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My craps system (It works. I win using this)

My craps system (It works. I win using this)

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Old Oct 27, 13, 5:28 pm
  #16  
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How about this...

"It works. I win using this...A FEW TIMES A YEAR."
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Old Oct 29, 13, 8:10 am
  #17  
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Originally Posted by mileage junkie View Post
How about this...

"It works. I win using this...A FEW TIMES A YEAR."
If you include:

*Past performance is in no way indicative of future results.
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Old Oct 29, 13, 12:21 pm
  #18  
 
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Originally Posted by mileage junkie View Post
How about this...

"It works. I win using this...A FEW TIMES A YEAR."
Originally Posted by tkey75 View Post
If you include:

*Past performance is in no way indicative of future results.
My pet peeve, as tkey75 notes, is that "systems" (at craps, and in most of gaming) do not work. In the short term, anything can happen.

There are many, who just don't understand that; or who are looking for the "golden ticket." While, I agree, it's not necessarily our (my) responsibility to look out for the suckers; I just tend to get a bit antsy when people talk about their "winning systems." *that is all*
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Old Oct 29, 13, 12:40 pm
  #19  
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Originally Posted by mileage junkie View Post
IF...you have ice water in your veins...bring $1128 to a $5 minimum crap table. With this system you profit EVERY TIME a 6 OR an 8 comes up. Put $6 on BOTH the 6 and 8 place bets. If a 7 comes up (and you lose) before EITHER a 6 or 8 comes up; increase your bet on BOTH 6 and 8 to $18. Then to $48 on each, if a 7 comes up before a 6 or 8 and you lose again; then to $132 on each, if a 7 comes up and you lose again; and finally to $360 on BOTH 6 and 8. EVERY time you win (when either a 6 OR 8 comes up)...go back down to $6 on BOTH 6 and 8. If you're willing to risk the entire $1128, the only way you lose doing this...is if FIVE 7s come up...before ONE 6, OR 8 (and that's the ONLY way you can lose all $1128...MINUS any previous profit of course). You are a 135-1 favorite with this system! (That is, the odds of FIVE 7s coming up before ONE 6 OR 8...is 135-1) If you've got the cajones, risk the $1128. ANY TIME a 6 or 8 comes up...you'll be winning for your ENTIRE session...from a little to a lot, depending on how long you've played for. So you can walk away at any time after a 6 or 8...and you'll walk away a winner! Again, you only lose your entire bankroll, if FIVE 7s come up...before ONE 6 OR 8!

By the way, 6 and 8 place bets pay $7 in profit, for every $6 you bet.
Sounds like a variant of the Martingale System.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
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Old Oct 29, 13, 12:40 pm
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Originally Posted by mileage junkie View Post
How about this...

"It works. I win using this...A FEW TIMES A YEAR."
I just lost using this method. Can you reimburse my loses, since you gave me the assumption that this system is fool proof?
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Old Oct 29, 13, 2:06 pm
  #21  
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Originally Posted by dieuwer2 View Post
Sounds like a variant of the Martingale System

That's EXACTLY what it is; as I've mentioned twice previously.
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Old Oct 29, 13, 2:08 pm
  #22  
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Originally Posted by mileage junkie View Post
That's EXACTLY what it is; as I've mentioned twice previously.
Do you work for the FED and have unlimited access to funds?
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Old Oct 29, 13, 11:44 pm
  #23  
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This system absolutely works. Until it doesn't. And you lose A LOT when that happens. I promise you, the Casinos can continue to profitably cover all of their small losses to folks such as the OP, with just the occasional bettor who totally flames out. And a large sample size of players guarantees that they will get their share of those. There is a reason all of the Casino hotels are really shiny, and glitzy, and display vast amounts of money from bettors just like yourself that has been profitably rolled back into their physical plants.
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Old Oct 29, 13, 11:48 pm
  #24  
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Originally Posted by flyboy60 View Post
This system absolutely works. Until it doesn't. And you lose A LOT when that happens.
That about says it all!
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Old Oct 30, 13, 1:40 am
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Originally Posted by mileage junkie View Post
That's EXACTLY what it is; as I've mentioned twice previously.
Even with unlimited bankroll (and unlimited wealth), Martingale Systems are a guaranteed loser.

