TA

Just to check -- those dates on the maps are specifying the first bloom, correct? And max bloom comes ~7 days later?

LapLap

Yes. I’ve ammended the post, thanks.
Bear in mind that the sakura bloom is predicted to be on the “fast side” this year. Once full bloom arrives (about a week later than the first bloom dates) it may not last a further full week after that.

LapLap

Weather check:
A whopping 17C today in Tokyo (62F). Then after about 3 coolers days (10C/50F) it looks set to continue the warmer than average trend.
In Kyoto it was 18C today and only warmer than average weather is predicted.

I wouldn’t bet money on the dates for the Sakura for either of these regions creeping to any later in the calendar. I’d also be wary of catching the full bloom “show” any later than 5 days after the predicted full bloom dates (and even the last of those 5 days I’d be cautious about). I stress, this is my personal view.

A cold front, perhaps some unexpected snow, could still arrive to prolong the Sakura season, but that isn’t something I would count on.

LapLap

Forecast 28th Feb 2019
First bloom Sendai 4th Apr
Tokyo 21st Mar
Nagoya 20th Mar
Osaka 25th Mar
Fukuoka 18th Mar

Not on map, but detailed predictions for:
Kyoto, first bloom 22nd Mar, full bloom 31st Mar
Tokyo, first bloom 21st Mar, full bloom 28th Mar

Source - https://s.n-kishou.co.jp/w/sp/sakura/sakura_top.html

Consistently warmer than average weather in Kyoto for the coming week, not quite as warm, but still above average for Tokyo. I’d say it was unlikely for the prediction to show later dates than now at next week’s Sakura forecast.

RichardInSF

If you get to Tokyo outside of the right time, don't forget the experimental forest park which is about a 30 minute walk from Takao (NOT Takao-san-guichi) station. It has tree species from all over Japan and usually there is something in full bloom for a week or two on both sides of the Tokyo peak.

armagebedar

Thanks LapLap. I fixed some of the dates in your post (you had the Tokyo first bloom as 21 April, not 21 March).

LapLap

Thank you! Even changing the month format to Mar and Apr I still can’t get it straight!

paperwastage

Sakura Navi app

$3. I'm assuming they will release a new version every year and charge

https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/?lang=en

iOS: https://itunes.apple.com/jp/app/id1447184953
Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/d....SakuraKaikaEn

LapLap

I’ve been following using this source rather than the maps, particularly over the past week or so.
Current bud growth rate for

Tokyo: 60%, flowering date 21st Mar & full bloom 28th Mar

Kyoto: 59%, flowering date 22nd Mar & full bloom 31st Mar

Last year I found this same source to be the most accurate. Even so, the Sakura came to full bloom and then withered earlier than was predicted at quite a few of the micro locations listed.
There are some long, long spells of very warm weather coming up, both in Tokyo and Kyoto. I’m personally expecting the forecast trend to edge towards earlier dates (further North than Sendai is a different story)

Sandeep1

If full bloom is Mar 31, what's the expected duration after that? 5-7 days?

LapLap

It depends on how “fast” the blossom progresses as well as the weather conditions after full bloom (wind and rain can strip petals from the trees but a cold spell can prolong the season)

Last year was a particularly early and “fast”year.
2018 - Tokyo
First bloom (first unfurling of the buds) came at about 18th March.
Full bloom was around the 26th March
By the end of the 31st March, despite no major wind or rain, most of the Sakura was gone.

The prediction at the moment is that the Sakura progression won’t be as “fast” or come as early as last year, but it will be “faster” and earlier than the average.

As a comparison, 2016 was the opposite. A cold front came at first bloom time and prolonged the season.
2016 - Tokyo
First bloom - around 24th March
Full bloom - 1st April (it was gorgeous for a few days before this)
Full bloom was over by about the 8th, but mostly because of strong wind and rain on the 9th & 10th April. Without the inclement weather it may have continued for a couple more days.

Sandeep1

Sounds like we can count on at least 5 days then post full bloom.

LapLap

More or less.
However, one can also expect the forecasts and predicted dates to be out by between 1 and 2, and even up to 5 days

https://n-kishou.com/corp/news/contents/news180330/
From what I could tell, accuracy of forecasts for last year was better with full bloom prediction than first blossom.

HawaiiO

Thank u for the updates!
really appreciate it!

ClausMikael

I love cherry blossoms. Hope I can bring my girlfriend here too.