AlwaysAisle

On March 26 Hokkaido Shinkansen was inaugurated between Shin-Aomori and Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto. Hokkaido has finally got Shinkansen and now Tokyo and Hakodate takes 4 hrs. by fastest Shinkansen. Media has reported that very first train on March 26 Hayabusa No. 1 departing Tokyo on 6:32 a.m. and Hayabusa No. 10 departing Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto on 6:35 a.m. were all sold out in less than 30 seconds when ticket went sales a month in advance.

JR Hokkaido has released number of initial ridership of Shin-Aomori and Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto portion of Shinkansen. Inaugural day of March 26 was 14,200 passengers with 61% load factor. Second day of operation on March 27 was 8,700 passengers with 37% load factor. First 9 days of Shinkansen reservations is predicting the load factor to be 24%

This is no surprise to JR Hokkaido which is estimating average load factor 26% for first one year of operation between Shin-Aomori and Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto. When regular trains were running on Tsugaru Channel tunnel there were more demand for freight trains than passenger trains. Before the channel tunnel, JR operated ferry between Aomori station and Hakodate station and even back then there were more freight ferry which carried freight trains only than passenger/freight ferry.

Also, JR’s formula is a train can win over airplane if a journey is less than 3 hours. With 4 hours journey by fastest Shinkansen between Tokyo and Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto, it is predicted that majority of passengers will stull fly between Tokyo and Hokkaido.

JR Hokkaido is estimating that Shin-Aomori and Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto will be annual loss of 480,000 yen. At this moment extension of Shinkansen to Sapporo is scheduled for year 2030.

shuigao

Annual loss of barely more than us$4k seems remarkably (and surprisingly) low.

Can't comment on ridership for locals, but for visitors/tourists given that Sapporo is a more popular (and more central) Hokkaido 'base camp,' the train still takes too long from Tokyo to make it the default transport choice.

AlwaysAisle

Sorry, it was my typo. JR Hokkaido is estimating annual loss of 4,800,000,000 yen (US$ 42.5 million) for Shin-Aomori and Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto portion of Shinkansen. Japan National Railway broke up and become private entity JRs in 1987, but Japanese government still owns 100% stock of JR Hokkaido. Likely good amount of tax payer money will be used to manage the loss.

Jyouetsu (roma-ji spelling) Shinkansen which runs to Niigata is nicknamed “Political Shinkansen.” Back in early ‘70s when JR was a government entity and construction and budget of Jyouetsu Shinkansen was approved by the government. Prime minister at that time (Kakuei Tanaka) was native of Niigata.

Some say Hokkaido Shinkansen was political also. Once Hokkaido Shinkansen extends to Sapporo in 2030, there is intra-Hokkaido business and leisure demand between Sapporo and Hakodate where Hokkaido Shinkansen can make some money, enough to be in black? When it comes to Hokkaido’s biggest demand then it is between Sapporo and Tokyo, obvious from number of 777s fly between Haneda and Chitose every day. (Used to be 747 haven. ) But because of the distance between Tokyo and Sapporo even JR knows that Shinkansen will not win over Tokyo-Sapporo.

Although Jyouetsu Shinkansen was political, because of the distance between Tokyo and Niigata Shinkansen could easily win over airplane. Before Shinkansen, there were express trains running between Ueno (Tokyo) and Niigata every hour so there was demand.

closetasfan

In the big scheme of things, even 42 million annually is peanuts. I think the Hokkaido Shinkansen won't get much traction until the Sapporo section opens. Its basically ignoring Hakodate anyways, about 20 miles away from the city, and only opened to say they're in Hokkaido. Once they do open in Sapporo, I think it will make a dent. But that's not for another 15 years.

joejones

Tokyo-Sapporo shinkansen service should make a pretty good dent once it gets going. Lots of people take the shinkansen between Tokyo and Kyushu, even though flying is generally faster and cheaper for that distance.

Wasn't there discussion at some point about doing an "auto train" through the Seikan Tunnel? A Shinkansen that took cars to and from Hokkaido could be really popular during the holiday season.

