LapLap

More cherry blossom, perhaps. But also more crowds.
Over the past couple of years I’ve been looking at reports in this forum by visitors who have really grumbled about the huge numbers of Hanami seeking visitors congregating at certain sights.

If you do get your predictions bang on you run the risk of being immersed in crowds for the entirety of your stay.

As they say, be careful what you wish for.

Whether you switch or not won’t change the fact that you will have the option on your dates to head out on day trips to lesser known Sakura destinations where you can share the experience with far less people.

SofiaSanz

The second forecast was released last Thursday. It seems that this year blooming dates are expected to arrive slightly later. But this infographic may give you an idea of what to expect. And of course, I recommend you to keep checking again for updates on the 2019 forecast in some of the major cities of Japan (such as Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto).

[redacted]

LapLap

2nd forecast of 2019 (dated 24th January) can be found in posts #58 , #67 & #77

Next one is due on the 7th February.

beep88

The "plan" is to spend several days at a certain hub (for example, Fukuoka, Hiroshima, Osaka/Kyoto, Tokyo, Sendai ), use rail / car (in certain cases) and have day trips to wherever the prime sakura spots are, using real-time sakura reports , possibly with a rail pass.

kapooncha

Yes that's obviously an option. But I don't want to be running all over Japan "chasing" the blossoms. For example, if I planned to be in Kyoto during a period, and the blossoms don't hit full bloom until after I've left Kyoto, that sucks. Especially if I'm then moving to Tokyo. That would mean I have to take a rail back to Kyoto to see the blossoms when I was just there. By the time the I would arrive, there would be hoards of people out and about.

I'm not sure obsession is the right word. If I'm going to be in Japan at the time of the cherry blossoms, then I want to see them. Hotels are charging high premiums for that time of the year so it really doesn't make sense to pay that if you're not going to enjoy the blossoms.

This is a valid point but, right now, what I'm worried is about the full bloom date for Kyoto creeping later and later. My previous plan was to leave Kyoto on the 7th and head to Disney for 3 nights, and then Tokyo. Now, according to the most recent forecast, APR 3 is the expected full bloom date. However, the weather is very, very cold right now so that date could continue to go later and later. If that were to eventually extend out to my dates in Disney, I'm kind of screwed. As I'm not going to leave Disney to go back to Kyoto.

So what I'm thinking now is to move my Tokyo dates back to late March/very early April, then do Kyoto, then finish trip in Disney (Apr 12-15).

freecia

There's a reason why people call it chasing cherry blossoms. I'm a planner and usually my plans for seeing hanami are like beep88's. Plan for more work on the ground upon arrival and go where the blossoms are if they are important to you. It helps to search for that location tag in instagram close to the day of travel, too.

freecia

Reminds me of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWuRUBKMnDM

Kyoto is gorgeous but crowded. Hanami is gorgeous but often crowded in cities. Both combined... I'll be over there in Inashi or Tochigi.

The 2018 Cherry Blossom thread has some live hanami app recommendations. I use https://hanami.walkerplus.com/ for planning, too.

abmj-jr

Frankly, when in Kyoto during the blossom season, I have found Nara to be as nice with far fewer people. Of course, everything is relative. Nara draws crowd too. Just not as much as Kyoto.

kapooncha

I will certainly be visiting Nara, at least 1 day. I'm also someone who visited Disney World annually with family. So crowds are relative.

That being said, I may keep my schedule as is. But I'm definitely afraid of the Kyoto full bloom date creeping later and later into my Disney days. That would really suck.

LapLap

You HAVE kept your visit to Tokyo Disney to the end of your visit, thus avoiding going during March or the very beginning of April. So long as you avoid April 7th (Sunday) you’ll be avoiding crowds there too.

Good luck in Harajuku and Akihabara whilst the kids are on holiday. They’ll be out in force and it will have nothing to do with blossoms.

kapooncha

Haha, maybe I'll keep my Tokyo visit to the end then, and keep my Disney days from Apr 8-10 which according to the Disney crowd calendar, are excellent days to visit.

LapLap

I think it is worth pointing out before the next forecast (on the 7th February) that there are a couple of days of very unseasonable warm weather coming up.
Tomorrow, 4th Feb, the day time temperature in Tokyo is forecast to reach 18C (65F)
EDIT - Apparently, temperatures reached 18C on the 28th Jan also
On the 7th Feb, it is forecast to get to 16C.
The average temperature for February is 6C (43F)
Snow is forecast for the 9th and 10th February.

What this MIGHT translate to is a shift towards slightly earlier first bloom dates this coming forecast and then another shift towards a later first bloom prediction in the forecast that is released two weeks later.

HawaiiO

Read that last Nov, there were unseasonal blooms of Cherry blossom and so this spring those trees wouldnt bloom again?
So there might be less cherry blossoms this year?

kapooncha

Good info, thanks.

kapooncha

That might mean that visitors need to pay attention to location reports more than ever before.