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Vegas Recovery - Future

Vegas Recovery - Future

Old Feb 18, 2021, 10:45 pm
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Vegas Recovery - Future

There was a good discussion brewing about Vegas recovery in the, "What's Vegas like during Covid" thread but that is off-topic. So, how about continuing that with some speculation and opinion?

I have been visiting Vegas 2-3X a year for the last 15 years or so and know the scene pretty well. I'm usually there once a year for a work convention and then make it back a time or two for fun. There was a lot of debate in the other thread about recovery and I think it's important to differentiate convention folks vs. recreational travelers. If the question is just about raw dollars I suppose they could be lumped together but I believe it's a two-fold approach - when will recreational travelers return? When will conventions return? I think the vacationers will return much sooner. It's a $500 gamble (no pun intended) for a couple to jump a plane and get a room at Bally's. A convention starts at what, 100K, 200k, 500K? I honestly have no idea but I'm sure it's more of a risk than some newlyweds hopping a flight from LA. Then factor in the liability of the convention or the cost if Covid makes a surge and they have to cancel. I just think conventions are going to take A LOT longer to return.

I think it's also important to profile your average convention attendee vs. the recreational traveler for clarification of what numbers we're talking about. Sure, both stay in a hotel but that's where the similarity ends. From my experience (and this well may be limited by my industry) a lot of the convention folks do a lot of walking around looking... NOT gambling/spending. Recreational folks are the ones throwing chips at tables and pulling handles on slot machines (or pushing buttons, anyway).

I guess my point is, what "recovery" are we talking about? I have no basis for my opinions other than just a guy wandering around (usually drunk to be fair) so take it for what it's worth. I love Vegas in limited doses and look forward to going back soon. I was there a couple months ago and it was surprisingly "normal" despite pandemic. But, of course, that's off-topic for this thread Would love to hear your predications and opinions....
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 7:56 am
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Optimistic

I too have been making a couple of trips a year to Vegas for the past 20 years. one of the trips in the fall to the SEMA / AAPEX Trade shows. Like everyone else. canceled trips last year. had 7 of us Booked for the trade show. Being Optimistic... I've rebooked Flights and Rooms (for the 7of us) for this fall, Hoping the tradeshow will be Live! Yeah it has to be a BIG gamble $$$ to plan a major trade event, but they do it to make money. and the Convention Venues are needing to get cash flowing again. So I'm thinking that Conventions will be back as soon as they are allowed . But who really knows with this Virus! Trade show or not, if my 3 employees and their wives still want to make the trip and deem it safe to do so... were coming to Vegas! I'm sure we can find something to do RT
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 9:09 am
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Personally, I can't wait to go back. I'm usually there once or twice a year and hope to be able to go back this fall if I can get a vaccine by then. So, I think the leisure travel will pick up fairly quickly once people get vaccinated and the infection/death rates start to go down. But, I'm doubtful about conventions. Can you imagine the bad press of an outbreak at a specific company's meeting?
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 9:13 am
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Originally Posted by Low Roller
Personally, I can't wait to go back. I'm usually there once or twice a year and hope to be able to go back this fall if I can get a vaccine by then. So, I think the leisure travel will pick up fairly quickly once people get vaccinated and the infection/death rates start to go down. But, I'm doubtful about conventions. Can you imagine the bad press of an outbreak at a specific company's meeting?
Perhaps. Look, CV-19 isn't going away. Some folks are not going to do well with it one way or another. People can decide whether they think it is a risk but folks still will get together whether for leisure or corporate travel.

Going forward, CV-19 is the norm.

David
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 9:28 am
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Originally Posted by DELee
Perhaps. Look, CV-19 isn't going away...Going forward, CV-19 is the norm.
I don't think we know that yet. It depends on how long vaccine immunity lasts. If it only offers short-term immunity, then this will basically be like the flu and older folks will get vaccinated every year. If it offers long-term immunity, then this could be a once-in-a lifetime shot and Covid will eventually die out. Either way, I think life will be getting back to some form of normal by the end of this year. Vegas will be back, although the buffets might not be starting up for awhile.
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 9:39 am
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Originally Posted by Low Roller
I don't think we know that yet. It depends on how long vaccine immunity lasts. If it only offers short-term immunity, then this will basically be like the flu and older folks will get vaccinated every year. If it offers long-term immunity, then this could be a once-in-a lifetime shot and Covid will eventually die out. Either way, I think life will be getting back to some form of normal by the end of this year. Vegas will be back, although the buffets might not be starting up for awhile.
My point is that CV-19 and its mutations will continue on - as well as other virii strains that will impact different populations - because of the availability of hosts, whether human or other mammals.

Vegas and the rest of the world to continue to have exposures and cases, vaccine or not.

Some societies and countries will continue to use it as an excuse. It is what it is and this is the new norm - Vegas should plan and respond and execute accordingly.

David
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 9:40 am
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Soon after after 9/11 I was able to fly RT from OMA for $120, pre-pandemic it was pushing $400. In 2007 I signed a purchase agreement to buy a condo on the Strip, then I stressed through the financial crisis of 2008-9 hoping that MGM would get their financing and finish my project. My condo has steadily increased in value. 2017 brought the horrible mass shooting. m My point is that VEGAS ALWAYS COMES BACK! Compared to many other US travel vacay places , it is and will still be reasonably priced to spend some time unless you gamble/lose too much. I agree, mtofell, that the leisure travelers will be back sooner than conventioneers. We're all itching to get out of our homes. Travel abroad might remain rather sketchy until things really calm down; Why not experience the World in fabulous Las Vegas with the Eiffel Tower, a pyramid, Rio de Janeiro with World-class dining, entertainment, and shopping?! I predict the next surge that we'll hear about is the McCarran/Reid airport blasting past the old 40M+ annual passenger count. I firmly believe that the comeback is stronger than the setback. The Golden Knights, NASCAR and the beautiful Raiders stadium, it's a dry heat - maybe the escalators will consistently work this time?! Fear not, it's Vegas, baby, Vegas!

