Last edit by: CPH-Flyer
This thread is for discussion of the coronavirus / COVID-19 pandemic as it relates to Japan. Non-Japan-related discussion should be taken either to the most relevant forum, the Coronavirus and Travel forum, or the OMNI forums.
UPDATE FOR TOURISTS LOOKING TO VISIT JAPAN AFTER COVID-19 BORDER RESTRICTIONS EASE
Japan does currently not allow entry for general tourism purposes. Most visa waivers are suspended, and travel to Japan for non resident foreigners generally require a visa. And quarantine as described for the countries and territories below.
UPDATE FOR PEOPLE WITH VISAS THAT ALLOW ENTRY INTO JAPAN
The quarantine requirements mentioned below will generally apply to entrants in Japan. As the conditions of who can obtain a visa for entry on exceptional circumstances are not clearly listed anywhere, it is necessary to confirm entry requirements with your local Japanese diplomatic representatives
Spouses and children of foreign permanent residents or Japanese nationals, can obtain visas for short term stays (up to 90 days) by applying in person or by mail at an overseas Japanese consulate. Required documentation includes application form, letter with reason for purpose of visit, bank statement and Koseki Tohon. Processing times have been reported as on the spot to up to one week.
From March 1st, business travelers, students and technical trainees can again enter Japan. There is a need to have a receiving organisation to apply for the visa. For business travelers, there will be one point of contact with the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare. Though the full details are not published yet (as of typing on the 27th of February, please add them if you have seen them)
Business travelers must have a Japanese company or organization apply for a Certificate for Completion of Registration to the MHLW ERFS system. This is a two step process. The company must first register and then apply for the Certificate for the traveler. These can both be done online and completed in less than an hour.The website for doing this is https://entry.hco.mhlw.go.jp/.
After getting the certificate the traveler must apply for visa at the Japanese Consulate or Embassy with jurisdiction for where they reside. (They are quite strict about this. E.g. you can't apply while traveling in a foreign country.) The information on the Consulate pages state that you need Letter of Guarantee, Invitation Letter, etc when applying for the visa. In fact, however, if you have the EFRS certificate, all you need is the visa application, your passport and a photo. The Consulate will issue the visa within 5 days.
UPDATE JAPANESE CITIZENS AND RETURNING FOREIGN JAPAN RESIDENTS
All people travelling to Japan has to present a negative PCR test taking no earlier than. 72 hours before departure to be able to board the flight. The certificate has to meet the information requirements and test types from the Japanese government.
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/000799426.pdf
From the 7th of June, passport number, nationality, signature and stamp from the doctor/medical institution are no longer required.
The requirement for pre-departure test will be removed for passengers on flights landing after the 7th of September 00:00 provided that they have received a full bases vaccination and a booster vaccination. Accepted vaccines are Moderna, Pfizer, Astra, Zeneca, J&J, Novavax, Covaxin.
Uploading documents in advance via the mysos app or via the mysos website is required. For details please see https://www.hco.mhlw.go.jp/en/
The arrival process is as follows. Countries will be grouped in red, yellow, and blue.
Red countries:
Albania, Sierra Leone
Yellow countries:
Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Bhutan, Botswana, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Cook Island, Cuba, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominica, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Grenada, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Kosovo, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Macau, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, Nauru, Nicaragua, Niger, Niue, North Korea, North Macedonia, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Portugal, Republic of Burundi, Republic of Congo, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Republic of Vanuatu, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Solomon, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria, Tajikistan, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Ukraine, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vatican, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zimbabwe
Blue countries:
Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentine, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote d’lvoire, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Kyrgyz, Laos, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Sudan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States of America, Western Sahara, Zambia
For updates to the lists of countries and territories and changes to the rules check the website of the ministry of foreign affairs https://www.mofa.go.jp/ca/fna/page4e_001053.html and ask in the thread for clarifications and experiences of entering Japan.
UPDATE FOR TOURISTS LOOKING TO VISIT JAPAN AFTER COVID-19 BORDER RESTRICTIONS EASE
Japan does currently not allow entry for general tourism purposes. Most visa waivers are suspended, and travel to Japan for non resident foreigners generally require a visa. And quarantine as described for the countries and territories below.
