Will B6 fly to MSP?
 

Now that DL/NW are one, will B6 fly to MSP?

I believe MSP was on B6's radar for some time, but we will only see another new city or 2 at most this year.

Why would them being one (at the earliest several months from now) even matter? Its not like they were sharing MSP a hub.

No new US cities this year unless something dramatic changes.

With Oil at another record I think we will start to see some cuts in flights now. It is getting real expensive to fly to the marginal cities now. Parking the planes for 5-6 hours instead of doing a turn is actually going to be cheaper. This is starting to get really ugly, but the climate right now is to hang on and hopefully weather the storm.

$100/barrel oil is here to stay, companies are going to start looking for ways to survive in this new environment. Whether it's merging or charging for seats, companies are going to do whatever it takes. Even after the reported merger between Delta and Northwest I don't think you will see a pull down of MSP or DTW. We can't afford to throw planes and money at cities that are fortresses like DTW or MSP, it could/would hurt our bottom line. We are prolly going to go after new routes with little competition or routes that are well under utilized. I think the rest of this year is going to be a quiet restful year for JetBlue.

I hope so, but it is going to be pretty darn quiet and restful at MSP in a year or two when the NW/DL thing executes and the combined airline draws down unneeded hubs. That will create opportunity for B6 and VX that I hope they are able to take advantage of.

I'd look to MEM and CVG before MSP as potential hubs that DL/NW would trash. MSP is not a sure thing to last, but more likely than the other two.

I would say nothing at the new DL is a sure thing to last except ATL. They are pitching a load of hooey over there about preserving all seven domestic hubs, but that would defy the rationale for absorbing NW in the first place, which is to create one more efficient network with fewer choices and higher prices. As the combined airline retracts to resemble the pre-merger DL plus some juicy Asia routes and a bunch of RJs serving captive midwest markets, I would be willing to bet you'll be able to hold Sunday afternoon drag races on MSP's main runway without disturbing ops.

If B6/F9/VX can just stay healthy while this retraction occurs there will be plenty of expansion opportunity.

Here is what I see going on with the New Delta and hubs

ATL - enough said
JFK - TransAtlantic Gateway
DTW - Brand Spankn' new Gateway and supported by Michigan
SLC - West Coast Gateway
LAX - West Coast North/South Flying as well as Japan Gateway
NRT - To keep the Northwest Intra-Japan flying

Gone
CVG
MSP

strangely, you don't mention MEM.

Closting MSP will cost them hundreds of millions of dollars. Probably not going to happen too soon.

They can continue to call them all hubs and just reduce the number flights in some of them to right-size things.

Opps, forgot about MEM. MEM would be on my list of downsizing and possible closure.

MSP is considered a "fortress hub."

Regardless of what other hubs the merged carrier may keep or drop, I expect them to keep MSP. Northwest dominates MSP with a 67% market share. That's a big asset that Northwest brings to the merger. I can't see them giving that up.

With a Google search, I found this interesting article from earlier this year: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/...20News/984251/

The article begins:
A paragraph later in the article comments about Northwest's 67% market share at MSP:
Also, keep in mind that Northwest kept MSP and DTW, before, during, and after Northwest's Chapter 11 reorganization.

Northwest has an estimated 60% market share and a spectacular new terminal at DTW.

Northwest brings these two airports, where their dominant market share allows them to charge more, to the merger. They're not just hubs; they're also big origin and destination markets.

I can see the merged carrier reducing service at CVG and MEM, due to redundancy with DTW and ATL. Even at CVG and MEM, the merged carrier is likely to try to keep a dominant market position.

I have flown through DTW twice in the last 3 years on trips to Japan (EWR-DTW-NGO-DTW-EWR and LGA-DTW-NRT-NGO-DTW-EWR). It is a very nice, bright, and open terminal. Its a great asset to have and operate in. However, it does come down to one simple, underlying principle... does it pay the bills and, perhaps, leave a little change in their pockets at the end of the day?

Most people think CVG is going to "go away" or suffer a "pulldown" in service. I believe that the former is unfounded speculation; it is well known (or rumored) that CVG O/D pax pay the highest premiums in the country. Is Delta going to give away all of that revenue? Only if parking the RJ's is cheaper... they're going to have plenty of them.

Speaking of which, 75% of DL's CVG operation is operated with RJ's. My question is, if you're going to pull down the service, what are you going to pull down? A few daily frequencies most likely...

My speculation is that the CVG operation won't have any material changes to it. Tweaks, sure, but nobody is going to look back immediately pre-merger and say "remember what they CVG operation looked like when..."

We're drifting away from B6 issues here, but... DL has already stripped away mainline frequencies from CVG, which, coupled with tight (45 or 50 min) published conx times, is why I find connecting at CVG to be so terrible, especially when arriving on Comair. You arrive half an hour late, run across the airport, miss your mainline connection, and the next one isn't for 8 hours from now, or even until tomorrow.

Alot of people don't realize this but there are significant B6 related operations in MSP.

In what form?

what form of operations does B6 have at MSP?

Tons.

www.navitaire.com

Just because JetBlue is a customer of Navitaire, doesn't mean they have any operations at MSP, other than charters and diversions for whatever reason (i.e. medical, mx, wx). From what I understand, Navitaire does back office, consulting, and booking systems for airlines which JetBlue is one of.

yep, which is why I said 'b6 related'.

Yeah, there is a connection to a company located in the twin cities but that wouldn't warrant the need to describe the what little operations at MSP as tons.

By extension, there are significant B6-related operations in Toulouse. But I'm pretty sure that has nothing to do with whether they will fly there. :p

We'll have to disagree on that one but for me to be more specific I would have to say more than I can/will. I just thought it worth noting that it might be more likely that they would bring msp on due to the operations there. I have no inside knowledge whatsoever on whether they will or not.

Basically as stated in the CC, it's all about cash. No new cities to add to cash drain at least for the next few months, if oil begins to come down maybe things will change.