Current Mega Quake Alert
 

Is anyone reconsidering their travel to Japan given the current warning and elevated risk of a mega quake? Would it be a qualifying event for travel insurance?

The predictions are an art not a science. The JMA was simply noting there has been more activity than usual and that this occasionally happens before a large quake.

I don't believe so, as the warning doesn't say anything is definitely going to happen (in fact it specifically says the opposite). I'd think an insurer would find that unconvincing as a reason to claim.

Here's the region where they estimate the impact could hit most directly in the coming days https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240809_24/

I'd avoid that area and pacific coastline for a while. SFO area resident here, though, and our region is similar to JP in that it needs to hit a certain level before long term residents move for cover. I have a healthy respect for tsunamis and their powers of destruction. Liquefaction isn't great, either. To be honest, as someone who went through Loma Prieta, residents of areas who were hit by earlier quakes like Fukushima/Sanriku Coast, Kumamoto probably have some PTSD when a large quake hits elsewhere, even though their "recoveries" are technically more "completed" than say Noto's. If you go through such a recent-ish rebuilt area and there's a large JP earthquake somewhere else, please keep in mind the rebuilt area's residents might be a bit stressed. It can be hard to work past the memories of the quake and terrifying aftershocks waking you up when you finally were able to sleep.

Scenarios for travel insurance:
Nothing seems to be happening but you opt not to go - Cancel for Any Reason coverage on the non-refundable portions. Not judging here. I've purchased this for cruises in typhoon/hurricane season and Iceland after volcanos were more active. Sometimes it just isn't what you want to do, even if things are operating.
Large quake happens while you are there, in that area - check policy coverage for non-medical evacuation and medical treatment/evac. Non-medical evacuation may get used if your party is fine as you want to leave as able to free up resources for locals and aid teams.
Large quake happens before you go and tsunami and/or critical infrastructure is hit (Fukushima situation) and you don't want to travel to Japan - Cancel For Any Reason coverage on the non-refundable portions. Typically purchased when you bought the initial policy. Most of my JP hotel bookings are refundable up to 3-5 days before arrival, if not even closer to check-in date, so it'd mostly need to cover flight (cash) costs and other non-refundable costs (local long distance transit costs?)
Large quake happens before you go, in the area you wanted to visit, but you're willing to travel to another area - probably work it out with the original intended destination's impacted hotels. Even if they are operating, it might just be a little too soon to visit.
Mid size quake happens - Wonder if the locals are staring at you as they don't seem to be worried. Go get some bottled drinks and food (and maybe some TP ;p ) as soon as it is safe, before the shelves are empty and wait out the aftershocks. Like the Mega Quake alert, there can be situations where the initial quake is smaller than the aftershocks. Actually, do this with a big quake, too, just double check for safety and get to an evac spot. Most hospitality staff probably have training and drills around these kinds of situations.
Small quakes - check social media and wonder if it was just someone clomping down the corridor.

FYI for non-earthquake/typhoon area dwellers - JP hotel rooms have an emergency flashlight and some like Dormy regularly stock an emergency water tank in the washlet area. You can also fill up the tub in case water gets shut off to have potable water or flush the toilet.

Disaster Preparedness guides
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/japan-d...e-preparation/
https://www.bousai.metro.tokyo.lg.jp...t_Prepared.pdf (Yes, my carryon/purse does contain a light source and at least a few snacks, especially as things go cashless which works when there's power & cellular data but power may go out or get turned off to prevent wildfire risk)

Insurance is YMMV. If you do get it, spend the time to research for decent independent policy (not an add on airline/booking site bundle holiday booking) & coverage and call them before purchase if you have questions https://www.reddit.com/r/MauiVisitor...ssons_learned/

Thanks, I will likely go, just wanted some opinions in case I’m doing something reckless and under estimating the risk. Coming from somewhere where earthquake isn’t a thing at all, I’ll be studying up on emergency procedures before departure.

Not at all, I'm going to Japan for the first time ever in six weeks time for a month long holiday at the start of October. Coming from New Zealand, sometimes known as The Shaky Isles where we get our fair share of earthquakes, it doesn't worry me in the slightest.
In the end, it is what it is and I'm not changing my plans.