UPDATE FOR PEOPLE WITH VISAS THAT ALLOW ENTRY INTO JAPAN
The quarantine requirements mentioned below will generally apply to entrants in Japan. As the conditions of who can obtain a visa for entry on exceptional circumstances are not clearly listed anywhere, it is necessary to confirm entry requirements with your local Japanese diplomatic representatives
Spouses and children of foreign permanent residents or Japanese nationals, can obtain visas for short term stays (up to 90 days) by applying in person or by mail at an overseas Japanese consulate. Required documentation includes application form, letter with reason for purpose of visit, bank statement and Koseki Tohon. Processing times have been reported as on the spot to up to one week.
From March 1st, business travelers, students and technical trainees can again enter Japan. There is a need to have a receiving organisation to apply for the visa. For business travelers, there will be one point of contact with the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare. Though the full details are not published yet (as of typing on the 27th of February, please add them if you have seen them)
Business travelers must have a Japanese company or organization apply for a Certificate for Completion of Registration to the MHLW ERFS system. This is a two step process. The company must first register and then apply for the Certificate for the traveler. These can both be done online and completed in less than an hour.The website for doing this is https://entry.hco.mhlw.go.jp/.
After getting the certificate the traveler must apply for visa at the Japanese Consulate or Embassy with jurisdiction for where they reside. (They are quite strict about this. E.g. you can't apply while traveling in a foreign country.) The information on the Consulate pages state that you need Letter of Guarantee, Invitation Letter, etc when applying for the visa. In fact, however, if you have the EFRS certificate, all you need is the visa application, your passport and a photo. The Consulate will issue the visa within 5 days.
UPDATE JAPANESE CITIZENS AND RETURNING FOREIGN JAPAN RESIDENTS
All people travelling to Japan has to present a negative PCR test taking no earlier than. 72 hours before departure to be able to board the flight. The certificate has to meet the information requirements and test types from the Japanese government.
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/000799426.pdf
From the 7th of June, passport number, nationality, signature and stamp from the doctor/medical institution are no longer required.
The requirement for pre-departure test will be removed for passengers on flights landing after the 7th of September 00:00 provided that they have received a full bases vaccination and a booster vaccination. Accepted vaccines are Moderna, Pfizer, Astra, Zeneca, J&J, Novavax, Covaxin.
Uploading documents in advance via the mysos app or via the mysos website is required. For details please see https://www.hco.mhlw.go.jp/en/
The arrival process is as follows. Countries will be grouped in red, yellow, and blue.
- Group “Red”:On-arrival test is required. 3-day quarantine at a government-designated facility is required, however, those who obtain a valid vaccination certificate may have 5-day home quarantine (or 3-day home quarantine + negative result of a voluntary test) instead.
- Group “Yellow”:On-arrival test and 5-day home quarantine (or 3-day home quarantine + negative result of a voluntary test) are required, however, those who obtain a valid vaccination certificate are not required to have on-arrival test, home quarantine and other measures.
- Group “Blue”:Regardless of the vaccination status of the entrants/returnees, on-arrival test, home quarantine and other measures are not required.
Red countries:
Albania, Sierra Leone
Yellow countries:
Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Bhutan, Botswana, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Cook Island, Cuba, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominica, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Grenada, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Kosovo, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Macau, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, Nauru, Nicaragua, Niger, Niue, North Korea, North Macedonia, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Portugal, Republic of Burundi, Republic of Congo, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Republic of Vanuatu, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Solomon, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria, Tajikistan, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Ukraine, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vatican, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zimbabwe
Blue countries:
Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentine, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote d’lvoire, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Kyrgyz, Laos, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Sudan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States of America, Western Sahara, Zambia
For updates to the lists of countries and territories and changes to the rules check the website of the ministry of foreign affairs https://www.mofa.go.jp/ca/fna/page4e_001053.html and ask in the thread for clarifications and experiences of entering Japan.
Coronavirus impact in Japan [consolidated]
#2641
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Thanks for the Memories !!!
Posts: 10,656
Didn't the "TO" put a huge whole in the reserve fund by backing up the onegai system the last wave (or was it 2 waves ago) ? Hence the "shoganai" attitude ? Suga was noticeably sweaty during his short news conference today. Then there was the Ministry of Education holding a meeting telling the Universities to have more in-person classes as the Minister has received complaints of many students that they haven't been to campus nor been able enjoy campus life. So it goes........
