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My craps system (It works. I win using this)

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Old Nov 13, 13, 3:22 am
  #46
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Originally Posted by kettle1 View Post
....this does not work over the long haul.
Ok, so what's the "long haul" if I only play a few times a year? Two sessions at the table? Ten? A hundred?
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Old Nov 13, 13, 1:03 pm
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Originally Posted by RichardInSF View Post
Some of the best minds in gambling equipment manufacturing have toiled many long hours to produce dice that are effectively cubic and of constant density. This is to ensure that a craps game is what mathematicians call an "independent trials process," provided the dice are rotated out before becoming worn. In other words, the dice have no memory.

A mathematician named Feller in his oldish, yet excellent, undergraduate textbook on Discrete Probability proves a theorem that says in effect, "For any game that is an independent trials process, over the long term, no betting system will give a return that is different than betting at random." That's a theorem, it''s not a conjecture or a guess or a hypothesis. That theorem has been proven. That means that if the normal assumptions of mathematics apply. there is no universe in which that theorem is false. Not any. Nada. None.

So, OP, go ahead and play your system. Over time, you won't do any better or worse than following any other method, but at least you will feel better about yourself.
I see what your saying, but the part I bolded above needs a caveat in order to apply it to craps, since there are various different bets on the craps table, each with its own set of odds and its own house advantage.

Over the same number of trials, I would guess that you'd lose less by just betting the pass line every single time than if you're randomly spreading money out across snake eyes and the hardways.

Originally Posted by mileage junkie View Post
Ok, so what's the "long haul" if I only play a few times a year? Two sessions at the table? Ten? A hundred?
There's no discrete limit. The longer you play, and the more times the dice are rolled, the closer the actual outcomes will get to their theoretical probabilities, both in terms of what number the dice land on, and in you losing money at the exact rate of the house advantage for the bets you are placing.
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Old Nov 26, 13, 5:17 pm
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I'll bite...

Isn't the Pass line with at least double odds in the players favor? Granted you'll have to roll millions of times, but in the long run shouldn't you be up? (Assuming you ignore all other bets)
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Old Nov 26, 13, 6:23 pm
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Originally Posted by LV702 View Post
I'll bite...

Isn't the Pass line with at least double odds in the players favor? Granted you'll have to roll millions of times, but in the long run shouldn't you be up? (Assuming you ignore all other bets)
Incorrect.

Pass Line Bet:
House Edge
Bet made 1.41%
Bet resolved 1.41%
Roll 0.42%

I believe every bet in a casino the house has the edge, if not they would not be in business. Craps (certain bets can be better than other games and the Pass Line is one of the better bets), but the house still has the odds in their favor.

One thing the player has is the "comps" casinos give out. Free drinks, rooms, shows, meals, tournaments, etc. Overall these cost the casino little, but can be very valuable to the player.

The majority of players leave a casino with less money in their pocket than when they came in. Card counters can have an advantage in Blackjack, but once discovered they will be removed from the casino and banned, not just from that casino but ALL casinos owned by parent company. Get banned from Caesars, you would be banned from dozens of casinos all over the USA. MGM same thing. Boyd Group same. And many of these companies, although they are competitors, work together to ban card counting.
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Old Nov 26, 13, 6:48 pm
  #50
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Originally Posted by kettle1 View Post
I believe every bet in a casino the house has the edge, if not they would not be in business. Craps (certain bets can be better than other games and the Pass Line is one of the better bets), but the house still has the odds in their favor.
That's not true, there is one bet in the casino that has no house advantage, and it's in craps. It's called "Taking the odds". You can read about it here (scroll down to "The Free Odds Bet"). Most players just don't know about it and don't take advantage of it.
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Old Nov 26, 13, 6:53 pm
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Originally Posted by RevJim View Post
That's not true, there is one bet in the casino that has no house advantage, and it's in craps. It's called "Taking the odds". You can read about it here (scroll down to "The Free Odds Bet"). Most players just don't know about it and don't take advantage of it.
To be more precise, the house advantage is built in. The issue that people generally bring up is that most players already take the built-in bet (pass line) but don't take the maximum possible odds bet, therefore voluntarily giving the house a higher advantage.

