time I do I just get replies back that "they will go out of business", "they are cheating", "some sheik is paying for your ticket", etc etc)- I can change almost all of them for a fee of GBP 45 (short haul) to maximum GBP 200 (long haul very restricted). This fee I consider to be OK and will pay it. This is a long way off from 1250 EUR to change a ticket.

FD1971

I suggest looking at the oper. cash flows. Might give you a better picture of the performance of a company.

TRAVELSIG

For valuation FCF is one good tool. Performance I am not sure it is that indicative other than as one K pi?

Back on topic- does SEN status really give anything worthwhile any longer? For a regular business class customer?

And HON apart from the lounge?

SMK77

Some good background information for today's Armchair CEOs:

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...king-it-147262

Also helps to better understand some of the silly remarks by one soon-to-be-gone CEO of a large European legacy carrier...

FD1971

Breaking News:

EK unit costs are lower in comparison to major competitors...

In other Breaking News:

EK unit revenues are lower in comparison to major competitors...

Also:

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