Increase in Flights, Are Restrictions Lifting?
 

I have been really dying to go back to Japan all through covid. I was supposed to go to the 2020 Olympics but that never happened. I just received an email from ANA about increased frequencies in flights from the United States to Tokyo and I read that JL has been increase their flight frequencies as well. Has there been any news in country about the tourist restrictions being lifted? It seems odd to dramatically increase the number of flights when tourists are still banned from entering without a tour group?

There's been no announcement or even official suggestion about lifting restrictions on inbound foreign tourists, though Tokyo did just raise its Covid alert level due to an increase in new cases. There's an election next weekend (July 10) so there may be a type of immigration policy shift after that, but that's simply speculation.

But as far as increasing flight numbers, this may just be to accommodate Japanese and other residents who plan to travel abroad during their summer vacation, as well as any students who plan to enter into US universities for the fall semester.

Tourists are not the only type of passengers who flies internationally. Even before the pandemic airlines considered Japan as one of lucrative destinations for airline business because Japan has a higher number of non-tourist fly on paid business and first class tickets compare with other destinations. Those non-tourist passengers have been returning slowly to Japan which is leading to an increase in the frequency of flights. As far as airlines are concerned, those non-tourists fly on paid business and first class tickets are more important to airlines than tourists. One paid first class passenger can easily equal 8-10 tourists in the economy class revenue wise. It used to be airlines could break even with passengers flying in business and first class, tourists flying in the economy class was just the icing on the cake for airlines.

Airlines will do fine with the return of business and first class paying passengers in absence of tourists in the economy. It is actually not a good situation for airlines if the situation was tourists have returned in the economy class but an absence of business and first class fare paying passengers.

On the above point you can see this reflected in ANA’s seat maps. For many U.S. routes with the 777 (and previously Europe before the war), most of the physical space was dedicated toward first and business. The economy section is a tiny single cabin at the back, and there are almost an equal number of first and business class seats as there are economy.

One other reason for increased flights is the fact that Tokyo is a major hub between East/SE Asia and North America. Flights are increasing to SE Asia from Japan this summer as well, so beyond the domestic Japanese travelers, many US people will be transferring in Tokyo for travel to/from Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, etc. without ever entering Japan.

Which you can tell by the fact that airlines seem to have a lot of evening arrivals from the US, and morning departures to other Asian countries, in to a terminal that doesn't allow overnight stays :)

At least for ANA all the cases of that are at HND, which does allow for overnight stays. And those flights are mostly geared for those starting or ending in Japan.

The NRT terminal with no overnight stays has almost all flights arriving in quick succession and then departing an hour or two later in the afternoon of the same day.

Pre-pandemic that was the business plan for ANA. Executives on interviews with business press said that ANA will focus on Japan O/D passengers for HND flights and NRT flights will be focused on passengers transiting in Japan.

Remember reading on Japanese press back in April last year where the president of ANA was interviewed and said post pandemic ANA's business model will change. I been keeping my eyes on anything indicating this new business model for ANA but I have not seen specific information mentioned yet. It is possible that the situation is still fluid that ANA thinks it is not the time yet to announce or finalize their post pandemic business plan. But one thing the president of ANA mentioned in the interview I read back in April last year, ANA may shift current balance of international/domestic operation to little more domestic heavy operation.

During the pandemic ANA has retired old 777s they had. ANA has 777X on order as a replacement aircraft for 777-300s, but delivery of 777X has delayed till 2055 due to delay in the certification process Boeing is facing. This could be blessing for ANA, I do not think ANA would like to accept new777X now. I wondered about ANA's A380s but looks like at least for now ANA is keeping three A380s.

while i prefer ANA, all of my status and points are in oneworld, and JAL has a terrible NRT schedule, and HND awards have been difficult to find

Wow - that's a substantial delay! It's quite probable that the 777X is obsolete before certification.

Increase in transit pax is the primary motivation IMO. As is evidenced from the near full flights and 75%+ (often even more) transit pax.

I like both NH and JL. I'm really frustrated with JL because I see a bunch of fares for this fall that have a good price, but it requires me to go from HND to NRT. That's not possible with current rules. I hesitate to book a fare with this kind of uncertainty. Hopefully, there will be good news after the election. This is ridiculous and makes transiting in Japan difficult and annoying!

🤣🤣🤣

​​​​​​​I think it's been reported as 2025 at the earliest.

Toyo Keizai Newspaper (business/economics press) reported the information from quarterly shareholders meeting of ANA and JAL. The information provided during the shareholders meeting in August, during second quarter of this year (April - June 2022) about 50% of international passengers ANA carried was transit passenger in Japan, origin and destination was not Japan. 50% of international passengers ANA carried was destination/origin Japan. For JAL, 30% of international passengers carried was transit passengers in Japan, origin and destination was not Japan. 70% of international passengers JAL carried was destination/origin Japan.

Domestic demand was about 60% of pre-pandemic and international demand was about 30% of pre-pandemic.

Delta thinks there will be changes coming. Unlike JL/NH/UA they don't have a partner at HND so they can't rely much on connecting passengers.
https://news.delta.com/delta-resumes...rvice-honolulu

Delta will resume flights from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) to Tokyo International Airport (HND) beginning Oct. 30 in anticipation of Japan’s easing travel restrictions.

I doubt Delta has any secret knowledge that other companies/we do not have. They are probably just hoping and will start cancelling flights if there are no changes in policies... It is also possible with the online visa system for business travel they figure there might be an increase in that.