Of course, putting down any money at any of these games is already voluntarily giving the house a higher advantage.
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Old Nov 26, 13, 7:00 pm
  #52
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Originally Posted by gengar View Post
To be more precise, the house advantage is built in. The issue that people generally bring up is that most players already take the built-in bet (pass line) but don't take the maximum possible odds bet, therefore voluntarily giving the house a higher advantage.
It's free in the sense that once you've made your pass line bet, the add-on odds bet is free. But yes, since you are required to make a pass line bet to take the odds, the house advantage is built in.

If I understand the math correctly, you can whittle down the house advantage to 0.014% by betting on Don't Pass and then following up by taking the odds. Great idea for anyone who is playing for casino perks, "free" drinks or player elite status.
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Old Nov 26, 13, 7:54 pm
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Originally Posted by RevJim View Post
It's free in the sense that once you've made your pass line bet, the add-on odds bet is free. But yes, since you are required to make a pass line bet to take the odds, the house advantage is built in.

If I understand the math correctly, you can whittle down the house advantage to 0.014% by betting on Don't Pass and then following up by taking the odds. Great idea for anyone who is playing for casino perks, "free" drinks or player elite status.
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Old Nov 26, 13, 8:37 pm
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Originally Posted by RevJim View Post
It's free in the sense that once you've made your pass line bet, the add-on odds bet is free. But yes, since you are required to make a pass line bet to take the odds, the house advantage is built in.

If I understand the math correctly, you can whittle down the house advantage to 0.014% by betting on Don't Pass and then following up by taking the odds. Great idea for anyone who is playing for casino perks, "free" drinks or player elite status.
Unfortunately, most casinos don't take into account the even money odds bet into comps calculations. For good reason.
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Old Nov 26, 13, 9:06 pm
  #55
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Originally Posted by kettle1 View Post
Incorrect.

Pass Line Bet:
House Edge
Bet made 1.41%
Bet resolved 1.41%
Roll 0.42%

I believe every bet in a casino the house has the edge, if not they would not be in business. Craps (certain bets can be better than other games and the Pass Line is one of the better bets), but the house still has the odds in their favor.

One thing the player has is the "comps" casinos give out. Free drinks, rooms, shows, meals, tournaments, etc. Overall these cost the casino little, but can be very valuable to the player.

The majority of players leave a casino with less money in their pocket than when they came in. Card counters can have an advantage in Blackjack, but once discovered they will be removed from the casino and banned, not just from that casino but ALL casinos owned by parent company. Get banned from Caesars, you would be banned from dozens of casinos all over the USA. MGM same thing. Boyd Group same. And many of these companies, although they are competitors, work together to ban card counting.
And don't be mislead by counters playing craps. They know they're going to lose, they don't do it to win. Rather, they do it to make large odds bets at even money (although they still have to make regular bets they'll lose on.) These odds bets don't change their overall win/loss but they create randomness--big wins and big losses rather than small wins most all the time.
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Old Nov 26, 13, 9:35 pm
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The house's edge on each 6 or 8 rolled is 1.515%. It is the lowest edge of all the place bets. However, you would do better to play the Come line - as they house's edge here is slightly lower at 1.414%. (and yes, both lose on a 7). So if you really wanted to "up your odds" you'd take your same betting system and instead go to a $1 table (or whatever is the lowest you can find), and bet the Come line with max odds behind it (Because the house has no edge on these odds). Assuming double odds this reduces the house's edge to .572% (or half the odds previously shown). If you can find better than 2x odds (3,4,5x odds or even 100x odds downtown Vegas), you'd lower the house's odds even more.

And actually, the best odds in the house for craps would be the don't pass line combined with odds - but personally I don't find routing against everyone at the table and with the house as fun (even though we'd pick up .05% in odds).

Data quoted above found here:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/
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Old Nov 26, 13, 10:30 pm
  #57
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Originally Posted by TravelinSperry View Post
but personally I don't find routing against everyone at the table and with the house as fun


My biggest wins are all BJ, but the fun times I've had were all hot craps tables.
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Old Dec 15, 13, 2:44 pm
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Originally Posted by Doc Savage View Post
I assume you are a billionaire then, OP?
LOL
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