Last edited by JB OmahAA; Feb 25, 2021 at 11:37 am
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 4:33 pm
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Originally Posted by JB OmahAA
Soon after after 9/11 I was able to fly RT from OMA for $120, pre-pandemic it was pushing $400. In 2007 I signed a purchase agreement to buy a condo on the Strip, then I stressed through the financial crisis of 2008-9 hoping that MGM would get their financing and finish my project. My condo has steadily increased in value. 2017 brought the horrible mass shooting. m My point is that VEGAS ALWAYS COMES BACK! Compared to many other US travel vacay places , it is and will still be reasonably priced to spend some time unless you gamble/lose too much. I agree, mtofell, that the leisure travelers will be back sooner than conventioneers. We're all itching to get out of our homes. Travel abroad might remain rather sketchy until things really calm down; Why not experience the World in fabulous Las Vegas with the Eiffel Tower, a pyramid, Rio de Janeiro with World-class dining, entertainment, and shopping?! I predict the next surge that we'll hear about is the McCarran/Reid airport blasting past the old 40M+ annual passenger count. I firmly believe that the comeback is stronger than the setback. The Golden Knights, NASCAR and the beautiful Raiders stadium, it's a dry heat - maybe the escalators will consistently work this time?! Fear not, it's Vegas, baby Vegas!
Yay optimism!

I'm not as all-in as the OP is - 9/11 was 20 years ago; the 2017 shooting was a pinpoint event - but yes, Vegas will be back. Probably not fully back until 2022 at the very earliest, IMO.

Most certainly there will be a pent-up orgy of travel when COVID is declared "over."
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 5:46 pm
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Here's something I posted in the, "What's Vegas Like During Coronavirus" thread in response to some folks saying Vegas was done for good:

"Vegas will never be back?" - Bahhh..... As long as there are bachelor parties, girl's weekends, guys looking for extra-marital sex, sports betting, conventions, tourists from US and overseas, and good old American gluttony, Vegas will ALWAYS survive in some fashion.

Sure, it may be toned down for a few years like it has been many times before but booz, sex and lights always wins out in the end. At least history says so.
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 5:57 pm
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Not sure if I agree with the assessment leisure spends more than convention. Many convention goers are traveling on business. That means upscale hotels, expensive team/group dinners, taxis everywhere, club/bar/restaurant buyouts, etc. Plus, when all other expenses are covered, its easier to justify burning cash on gambling (and said gambling happens at night, when minimums are higher).

Ive been to Vegas many times both leisure and business and my business spend is ALWAYS more, often a lot more.
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Old Feb 21, 2021, 8:21 pm
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IMO a big factor for Vegas as travel starts up again will be how many Americans who can't travel to international destinations, or who won't travel to other domestic destinations because those places are still in lockdown, decide to go to Vegas instead. I do think Vegas will be one of the top picks for that type of traveler.

Originally Posted by _fx
Not sure if I agree with the assessment leisure spends more than convention.
Well, the average convention attendee surely spends more than the average leisure visitor, but this should be no surprise as those are hugely different demographics. It changes when comparing, say, the average convention attendee with a leisure visitor from the same income group or with a similar disposable income.
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Old Feb 21, 2021, 10:11 pm
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Originally Posted by gengar
IMO a big factor for Vegas as travel starts up again will be how many Americans who can't travel to international destinations, or who won't travel to other domestic destinations because those places are still in lockdown, decide to go to Vegas instead. I do think Vegas will be one of the top picks for that type of traveler.
I second this. This is actually why I went to Vegas last August - my original destination was quarantined. I was there for a week (Friday - Friday), and the weekend was fairly crowded. Even the rest of the week had a decent number of people, although not as many as normal.
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Old Feb 24, 2021, 8:22 am
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Originally Posted by _fx
Not sure if I agree with the assessment leisure spends more than convention. Many convention goers are traveling on business. That means upscale hotels, expensive team/group dinners, taxis everywhere, club/bar/restaurant buyouts, etc. Plus, when all other expenses are covered, its easier to justify burning cash on gambling (and said gambling happens at night, when minimums are higher).

Ive been to Vegas many times both leisure and business and my business spend is ALWAYS more, often a lot more.
Yeah, I suppose my industry might have something to do with it. Building inspectors aren't really known for being the, "party all night" type I guess I'm just the exception... at least while I'm in Vegas anyway.
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Old Feb 24, 2021, 8:26 am
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I think once more people are vaccinated and feel more comfortable traveling, as eagar as soo many people are to travel, a lot will likely stick to a domestic destination for their first one or two trips (human nature). And I think that will help kick-start places like Vegas and perhaps even NYC.
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Old Feb 25, 2021, 11:15 am
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I see where the Electric Daisy Carnival EDC is still scheduled for May 21-23 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. in 2019 it drew something North of 400,000 attendees. and their website says 2021 sold out. Doesn't say how many tickets were sold? of if folks who held 2020 tickets that were canceled still hold those tickets. Less than 90 days out, it will be one to watch to see if stuff starts returning to vegas. RT
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Last edited by roadtriper; Feb 25, 2021 at 4:26 pm
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