#2642
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Hilton, Hyatt House, Del Taco
Posts: 5,376
They are still talking about 14-day quarantine next summer. (Jpn officials are contemplating waiving that requirement just for Olympic ticket holders only, according to this and other reports)
https://globalnews.ca/news/7457843/t...on-organizers/
I wonder if it's now pretty much a given that the 14-day quarantine for the general public will continue through next summer and beyond.
Of course there's a lot of factors in play (vaccine distribution and efficacy, Covid situation disparity between different countries).
But it's safe to assume majority of the general population in the first world will not have been vaccinated by next summer.
So it seems to me that we're still dealing with the same issues next summer.
And the only way tourism to Jpn from US/Europe becomes possible by next summer is if Jpn modifies the quarantine rule.
There appears to have been no discussions about modifying restrictions to a curtailed version, such as test upon arrival then 5-day quarantine followed by final test.
Was hoping something like that would start up in early part of next year.
But now things are trending in the wrong direction, which doesn't help build momentum for such discussion.
I've been planning for a family trip next summer, but I'm getting less optimistic.
If someone's more optimistic than I am about their chances of visiting Jpn next summer without a 14-day quarantine, I'd like to hear it.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7457843/t...on-organizers/
I wonder if it's now pretty much a given that the 14-day quarantine for the general public will continue through next summer and beyond.
Of course there's a lot of factors in play (vaccine distribution and efficacy, Covid situation disparity between different countries).
But it's safe to assume majority of the general population in the first world will not have been vaccinated by next summer.
So it seems to me that we're still dealing with the same issues next summer.
And the only way tourism to Jpn from US/Europe becomes possible by next summer is if Jpn modifies the quarantine rule.
There appears to have been no discussions about modifying restrictions to a curtailed version, such as test upon arrival then 5-day quarantine followed by final test.
Was hoping something like that would start up in early part of next year.
But now things are trending in the wrong direction, which doesn't help build momentum for such discussion.
I've been planning for a family trip next summer, but I'm getting less optimistic.
If someone's more optimistic than I am about their chances of visiting Jpn next summer without a 14-day quarantine, I'd like to hear it.
#2643
Join Date: Sep 2009
Programs: UA GS>1K>Nothing; DL DM 2MM; AS 75K>Nothing>MVP
Posts: 9,341
They are still talking about 14-day quarantine next summer. (Jpn officials are contemplating waiving that requirement just for Olympic ticket holders only, according to this and other reports)
https://globalnews.ca/news/7457843/t...on-organizers/
I wonder if it's now pretty much a given that the 14-day quarantine for the general public will continue through next summer and beyond.
Of course there's a lot of factors in play (vaccine distribution and efficacy, Covid situation disparity between different countries).
But it's safe to assume majority of the general population in the first world will not have been vaccinated by next summer.
So it seems to me that we're still dealing with the same issues next summer.
And the only way tourism to Jpn from US/Europe becomes possible by next summer is if Jpn modifies the quarantine rule.
There appears to have been no discussions about modifying restrictions to a curtailed version, such as test upon arrival then 5-day quarantine followed by final test.
Was hoping something like that would start up in early part of next year.
But now things are trending in the wrong direction, which doesn't help build momentum for such discussion.
I've been planning for a family trip next summer, but I'm getting less optimistic.
If someone's more optimistic than I am about their chances of visiting Jpn next summer without a 14-day quarantine, I'd like to hear it.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7457843/t...on-organizers/
I wonder if it's now pretty much a given that the 14-day quarantine for the general public will continue through next summer and beyond.
Of course there's a lot of factors in play (vaccine distribution and efficacy, Covid situation disparity between different countries).
But it's safe to assume majority of the general population in the first world will not have been vaccinated by next summer.
So it seems to me that we're still dealing with the same issues next summer.
And the only way tourism to Jpn from US/Europe becomes possible by next summer is if Jpn modifies the quarantine rule.
There appears to have been no discussions about modifying restrictions to a curtailed version, such as test upon arrival then 5-day quarantine followed by final test.
Was hoping something like that would start up in early part of next year.
But now things are trending in the wrong direction, which doesn't help build momentum for such discussion.
I've been planning for a family trip next summer, but I'm getting less optimistic.
If someone's more optimistic than I am about their chances of visiting Jpn next summer without a 14-day quarantine, I'd like to hear it.
My guess is that Japan will slow the vaccine down with a lot of bureaucratic BS. Average new drug takes an extra 7 or 8 years to get approved in Japan. Maybe they can cut that in half for a Covid vaccine and open back up in 2025.