We will fly in two weeks and have experienced some quakes (strength 4) during former trips. Nothing alarming happened, but not being able to stand up as the floor was shifting horizontally was a bit disconcerting. I agree with Outbound24: it is what it is.

If looking for the impact area imo this map is more relevant than the epicenter depiction: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/n...kstories/3512/

Tokaido shinkansen to Osaka is also running a bit slower for a week so the schedule is a bit delayed https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15382833 and may impact Obon travel. I think this is to reduce the possible dangers in case an earthquake causes derailment. Tohoku may be hit by a tropical storm early next week https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240810_13/ and get a month's worth of rain in a day. This can impact train schedules before, during, and after.

For those who are not aware - commonly used Western earthquake scales are logarithmic and measure release of energy. Shindo is a measure of ground shaking/intensity. Japanese news tends to give Shindo while their English reports tend to say Richter, but it's probably Moment magnitude. Just mentioning as that and a tsunami warning is useful to know in terms of assessing risk.
Loma Prieta was a 6.9 Mw (moment magnitude) and epicenter on land not far from inhabited areas. Tohoku was a 9 Mw/ 7 Shindo at sea, so some of the Tokyo videos are further from the epicenter are actually a Shindo 5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T...nami#Intensity. Christchurch was a 6.2 Mw on land https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_C...rch_earthquake

A 6 Mw on land near the epicenter is going to feel a lot more violent than a 5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_...ntensity_scale
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moment_magnitude_scale

If there is a tsunami warning, heed it. 90% of epicenter area Tohoku deaths are attributed to drowning. So if for some reason you're near the coast, you want to go for high ground and avoid cliffs. Erosion and movement can cause cliff side areas to collapse into landslides. If there is a tsunami warning, probably opt to visit the coast another day unlike the "oh, is it shaking" blase attitude you'll probably see from Japanese people after experiencing a 4 in a multi story building. Take the stairs if you leave soon after, though, instead of the elevator to be on the safe side (that isn't where I'd want to be stuck if/when an aftershock occurs) or up if your best choice is the same building's top floor. The warning might end up being an overestimation but tsunami usually accounts for larger loss of life than earthquake crushes.

Japanese buildings and bridges will likely survive the tremors but you might be shoved about so drop, cover, and hold. The buildings are usually built not to crumble https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ng-and-deadly/ but that usually means they'll sway. If you need to evacuate outdoors then look for clear areas. Avoid standing below electric lines and other things which might fall on you during aftershocks.

Those of us who choose to live in seismically active areas tend to go about our lives but there's also experience and drills (for school kids). It doesn't hurt to know how to assess the level of warning for the area you are in, restock your emergency kit, and check your exit routes. That is probably what plenty of Japanese people did over the last few days.

FWIW, I've asked cold weather residents some rather (probably stupidly basic) questions about living in real cold weather. If it hits 15/16 C in our moderate climate, I'm already in a puffy jacket, so I was clearly lacking the common sense to know toilet bowl water in an unheated house can freeze. Black ice, what is that? It's a good way for this silly tourist to put on an interpretive dance show for the locals but also result in an unwanted medical facility visit.

The only thing I'd add is that, even though Japan is very well-prepared, you probably shouldn't assume stores will be operating for a while following a decent-sized earthquake. My plan is to always have at least some food and water available at our lodging when I eventually visit. It doesn't have to be a ton, but I'll feel much more comfortable if I have enough to get through a day at least.

The government has more recently come forth to pretty much recant that Nankai megaquake warning from a few days ago:

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15384654

So probably no need to change your plans, (and with so many people now avoiding the area, you may now get a good deal along with a lack of crowds) but then again, there's still just as much of a chance of a massive Nankai earthquake happening as there was before, and its something they have been anticipating as an inevitability for years.

This has definitely drawn people’s attention towards their own disaster preparedness,

As a newly arrived family looking to acquire some of the essentials needed during the next month we came across shortages that store staff explained were related to the alert. Most difficult to get hold of have been larger packs of certain female sanitary products.

I definitely feel more uneasy using elevators on this visit. I’m noticing more which might have an emergency stash of water in a box/stool. Not great to be caught in an elevator during a quake at the best of times, but with the heat I don’t fancy my chances of lasting long without any liquids.