AlwaysAisle

There are already 16 daily round trip ferry service between Aomori and Hakodate by two ferry companies carrying cars and trucks where journey takes 3 hr. 40 min. Also, there is ferry service between Hakodate and Oma, Aomori where Oma is located at northern tip of Shimokita Peninsula and the journey is 1 hr. and 30 minutes.

Beside that there are 12 weekly ferry trips between Ooarai, Ibaraki and Tomakomai, Hokkaido which is serving truck/car demand between Greater Tokyo area and Hokkaido. There used to be a ferry service from Tokyo Ferry Terminal which is near Odaiba to Tomakomai but the service terminated more than few years ago. Also there are ferry services from Hachinohe, Aomori and Sendai to Tomakomai.

Over at Sea of Japan side, it is not daily service, but service from Akita, Niigata, Tsugaru (Fukui), and Maizuri (Kyoto) to Tomakomai. Yes, Kyoto is not just the city of Kyoto with temples. Kyoto extends all the way to Sea of Japan.

Anyway, there are already several established ferry services carrying cars and trucks between Honshu and Hokkaido. If JR wants to tap into that market by doing auto train between Aomori and Hakodate, then how much demand JR can capture away from existing ferry services?

Also there is JR inside logistic issues. Seikan Tunnel belongs to JR Hokkaido, not JR East, hence newly opened Hokkaido Shinkansen belongs to JR Hokkaido. Then there is separate JR Freight division which operates freight trains all over Japan. JR Hokkaido and JR East operate passenger trains only. There used to be sleeper train with dining car running between Ueno (Tokyo) and Sapporo (Hokutosei and Cassiopeia) and Osaka and Sapporo (Twilight Express) where all these sleeper trains terminated operation before inauguration of Hokkaido Shinkansen.

Seikan Tunnel was re-fitted for dual Shinkansen and regular train for service inauguration of Hokkaido Shinkansen. Now Seikan Tunnel has new electric and other train specifications for trains running through the tunnel. JR Freight has ordered new electric engines dedicated for Seikan Tunnel to pull freight cars. If JR wanted to continue sleeper train service between Honshu and Hokkaido then JR Hokkaido had to order brand new electric engine dedicated to Seikan Tunnel only to pull two or three sleeper trains passing through the tunnel. It did not make JR Hokkaido financial sense to do that, when JR Hokkaido knew that new Hokkaido Shinkansen will be bleeding US$42.5 million annually in red.

Then Auto Train will be combination of freight and passenger cars. There are big logistics problems need to be worked out between JR Freight and JR Hokkaido. Also need to make new stations to load and unload cars and who will build that, JR Freight or JR Hokkaido? With Hokkaido Shinkansen bleeding red big time, can JR Freight and JR Hokkaido establish fares for Auto Train which is competitive with existing ferry service?

There is Auto Train example at English Channel tunnel and I am sure JR has studied that example. But with specific situation of Hokkaido and Honshu car transport demand, I think JR Hokkaido has decided that it is not what they want to do at this moment.

Alright, a lot of train geek talk.

P.S.
Found the number for Tokyo-Fukuoka. Shinkansen takes about 8-9% passenger traffic between Tokyo-Fukuoka, where airplane takes 91-92% of passenger traffic between Tokyo-Fukuoka. Shinkansen is winning on Tokyo-Osaka, Tokyo-Okayama, Tokyo-Hiroshima, and Osaka-Fukuoka.

However, passenger demand between Sapporo/Hakodate-Morioka/Sendai is so low compare with above city pairs that JR Hokkaido is not in same situation as JR West and JR Kyushu when it comes to Shinkansen.

jpatokal

I'm generally a Shinkansen fan, but the Hokkaido Shinkansen is a bit sad. The cost is ridiculous and I doubt it's going to pay off even if/when they open it up all the way to Sapporo.

