sbm12

That timing is not unusual and I'm sure the flight loads will be reasonable. The flights at odd hours to Puerto Rico are similarly crowded.

Mimi Imferst

2007/2008 US-Colombia Combination Frequency Allocation Proceeding

Order 2008-5-27
OST-2007-0006

Issued and Served May 21, 2008

Final Order - Bookmarked

By this Order, we make final our tentative findings and conclusions set forth in Order 2008-3-4 with respect to allocation of 21 U.S.-Colombia frequencies newly available under the U.S.-Colombia Air Transport Agreement and reallocation of seven weekly U.S.-Colombia combination frequencies currently allocated to American Airlines, Inc. (American), resulting in a total of 28 frequencies allocated in this proceeding.

Specifically, we award Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, Spirit Airlines, and Continental Airlines seven frequencies each, along with underlying economic authority, as needed, to provide combination services in the U.S.-Colombia market as follows: 1) Delta for its proposed New York (JFK)-Bogota services, effective immediately; 2) JetBlue for its proposed Orlando-Bogota services, effective immediately; 3) Spirit for its proposed Ft. Lauderdale-Bogota services, effective immediately; and 4) Continental for its proposed Houston-Bogota services, effective October 1, 2008



Great News!! I only hope Jetblue is still as thrilled with the idea and will get this up and running as quickly as possible. IIRC they have 90 days to begin the route. Peak travel season is coming.

nerd

Best of luck!

Still seems bizarre starting service from Orlando, since you're relying mainly on mid/small market cities in the NE that don't already have direct service, but they must know something we don't know!

JetBlueFA

DOT gave us the final nod, flights must start by October or we lose the authority.

N830MH

B6 will have issued for beginning 90 days to startup new routes from MCO-BOG. I'm surely if B6 will received award BOG authority or will not eventually able fly there. Its should be do that immediately. DOT will able issued all airlines must to be finalization approval USA-BOG frequencies.

Mimi Imferst

And they do it seems...

They are not only counting on the US side of the equation but also, on the Colombian side for direct service to/from MCO. There has been a discussion re this on this very thread. The US Dept. of Commerce info is part. interesting as well as their estimate of the Colombian population.

This is a letter in support of Jetblue's application.

http://www.airlineinfo.com/ostpdf68/665.pdf

The other letters from local leaders contained the same language and information. I guess they all received the same talking points memo?

Mimi Imferst

Cold feet?!?!?

I have followed Jetblue's decisions lately with the "suspension" of LAX and route dropping/station closing (jfk-tus,slc-sfo/bur) and I understand the reasoning behind those choices with heavy competition and/or low demand forcing an unprofitable yield but I don't understand the thinking that may put this route on the shelf.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/busin...,2876701.story

Start-up costs will be high, yes. Limited competition and yields that will increase the likelyhood of profitability in the near-term as well as a position in the one area of US aviation(intl.) that hasn't seen trashed yields should make this a no-brainer, even if it was being evaluated solely for a foot-in-the door factor for central and south america service alone. Thoughts?

sbm12

Not all international routes remain profitable. Delta has chosen to close up a number of international routes (or not start them) based on low yields. True, the yields are generally not as bad on international routes as they are on domestic, but that does not make them immune. And while building brand recognition is good in the Central/South American markets, doing so by glying an empty plane back and for won't be particularly helpful for the carrier.

The flight from MCO-BOG is about the same distance as JFK-DEN; it isn't quite a transcon but the costs for operating it are still pretty high. If B6 is going to lose money on it then it probably makes sense to hold off on starting the service. US and UA have delayed the start of their new China routes (US to PVG, UA to CAN), and China was generally considered to be a slam dunk money maker with high yields in premium cabin traffic, so anything is possible right now.

Seat13c

If they delay the start of the route, they run the risk of losing the route. IIRC, they have 90 days to start the route.

sbm12

True. UA petitioned the DOT and was granted an extension. US has not officially petitioned yet but it is expected. I would assume that B6 would follow a similar path, petitioning to delay service rather than just walking away from it. Only if the petition is denied would they then have to make a decision to fly the anticipated money-losing route or let it go.

Mimi Imferst

If this is the path that Jetblue takes, an extension on the start date, then the argument becomes elementary. Of course Jetblue should hold off and hope for better news in the coming months. But what if that better news doesn't arrive? The answers to the reporter's questions seemed anything but commited to this route.

This calls to light a shift in Jetblue's business philosophy. Jetblue has, in the nick of time, righted itself on fiscal responsibility. If this oil crunch had come a year earlier I think it is safe to say Jetblue would be in Chap.11. The change of focus to the near-term has brought this company back and are well-positioned to deal with the impending down-turn and oil crisis. Jetblue has this philosophy to thank. Having said that, it seems as though the pendulum is in danger of swinging from one extreme to the other. Understanding that retrenchment is of utmost importance right now, it still seems to me that when oportunity knocks loud enough, the door should be answered. The launch of this route is of ultra-importance if Jetblue is to diversify their network and build their status in Latin America. Surely, the long-term benefits to the bottom line with that diversification outweigh near-term costs for an airline that is reasonably healthy. Spirit, although little is known definitively of their financial health, has said that they will start FLL-BOG by the end of July.

There is a time for short-sightedness and for most parts of Jetblue's network that time is now. I argue that this route should be an exception.

MAH4546

Spirit made BOG flights bookable within a few days. They start July 24th.

jetBlue is getting cold feet about starting service in a market that, quite frankly, won't be able to support a daily A320 without significant feed, which jetBlue cannot provide.

If they don't start service within 90 days, it is obvious that another airline is going to try to claim the slots.

Mimi Imferst

It has already been well established that the DOT has compiled numbers for those pax traveling by air who depart MCO and arrive BOG or vice versa totals 50 per day.

It is also established that these numbers do not include pax traveling by car to other airports to begin their travel, most notably, MIA/FLL. Department of Commerce numbers state that Colombian visitors to the city of Orlando number 80,000 per year. It is probably safe to assume many of these visitors arrive through MIA and make the drive up to Orlando. There is also an estimated 100,000+ Colombians in Orlando alone. If given the option, wouldn't a large number of these pax prefer service to/from their planned origination/destination?

It is also known that nonstop routes normally stimulate demand on both sides of the route. With Orlando remaining a popular destination for Colombians it doesn't seem a stretch to apply that stimulation here and given the fact that Colombia has become, of late, a highly-touted tourist destination also lends itself to the likelihood that the DOT's numbers are either behind the times or they soon will be should Jetblue begin service.

Additionally, the route that was proposed would have originated in JFK and continued through MCO to BOG. The MCO departure was to be timed to pick up whatever connecting feed there was from Jetblue's Eastern network.

There is room here to go back and forth on numbers/prognostications all day but until this service is given a chance the result is unknown. It seems to me that there are too many variables to say for sure whether or not this route is DOA. That seems to be for Jetblue to decide.

nerd

Miami is the destination. Orlando is a side trip.

Mimi Imferst

Who's to say? Noone currently offers non-stop to MCO. MCO is a destination in itself. For many families MIA may be the destination by lack of options. Maybe for them MCO is the destination and MIA would be the side trip or not even visited at all. I agree with you that with the service that is currently available, MIA is the destination for almost everyone. That doesn't mean to say, however, that it always has to be that way.