I don’t know what name/number is being given to the Typhoon currently heading towards Tokyo, have put a few things in the freezer should we need to stay put on the 16th/17th August.

Amazon is is great source for all the pads etc you might want. Weirdly, 15cc is the hardest to find but readily available within a couple days if planning ahead. Would not rely on brick and mortar for anything in a pinch. Way too much "It can't be helped" going on there. I highly recommend getting anything you must have pre-ordered and delivered to an address that can accept it in your behalf prior to your arrival. Or plan to visit a chemist in one of the major office towers in town. They are always well stocked.

Elevators should not be a concern unless you are a building owner. The shafts going out of commission is a bigger worry than getting stuck. You can escape an elevator. Most buildings, unless high end residential, will not have water/safety items stored in an in-elevator stool of sorts. And as a long term Tokyo resident, I have learned to always carry my own water even under normal conditions.


Food and water (and medicine) for up to a week is highly advisable. Services will likely be running again by then or at least other supply chains in place within a week, but not within 24 hours. Another thing people do is fill the bathtub if they are not using it and keep that on hand as a source of (usually) non-potable water.

A weeks worth of food and water really isn't practical when moving from hotel to hotel on a trip, unfortunately. I will be trying to strike a balance between being prepared and being mobile; basically, I don't want to be dragging a rolling bag of nothing but food and water between hotels. My hope is that larger hotels might be prepared to provide some water and food for guests, should an emergency arise.

Unless you are staying in a dive you ca rest assured the hotels will all have ample supplies to allow you to shelter in place should the need arise. Moreover of the hotel is not located in a standalone hotel building, but rather part of a larger multi-use building, chances are very good the building owner or management company will also have made provisions for severe eventualities On top of that each ward in each city absolutely has protocols and supplies in place. My comment was more directed at long term in the same apartment or similar location. :)

Having lived through 3/11 in Tokyo I must say we are a bit surprised by the level of concern / reports of hoarding / general level of fear. Perhaps it is because of 3/11? We are coming back home to Tokyo in less than 2 weeks and will be interested to see the bare shelves in our local grocery stores... I get it -- no one wants to miss a "big one" -- but this level of concern is surprising to us...

Is NHK running disaster prep spots 24/7? Our family in western Japan is giving this all a big yawn lol...

The advisory will be lifted today anyway.
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2...elopments.html

Haha. I think it's a bit overblown, I haven't seen any shortages or bare shelves in my part of Tokyo at least. The only people who've spoken to me about the alert are friends who are new to Japan, everyone else has been fairly unphased...

This photo was taken yesterday and is typical for the supermarkets around Shirokane Takanawa station.

It’s the shelves that sell rice. Rice is still available, but only in bags containing 1kg or less.
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...07dccee8a.jpeg

So go up the road to Akabanebashi or further west towards Meguro. Nothing but fully stocked supermarkets as far as the eye can see. I was in the supermarket near Meguro station yesterday afternoon getting some basics to replenish the fridge and it was as full of everything and daily produced ready to eat stuff as ever.

Really, I have not seen any shops with even a hint of less stocked shelfs than usual. Even rice is in normal supply.

Apart from the annoyance of the Shinkansen running 6 minutes late (insufferable) I have really not seen any indication that this warning has been anything but a random blip on people's radar.

In Osaka/Kobe area. My wife went shopping yesterday and all rice was sold out, apparently due to the warning. Certainly unusual to have no rice in the supermarket.

And Kanto is the region supposed to be more at risk from the Nankai Trough.....

I thought the rice shortage was due to low yield and stockpile being low? https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/1...racked%20grain I saw similar stories at the end of July so perhaps residents were already buying a bit of extra rice until this year's crop comes in and adding another bag or two in case of emergency/typhoons?

Also, yes, the news stories sometimes stated stock is low due to low yield and the tourists are eating more rice. It is probably true tourists in 2023 are eating more rice compared to 2020-2022, but tourism numbers haven't increased that significantly over 2019 when comparing by month https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/gra...rs--transition and likely less than 2019 for the 2023's rice supply months. I categorize that conclusion to be a bit more hand waving unless some further details are presented like all the visitors only eat at untimed unlimited onigiri buffets or something like that.