We're going to Hokkaido this summer, and I was trying hard to figure out a way to get the Hokkaido Shinkansen into the mix, but nope, it just makes no sense in terms of time or money. JAL's Yokoso Japan fares from Tokyo to anywhere in Hokkaido are Y10,800 a pop, or you can get Tokyo-Sapporo for ~Y5000 on Peach, Vanilla etc, flight time 1:30. The Hokkaido Shinkansen to Hakodate takes 4 hours and costs Y22,690, or almost 8 hours (!) and Y30,000 (!!) if you chug onward to Sapporo with current connections.

And it's hard to justify a rail pass either, since Hokkaido has the crappiest train network in Japan and you need your own wheels for most of the interesting bits. Even comparing against the JR Hokkaido/East pass at Y26,000 for 6 days, it's cheaper to fly JAL return (Y21600), and with a family of four the difference is enough to pay for the rental car for a good 3-4 days...!

AlwaysAisle

Another of my favorite is Visit TOHOKU Fare by JAL. Although I am self-claimed train geek, cannot beat 5400 yen per segment!

Add little more miles into AAdvantage account by flying JAL. Buying Class-J seat for 1000 yen and bonus miles into my AAdvantage account. As OneWorld Sapphire boarding JAL flight, the gate machine will make different “Bing” and a gate agent will walk over and bow to me thanking for being a royal customer. Got the impression that flight attendants on JAL go through passenger manifest and try to remember seat number of elite frequent flyers. I being asked how I liked new JAL Sky Time flavor compare with previous flavors.

jpdx

AlwaysAisle and jpatokal, this is a really interesting thread, thanks! Taking into account Hokkaido's (and indeed, Japan's) demographic future, it's hard to see this new route as anything other than a “Political Shinkansen.”

I like Hakodate, and am excited to take the new Shinkansen up there; even though of course jpatokal is right that buying a rail pass just for a Hokkaido trip doesn't make much sense. In my case, I will visit at the tail end of a 14-day trip that gets excellent use out of my rail pass before heading up north.

joejones

I once took the ferry from Oma to Hakodate and then the train back to Tokyo (limited express to Aomori, changing to Shinkansen). The ferry was much more enjoyable, FWIW.

jpatokal

I looked into this as well, but it's ~Y8000 from Aomori to Hakodate with the new Shinkansen, meaning it still costs more than a direct flight, plus the hassle & expense of getting from the airport to Shin-Aomori. I might still do this if traveling solo, but with two young kids in tow it's a non-starter.

markle

Has anyone travelled on the Hokkaido shinkansen since it opened?

I am planning a journey up to Sapporo on it on a Friday in September. I was planning on booking seats when I arrived in Japan (~3 days before the journey), but a look on Eki-Net suggests very poor availability on Friday mornings, even up to a month in advance.

Does availability free up at all, or is it really that tough to get a seat?

AlwaysAisle

JR starts ticket sales one month prior of travel. On Eki Net seat availability will be visible form 5 week prior to travel. When is your travel date in September? It is possible that you are still too far in advance.

Shin Aomori – Shin Hakodate Hokuto portion (which is Hokkaido Shinkansen) should be no problem finding availability, it is averaging less than 30% occupancy. It is usually ride up to Shin Aomori (which is Tohoku Shinkansen) can be busy.

Even before Shinkansen, regular express train running between Hachinohe – Hakodate had decent occupancy till Aomori. At Aomori often more than half of passengers got off and Aomori – Hakodate portion was less busy.

markle

Thanks. We're looking to travel from Tokyo on September 9 - I was looking at availability in July / August to get a sense of how difficult it may be to get a seat. It seems that in general the morning trains on Fridays (and to a lesser extent, Thursdays) get booked up in advance.

JR East provides an advance reservation facility for JR passholders (but only as far as Shin-Aomori). I guess as a contingency, I could use this to just book Tokyo - Shin Aomori seats when they become available.

AlwaysAisle

August is peak summer vacation season and it will be difficult to get seats on trains. Especially during Obon period in August, which is 3rd week of August this year, trains do sell out and be difficult to get seats on trains.

During September should be easier to get seats on JR trains.