#2644
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Tokyo
Programs: JAL Metal Card (OWE), SAS Eurobonus Gold (*G), Marriott Titanium (LTP), Tokyu Hotels Platinum
Posts: 21,105
Maybe they can follow the track of Viagra, probably the fastest approved drug in Japan....
#2645
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 2,303
Does Japan still have PCR test volume constraints or have they significantly increased the testing volume? I thought that was one of the current challenges to enabling a shorter self isolation + test after 3-5 days for business travelers? My local SF area public health officer asked us not only to stay home for the upcoming holidays to reduce spread but to also keep some PCR testing capacity available for essential & frontline workers who need it (our rates are rising, too).
Family visits tend to be prolonged visits indoors with lots of talking, food, & drink (mask off). It is a higher risk situation so depending on how things are, even if US passport holders are allowed with a shorter quarantine, it might be prudent to self isolate 14 days before visiting elderly relatives or those who would later come in contact with elderly relatives. I think there's plenty of shoganai and quarantine fatigue going on based on increasing rates of transmission and people tend to make different risk assumptions for friends and family.
I don't see the vaccine being rolled out faster than your estimate, either, though some (not-bio/med) co-workers have hopes of early summer. I guess it's nice that they're hoping I can travel in Japan next year I'll settle for more JP shops taking my international credit card and Muji.us getting restocked + more inventory listed online since Muji exited CA. Muji JP doesn't take international CC and JP prepaid virtual CC 8gram or Transferwise requires MyNumber. This isn't unreasonable but sure does make JP retail economic stimulus a little more difficult.
#2646
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Cape Cod
Programs: Free agent
Posts: 1,535
What do we think about traveling to Japan having been vaccinated in the US but the vaccine having not been approved in Japan?
#2647
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
Has anyone traveled to Japan from the US with a pre-departure test certificate signed by a NP/PA as opposed to a physician? If so, was there any issue with this at Immigration? The official form says “doctor signature” but it is actually quite difficult to find a place here in the US where a full-fledged doctor performs the test.
#2648
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 2,303
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...irus-vaccines/
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...irus-vaccines/
There's other vaccine variables, though:
No vaccine clinical trials currently in progress for children https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/w...cal-trials-yet I'd wager those with kids, traveling with kids, who would be visiting family & friends in JP may have some other considerations which I haven't thought of as a mostly solo adult traveler with little prolonged contact with children.
There seems to be a goal of ~70% coverage to provide some herd immunity so social interactions can resume. That seems like a fairly high goal if the vaccine isn't approved for people under 18 based on US population. Scientists aren't sure about how frequent the vaccinations need to be and different vaccines may have different longevity & efficacy.
JapanTimes language seems to suggest the vaccine will be optional (for those who want it) and not mandatory. Optional vaccine rates in Japan aren't nearly as good. That may matter less if community transmission remains lower in Japan and relying on lower probability of transmission from inbound/returning travelers but there were 31 million inbound travelers to JP in 2019 with 20 million outbound
https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/gra...rs--transition
https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/gra...ng--transition
40% resumption of inbound travel would still put us at ~ 2015 levels (where you could still get a foot of personal space at Kyoto's popular shrines outside of busy seasons if lucky?) and outbound would be near the late 1980's. So it might be reasonable to think that without the vaccine reaching good coverage rates or effective self isolation, spread increasing due to importation would still be a problem.
Last edited by freecia; Nov 22, 2020 at 2:59 pm Reason: optional vaccine
#2649
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Hilton, Hyatt House, Del Taco
Posts: 5,376
There's too much we don't know about the covid-19 vaccines, as freecia says. There are published reports on the efficacy rate, but no one knows how that translates to reality, intermediate term, long term, whether a vaccinated individual is no longer contagious, etc.
Even as these things start to become clear, ultimately it still comes down to how each country interprets the available info and wants to do.
Iceland's been letting in Europeans on the condition of 5-day quarantine with 2 negative tests. Seems to be doing fine despite Covid being out of control in UK and Europe. Iceland's had its second wave, but its second wave was far milder than on the continent.
Almost all visitors to Jpn are staying no more than 2-3 weeks, right? 90% of my trips to Jpn are 3-10 nights long.