There might be a bit of 3/11 memories. I was watching NHK's "3/11 — The Tsunami: The First 3 Days" and my smart watch heart rate record definitely correlates (CA earthquake memories). The shaking is one thing but recalling the the disruption and aftershocks is another. Imagine how parents/caretakers might have felt walking home from work for what is normally a 45 minute train commute while power and much communication was down. I understand why some would want to stock up a bit on feminine goods, check battery levels, and replace expired emergency supplies as those are some actions within our control while the earthquake isn't. Also a bit of experience on how being out of certain creature comforts is annoying when staying at home for extended periods with intermittent or no power. Some people probably stocked up on Strong Zero. The milder tremors and power outages (wildfire precaution, larger storms, and power company not maintaining/upgrading things well) usually remind me to check on one part or another of my disaster preparedness gear & procedures.

There is generally little rice remaining from last years crop as noted above by Freecia. Seems that the folks at the Agriculture ministry have decided to mix rice again , which causes panic buying from a subset of the general population. Very few on here would remember the debacle from 90's. Also , and despite the price , the higher quality rice has been sold off. What remains is lower quality which is often used for sembei etc. which they are now mixing. Don't worry though , the rice situation will right itself in October or so.

My local supermarket was out of blue cheese today.
Time to leave the country.

I just stocked up on champagne, you have to have liquids for a few days in case of a major earthquake......

I do wonder if the locals are perhaps TOO cavalier in their attitude. After all, this is supposed to be a once every 100-150 years mega quake (if it happens). That's not something the vast majority of Japanese people have lived through.

By now the warning has been lifted, and we can allow ourselves to joke a bit more.

But in the end, we have seen quite big earthquakes and seen the impact of them. It depends a lot on where you live, but in central Tokyo in a reasonably modern building, the worry is probably not too great. But also, you can't walk around worrying about the risk of these events constantly, you'd go nuts. Japan is split over three continental plates, we get a lot of earthquakes.

Seems there was another cat 4 tremor in Kanazawa prefecture, maybe we will get the Nankai warning back?

Thought I felt something last evening.

Neither Tokyo (Kanto) or the Osaka area are at risk for the Nankai Trough earthquake and/or tsunami. It would mainly affect coastal south east Kyushu, southern coastal Shikoku, and coastal Kii Peninsula (mainly Wakayama and Mie prefectures). It could also potentially affect Nagoya and the Shizouka area, but no tsunami wave would probably reach around to Tokyo Bay (though with a non-Nankai Trough earthquake, that'd be a different situation...) You can see a map and article about it in English here: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15383066

(and by the way, that mega-quake warning actually ended today)

The lack of rice and/or bare supermarket shelves in Tokyo, Osaka, or anywhere other than the areas listed above is either due to the limited stock of rice (particularly since its the end of season) or if it is a supermarket in a foreign tourist area, especially if near where someone would be spending their final night in Japan, because its become a bit common for people to buy a few kilos of rice to take home to their countries since imported Japanese rice is way more expensive abroad than inside Japan.

Also, Tokyo is currently being hit with a typhoon, and this was forecast several days ago and hyped up on the news as a massive event, with hundreds of flights and even the Shinkansen cancelled in advance of today, so people have probably been freaking out due to the over-dramatic headlines and have stocked up on just about everything beyond necessary.

Thanks got sharing. Interesting to understand a bit more about the Nankai Trough areas.

We have not really been hit by the typhoon yet. Only starting to get some rain now (11am), and by the track of the typhoon those cancellations might look over cautious.

If we're talking about sustenance
 

If you are not one of those horrible persons who purchases items only to sell them for money later, this is when you should actually drink some of it. :star:

There is no known way currently to predict an earthquake. The warning was total B.S.

They are not predicting it per se, but saying that certain movements could have made it more likely to happen. But no, it is not science, more like gut feelings and guesstimates

The eastern parts of Osaka city are marked as tsunami flood risk on hazard maps, e.g. here https://www.city.osaka.lg.jp/kikikan...umen202107.pdf