We are now 180 days away from our 1st Japan trip,does anyone have an educated
 

opinion if we are going to be let in.We are US Citizens and we had rescheduled our trip from a 2020 planned Sakura trip??

We're scheduled to arrive in Japan the last week in January for a 3 week trip. We are not expecting to go. Both US citizens. Fully expecting to kick the can to January 2022.

I work for a Japanese company and usually have to travel there 2-3x per year. I do not think I will be back there before the Olympics.

Even in their phase 1 (essential workers) and phase 2 (educational/students) plans, the 14 day quarantine is in effect. And since the government is highly focused on having the Olympics next summer, I think they will be very conservative about entering Phase 3 (general tourists) and then adding countries to the allowed list.

Unless there is a dramatic change in our (USA) trend or in detection/treatment in the next few months, I would say unlikely.

My gut feeling: April or May 2021 at the earliest. I'm about to cancel my November trip and rebook for mid May.

My guess is that tourists will be able to travel by then. Either there will be a vaccine and tourists will need proof of vaccination, or they will require a negative covid test before travel.

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/32633083-post2346.html

lets carry on further Covid related musings on future Jpn travels in existing thread.

I'd say possible but somewhat unlikely.

Get back to us in February. :eek:

We are in the same boat. March 2020 trip rescheduled to March 2021 trip. Assumption at this point is it won't happen and we're likely going to book a domestic alternative so we have an option if we have to push back to 2022.

Thanks for all the responses.I really do not want to push into 2022 so if there is a reschedule it will probably be to fall of 2021 to catch the change of seasons. I really hope there is a SAFE vaccine by early next year. I will not be a guinea pig for a rushed vaccine.

How would anybody have an "educated" opinion about a situation that has never happened before? Our opinions are all just opinions.

My opinion is that it depends more on what happens in the United States than what happens in Japan.

Also, citizenship doesn't matter so much as where you've been. If you want to spend two weeks in Canada before coming here, then your odds may improve (assuming you can get to Canada by then).

Every year at this time I start looking for flights to Japan for my family for Easter (late March/April) and generally have them booked by October/early November.

I won’t be doing that this year for Spring 2021.

Haven’t ruled out next year’s trip, but am not expecting to go either. IMO, whatever happens between now and next Spring is meaningless, I’ll be waiting to see how things look once I reach my February vantage point.

The main thing about 2021 is:
Even if there is a vaccine against Corona / Covid in Europe or the US, as long as Japan does not approve that vaccine they won't change politics. Hell no, even if they approve that vaccine... that doesn't mean we are immediately allowed to enter Japan for tourism.

Our trip in 12/20 won't happen. I'm unsure whether to reschedule to 05/21, later 2021 or to cancel the whole booking and rebook it for 2022 when the situation has been lifted.

In that case you should be prepared to wait at least another 12 to 18 months after a vaccine is introduced.

Personally, I wouldn't want my first Japan trip to be during or just after the end of the Corona Era. You're not really getting the true experience at that point. Two or three years after would be ideal, IMHO.