If I have 9 full days in Jpn and the first 5 are quarantine, that to me is still worth it probably. But a 14-day quarantine is simply impossible for me, and I can't see it being worthwhile even for someone who has 20 days in Jpn.
I'm hoping for my own sake that the Olympics (if they have it) will be the impetus to Jpn changing their policy.
Even as these things start to become clear, ultimately it still comes down to how each country interprets the available info and wants to do.
Iceland's been letting in Europeans on the condition of 5-day quarantine with 2 negative tests. Seems to be doing fine despite Covid being out of control in UK and Europe. Iceland's had its second wave, but its second wave was far milder than on the continent.
Almost all visitors to Jpn are staying no more than 2-3 weeks, right? 90% of my trips to Jpn are 3-10 nights long.
If I have 9 full days in Jpn and the first 5 are quarantine, that to me is still worth it probably. But a 14-day quarantine is simply impossible for me, and I can't see it being worthwhile even for someone who has 20 days in Jpn.
I'm hoping for my own sake that the Olympics (if they have it) will be the impetus to Jpn changing their policy.
#2650
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: 1A
Programs: UA GS, NH Diamond, Hyatt Lifetime Globalist (formerly Courtesy Card sadly), Amanjunkie, CLEAR
Posts: 3,713
Freecia - JP Post / EMS restarted to the US two weeks ago. I just sent all of my Christmas cards at the local JP Post in Azabu Juban with no issues.
#2651
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Tokyo
Programs: JAL Metal Card (OWE), SAS Eurobonus Gold (*G), Marriott Titanium (LTP), Tokyu Hotels Platinum
Posts: 21,105
#2652
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Cape Cod
Programs: Free agent
Posts: 1,535
I was less focused on the ground level analysis of the vaccine itself and more focused on what the policy may be. We're targeting Feb 2022 to rebook our trip and it's very likely we'll have been vaccinated (I'll be first in line) and if the vaccine isn't mandatory in Japan will there still be a mandatory quarantine for inbound travelers? I know this is just guesswork but there's little to do but speculate right now.
#2653
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Beantown! (BOS)
Programs: AA PtPro (2 MM); Hilton Diamond; Hertz President Cr; DL SkyMiles; UA MileagePlus
Posts: 3,435
I was less focused on the ground level analysis of the vaccine itself and more focused on what the policy may be. We're targeting Feb 2022 to rebook our trip and it's very likely we'll have been vaccinated (I'll be first in line) and if the vaccine isn't mandatory in Japan will there still be a mandatory quarantine for inbound travelers? I know this is just guesswork but there's little to do but speculate right now.
But personally, I think situation is still fluid and difficult to say what will happen. If COVID-19 cases keep increasing during first half of 2021 in Japan, then I do think it is entirely possible that Japanese government will not let tourists travel into Japan and Olympics will not take place. Personally I think at this moment Japanese government does not want to have Summer Olympics in 2021 if that means COVID-19 cases get worse in Japan. I understand I may be talking about worst case scenario. But I think Japanese government will decide based on COVID-19 case numbers, not availability of vaccine.
Clinical tests on those vaccine looks pretty good so far, but we do have to wait and see how many people in Japan will take vaccine and if effectiveness of vaccine in real world situation will mirror the clinical trail? We do not know that.
At this moment I personally think we cannot tell what tourists travel situation in Japan will be like in Feb 2022. I personally think we have to wait till Fall of 2021 to get some idea of Feb. 2022 situation. Personally, I think at Fall of 2021, how many vaccine will be available, how many people in Japan have taken vaccine at that moment, and what is COVID-19 case number is like at Fall of 2021.
I think when whole thing started in the U.S. in March many thought this will be a month or two situation, three months at worst. I do not think any though at the end of 2020 we will still not see any improvement of the situation, but that is what going to look like at end of this coming December. I think it is too early to even start to predict what Feb. 2022 will be like in terms of tourist travel to Japan.
#2654
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 2,016
But how reliable are the restarted airmail services? Airmail to Europe was resumed several months ago, but I have not dared to test if it actually works because I'm afraid that shipments will just be stuck forever at the airport waiting for space on a flight and then Japan could suddenly decide to suspend airmail again and return the shipment to the sender. Instead, I've stayed with Amazon (since I trust their DHL shipping) and surface mail. Although surface mail is very slow (2-3 months), I still know that I will get my stuff at some point.
#2655
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Thanks for the Memories !!!
Posts: 10,656