You will eventually run up against the table limit (maximum bet).
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Old Oct 30, 13, 7:07 am
  #26  
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Originally Posted by baccarat_king View Post
Even with unlimited bankroll (and unlimited wealth), Martingale Systems are a guaranteed loser.

You will eventually run up against the table limit (maximum bet).
Or the casino figures out you are using Martingale and throws you out of the casino.
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Old Oct 30, 13, 10:56 am
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Originally Posted by dieuwer2 View Post
Or the casino figures out you are using Martingale and throws you out of the casino.
Why would they? They are more than happy to take your money.
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Old Oct 30, 13, 12:31 pm
  #28  
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Originally Posted by ibdsux View Post
There is no way to gain an edge at craps playing on the square (barring the occasional promotion). You can use betting systems to reduce variance, but the vigorish will get you if you play long enough. I haven't checked your math, but assuming it is true, 135-1 is not that much of a long shot given many trials. The odds of hitting a Royal Flush at Video Poker is approximately 40,000-1 yet there are royals hit multiple times each day in every major Vegas casino. I would bet a considerable amount that there is at least one being paid off on the Strip at this very moment.

If you want to get an edge gambling (that is, have a positive expected value over the long term) there are a few options. You can become an expert card counter at BJ (but when you get too good the casinos will likely bar you), find one of the positive EV Video Poker games and play perfectly, or become an expert at live poker/race/sports betting. I have no quarrel with the way you play if you find it exciting/satisfying. But if you really want to win in the long term you need to switch games.
Positive EV VP is my favorite, particularly the Deuces Wild. I can play it forever with minimal volatility.

I do recognize, however, that, without an unlimited bankroll, it is likely negative EV for me, even with perfect play. Why is that? Because to get the game to turn positive, you need to eventually hit that Royal Flush. In other words, even though the overall game is positive, I'm likely to lose a few bucks. No biggie.

What's worse, however, is how much the comps suck for VP players (not that I'd give good comps, either, if I ran a casino).

Mike
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Old Oct 31, 13, 12:32 am
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by mileage junkie View Post
How about this...

"It works. I win using this...A FEW TIMES A YEAR."
I live in LAS.
You forget why Casinos set MINIMUM and MAX limits.
The table limit is the minimum and maximum bet that a gambler can make at a gaming table. It is a form of yield management in that the limits can be changed to optimize the profit from a gaming table. Gaming tables have a limited resource to sell, the seats used by the players.

Lets try this at a $5 craps table: (Min $5 / max $200) (very simple example).
You bet $5 (lose), now the bet is $10 = to break even (you loose again).
Now $20. $40, $80, $160. That is six "7 outs" and now you can only place a $200 bet. But you need to bet $360 to break even.
Will the casino raise your limit to break even - Not going to happen.

Thanks for visiting LAS twice a year, and congrats on your winning. 30 years ago I thought this system would work. Over the long haul it does not. It was at that point I learned "how to win in casinos" - buy stocks in casinos.

One tip - swing buy the Gamblers General Store in LAS and check out about 10,000 books on this subject. If it worked so well, why did the author write a book and not spend his time in a casino, since the theory is always a win-win.

Also, on Weekends try to find a $5 craps table on the Strip. That is where "yield management" comes into play. That is why I pay no State Income Tax. Again enjoy your visits to LAS.
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Old Oct 31, 13, 2:02 am
  #30  
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Originally Posted by dieuwer2 View Post
Or the casino figures out you are using Martingale and throws you out of the casino.
They don't have to figure it out. I tell them that's what I'm doing when I walk up to the table.

And they've never thrown anyone out of a casino for a (legal) betting system in the history of Las Vegas (or any other casino town).
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