LapLap

See post #18 (unfortunately, the link no longer shows the article that was being referred to)
Although many trees did bloom in November, they were only a tiny fraction of Japan’s Yoshino trees. If you look carefully, you may see here and there signs of trees that were affected. I personally doubt it will have a profound impact on the trees in Kyoto or any of the other tourist areas that have been mentioned as potential destinations in this thread. Other towns and villages towards the West (which were massively hit by torrential sea water carrying typhoons last year) may have had a more noticeable percentage of trees affected.
On the other hand, these events and the related consequences, do have an impact on the National psyque. They don’t ruin the Sakura season, just make it more poignant and meaningful. Because of the set back, the flowers that do make it become a manifestation of the “gambatte” spirit”, you may come across a nearly bare tree with a few blossoms on it being treasured and celebrated. Each region, each town, sometimes each tree, has its story of endurance and suffering. Sakura has always been a very bittersweet celebration even if it seems only joyous on the surface.

LapLap

7th February - latest forecast

Tokyo first bloom 23 Mar - full bloom 30 Mar

Kyoto first bloom 25 Mar - full bloom 2 Apr

https://sakura.weathermap.jp/en.php

As expected, first bloom date changed to earlier (one day). Dates may creep back with snow and very slightly colder temperatures than average forecast for the coming week.

LapLap

After rather a bit of snow and cold (which is forecast to continue until the 15th February) the weather is predicted to change quite drastically and gorgeous Spring weather between 12C and 16C (with night time lows of 5-7C) is expected.
My understanding is that the long range forecast is for more of the same kind of balmier than average February/early March weather.
Personally, I’m expecting the next Sakura forecasts to predict first and full blooms a couple of days earlier than is being shown right now. In other words, I’m anticipating the date to creep back and not forwards.

HawaiiO

Thanks for the updates!
This will be my first time in Japan during Cherry blossom period
Excited for it!

TA

Aside from Nara mentioned above, are there other suggestions for cities / parks where the crowds of people won't be as crushing as in Tokyo/Kyoto? Some place where you might feel a little more tranquil?

I'm guessing going north, and later in the season might be the trick, but I don't have firsthand knowledge... Thanks!

LapLap

Matsumoto has been a big favourite.

Aizu Wakamatsu should have been delightful, but the weather was miserable when I visited in full bloom and my kid was a lot younger and her shoes were hurting her feet. Shouldn't have, but it taints the recollection.

The most beautiful place for sakura I've been to was a place celebrated for the blossoms and views on the coast near Matsushima overlooking Matsushima bay. Only thing is was that we were driven there. There were coach groups, but it wasn't crowded. Not sure how difficult it is to get there with public transport. The place is Saigyo Modoshi no Matsu Park.

beep88

It depends on how far you want to go, whether you have a rail pass, etc. For instance I went to Matsumoto Castle and Zenkoji Nagano during full bloom and the places were virtually deserted.

Closer to Tokyo I went to Inokashira Park near Kichijoki Station, hardly anyone there.

Use a Japanese language cherry blossom site, such as this "Top 100 sakura spots in Tokyo" https://hanami.walkerplus.com/list/ar0313/ss0001/

LapLap

Showa Kinen Koen is near Tokyo. Wonderful sakura, people party there. Not crowded.
My favourite park in Tokyo, I go back every year.

LapLap

Current forecast for Tokyo on the 20th Feb - one week from now - is 20C (68F), settling to 14C (57F) for the rest of February. 14C is at least 4C (7/8F) higher than the average.

Meanwhile, up near Sendai, my husband’s cousin commented that he picked up the water bottle he’d left in his car overnight to have a swig and the contents had frozen solid.

allset2travel

Wherever you go during cherry blossom season, you will have crowds. Embrace it. One place that seldom gets mentioned is Himeji Castle. I like this castle and the trees here. Very easy access too since it is on the main line.

abmj-jr

As mentioned elsewhere, there will be crowds everywhere. Tranquil will probably not happen.

That said, I think I'd look for smaller towns. Most people looking for blossoms tend to be in the bigger cities. From Kyoto, I might head over to Hikone on Lake Biwa. It is about an hour from Kyoto Station on a local JR line so the Japan Rail Pass would work. I spent the better part of a day there and really enjoyed it. I also agree with the suggestion about Himeji. It always has crowds but the gardens around the castle are very nice.

From Tokyo, I also agree about heading north. I also suggest finding the places in Tokyo that will not attract hanami parties, like the Hama Rikyu Imperial Garden. We were there in the sakura season and it was spectacular. I suspect the partiers stay away because of the entrance fee. We found strollers, artists and photographers but no big blanket parties.

LapLap

And the 21st February update (next is due on the 28th Feb)

Personal interpretation: Weather in the past two weeks went from snow to a high of 19C last Wednesday. The effects of one week mostly counteracting the effects of the other. Next week the weather is due to be a couple of degrees warmer than average. My bias is looking at Tokyo and my take is really flawed as I don’t really understand the impact of the weather on “breaking dormancy” and embryonic bud growth.

Tokyo buds open 23 Mar full bloom 30 Mar
Kyoto Buds open 23 Mar Full bloom 1 Apr

The dates for Tokyo are the same as the last forecast, for Kyoto they have creeped a little earlier.

Previous 7th February update: Kyoto first bloom 25 Mar - full bloom 2 Apr

LapLap

Here’s a machine translation of the bulk of the information on the Japanese version of the 21st Feb update:
“This winter is a warm winter because the condition where cold air hardly flows near Japan continued. For this reason, breakdown of dormancy is slow and flower bud growth is seen to be slow.
In the first half of February, a strong chill flowed in, and the day when the temperature was low also increased, but after that the temperature is considerably high and the high temperature trend is expected to continue over the next three months. For this reason, Sakura's flowering is expected to be faster than normal, but it will not be a record quickness because the break-through of dormancy is slow due to the warm winter.”
https://sakura.weathermap.jp/smt/

The “Sakura's flowering is expected to be faster than normal” is an important part to remember. My understanding of this is that when trees are quick to bloom, it means those blooms don’t usually linger on the branches.
This is what happened last year. So back in 2018, in Tokyo, first bloom was on the 18/19 March. By the 23rd March the unusually “fast flowering” meant that most trees were approaching full bloom and the best time to see the Sakura was the 25th March until the 28/29th March. By the 30th March the season was over, only a carpet of blossom was left.
There is no expectation that the season will come as early this year, or progress and then end as quickly, but last year’s was exceptionally fast. Even so, the forecast did say it will likely be an early and “fast” year with relation to average.

LapLap

Alternative forecast here
https://www.japan-guide.com/sakura/

Prediction for from this source (21st February) is for
Tokyo - blossom opening on 20 Mar and best viewing time 27 Mar until 4 Apr
Kyoto - blossom opening on 23 Mar and best viewing time 30 Mar until 7 Apr

LapLap

And another
EDIT TO ADD - first bloom dates
https://sakura.weathermap.jp/en.php