rylan

Frontier is likely sitting there laughing at Jetblue's operational mess and thinking that there is no way a merger of Jetblue and Spirit is going to happen.

jiburi

Frontier laughing, not likely. If and when B6 and NK merger is approved, F9 position will be significantly diminished. B6 wants NK aircrafts, pilots and some routes, all of which Spirit can provide. Plus, eliminating ULCC NK can improve unsustainable fares, although they will likely be forced to keeping fares at current level for some time.

As for F9, F9 has reason to be nervous about this transaction. Without Spirit, F9 will become the largest of the domestic ULCC carrier. Operation a hub at DEN, with WN and UA with large presence, significantly impact their profitability. Unless F9 is pitching themselves at another airline for takeover, F9 really needed NK to unifying ULCC and diluting reliance to the already congested DEN hub.

Jiburi

dls25

That really doesn't make sense,

1) Most of F9's ops have been away from DEN for quite some time now.

2) F9 is probably happy. Let B6 overpay for NK, raise NK costs to B6 levels leaving the former NK network ripe for raiding by F9. F9 gets what it wants, the elimination of their main competitor, without having to spend a dime.

jjbiv

F9 would find lots of opportunity to deploy the new aircraft they have coming if NK and B6 merge. B6 has been pretty transparent that NK's employees and physical assets are what they are after. I doubt much of NK's network will survive post-merger. B6's unit costs are much higher than F9 and NK so they will need to fly a different network to be profitable.

beyondhere

LBE only has about 3 flights a day, MCO and FLL, one flight each, while seasonal for a few other markets, currently MYR. Maybe four departures from NK a day, and bigger operation than CAK and IAG but smaller than ACY. I drove there once from PIT area and I had to navigate US 30 over using a major highway for most of the drive. When I got there, the terminal was closed and there was an air show, and it felt like the whole town was out like it was July 4. The drive itself felt similar to when I drove to SBY airport, which also has a remote feel not near a major highway.

Given that JetBlue has increased RDU organically with LAX and proposed SFO, even before NK,
https://www.rdu.com/jetblue-launches-five-new-daily-nonstop-destinations-at-rdu/
https://www.rdu.com/jetblue-announces-seven-new-destinations-coming-to-rdu/

I wonder if JetBlue would consider making RDU a focus with the extra aircraft and slots at LGA. I think it would have enough LGA slots to offer RDU-LGA and maybe go 5x daily on it, DCA might be difficult as it is well covered and more drive-able. But maybe a flight to PHL and a few other cities.

bgasser

How many of those JFK/LGA-RDU flights are using AA's slots from the NEA? I highly doubt that the DOJ/FAA will allow the NEA to continue with a B6/Spirit merger.

dls25

JetBlue has not done all that well at RDU. They announced all those new routes and cut all of them except for CUN, which is barely hanging on at 1x weekly. JetBlue's route structure is not useful for someone based at RDU and merging with Spirit will not change that (in fact, the end of the AA relationship would probably make it worse).

GW McLintock

They kind of screwed the pooch with RDU. It was a great opportunity to build it up into a mini-DCA/SJU except with some actual long-haul stuff. I always wondered why it didn't work out so well.

-J.

dtremit

At least by the numbers, it seems to me that the NEA decision shouldn't be affected by a B6/NK merger — NK has no DCA or JFK slots, and negligible assets in BOS. They only have 22 slots at LGA, and (coincidentally) 22 departures tomorrow at EWR.

That's not to say the NEA will survive scrutiny on its own — it may very well not — but it seems like that analysis doesn't shift much with NK in the mix.

Of course, a merger gives DOJ the right to ask for whatever concessions it wants, so who knows.

(As an aside — looking at the numbers, the real question is how on earth DOJ let DL amass so many slots in NYC. Even combined, B6+AA is slightly smaller than DL when you consider LGA and JFK together.)

I don't know why, but RDU seems to be cursed as a focus city — AA's hub there in the '80s lasted less than 10 years, Midway went bust after a few years (albeit not thanks to RDU), US' traditional strength there was killed off by AA, and even Southwest seems to have cut way back from where they were a few years back.

It seems on paper like it should have a great catchment area (metro population is roughly the same as AUS, and with similar industry strengths), and it's a nice facility, so I'm not sure what the deal is.

CloneCones

Seems like Delta does alright there and it’s borderline a focus city or was pre-Covid

dls25

To make a focus city work, you need to have a full sized hub nearby to support connectivity. B6 flying RDU-AUS 1x daily is nice but if the schedule does not work for you B6 has no other option, even with a connection. It is difficult to make inroads with a thin schedule like that.

nsx

Any guesses as to when we will hear whether JetBlue or Frontier will win the bidding war? (Regulatory approval is a separate question.)

dx3003

rejected:

Brigri

Glad this was rejected, time for B6 to get their operation in order

Cat88L3

Same... I don't know how and why Jetblue is trying to take over Spirit. Jetblue is melting at the seams right now. They definitely need to get their own back on track. I love Jetblue, but I thought their takeover attempt was pure comedy. With everything happening with Jetblue, somebody please make it make sense 🤣 🤦🏾‍♀️