Will ABQ survive?
 

I flew JFK-ABQ round trip this past weekend and both legs had light loads. The ABQ-JFK flight last night had maybe 50 people. The good news was the flight left early, but I wonder how much longer the route has before B6 starts to take a hard look at the future profitability of the route. I have flown the route 4-5x since B6 began flying the route and it's been a lifesaver. I would hate to lose the route.

I realize the flight only began in April 2013 and there really hasn't been much publicity of the route after the initial announcement, but I really thought the route was viable and now I'm not so sure. Fares are in line with AA and United, which have a stopover in either DEN/ORD/DFW, so perhaps B6 fares will rise as people will pay the premium for the non-stop.

I do believe there are 2 points that will keep the route going for the foreseeable future.

1) The flight times allow for B6 to utilize an aircraft that may not be utilized on another route (JFK-ABQ leaves at 8pm, and ABQ-JFK is at 12am, with a 30-40 min turnaround).

2) Incentives - I think ABQ really needs this B6 flight and would be willing to subsidize the route for a few years. They are already paying for the overtime pay for the TSA employees and if B6 cuts the route, I doubt any airline will attempt to revive the route again. The worst case scenario I envision is B6 adding a quick stop in DEN and see if the route would be viable by adding DEN passengers.

Flight times are crappy. Maybe that's the reason for the light loads?

Take the darn plane and put it on DEN-LGB. Currently that's a big hole leaving the eastern and western networks unstitched.

Not gonna happen. There is no real demand to connect DEN passengers through LGB to get to SFO/SMF/PDX/SEA. And there aren't enough O/D passengers to justify using one of the extremely scarce LGB slots for such service.

There simply isn't enough O&D between ABQ and New York for a nonstop flight from JFK. From the second quarter DOT data, if you add EWR plus JFK plus LGA, there's a total of just 253 passengers daily each way, on average. And even with the very low fares charged by B6 ($151 each way), JFK featured just 90 PDEW. Sometimes, very low fares can stimulate traffic, but only if you're connecting two places where people want to fly. From the data, there aren't enough people wishing to travel between NYC and ABQ. B6 is the low-fare provider on this route, by a large margin - there's not much chance anyone will pay a nonstop premium.

I think they could make it work if they shifted the flight times such that one could connect to Europe or Africa. As it is now, the only place you can really connect to is Asia, and even still, with a long layover. And who would fly ABQ-JFK-HKG, for example; that would be silly.

Love the direct flight (I'm booked in April), but I only use it a couple of times a year. I suspect you are correct and its time is limited.

If the price is right customers are willing to do ANYTHING. At ATA I once had a guy who was flying GRR-MDW-EWR-SEA. I asked him why and he said it was $200 cheaper than flying GRR-ORD-SEA.

Time is money. I will not do "anything" even if the price is $0.

But there is for SLC?!

No. :p

I really think a DEN stopover is the best option. DEN - JFK only has 1 non-stop and its similar timing as the ABQ - JFK flight. The rest of the DEN - NYC flights (all 2 other flights!) include a transfer in BOS. I think they can operate a JFK - DEN - ABQ - DEN - JFK or even a JFK - ABQ - DEN - ABQ - JFK route with better timing than the current ABQ flight. Since there is no plane change, you don't need to worry about missed connections.

I know it's all wishful thinking, but I'll fly Jetblue over Southwest or AA any day and those are really the only decent NYC flight options.

Not sure what you mean - LGB-SLC is a current route; if that one works, surely LGB-DEN would.

I thought you meant connecting traffic DEN-LGB-SLC like the other destinations I listed.

LGB-SLC has minimal competition (DL 4x, B6 2x) and SLC gets a lot of company traffic.

Not as minimal as LGB-DEN. :D :D :D