Wife is afraid of earthquakes
 

Hi there, in the last years my wife and me were lucky to travel a lot and get to know a lot of places. Even though every place has its own charms, Asia has been the continent that we enjoyed the most.

We wanted to visit Tokyo and other parts of Japan this year, probably around September, but with the recent earthquakes in Haiti and Chile, and knowing that Japan is a known seismic area, she is now afraid and doesn't want to go anymore. I'm not so afraid and I would still go, but I have my concerns.

So what arguments can I use to convince her to change her mind?
I know that since there are minor earthquakes almost every day, I guess all buildings are earthquake-proof. In the case of an 8-something level earthquake like the one in Chile hits in or near Tokyo, what's the probable outcome? Hundreds of buildings and roads destroyed, or only minor issues? What about other parts of the country?

Thanks for any advice.

PS: Godzilla is not likely to attack Tokyo anytime soon, is he? :D

I occasionally run into posts similar to this in other web forums.

I usually would say is:
You have a better chance of getting hit and killed in a motor vehicle accident on your way to the airport then die in a earthquake in Japan.

Just because there has been major earthquakes recently in other countries is no indicator that one will happen in Japan (or Los Angeles or any other location for that matter), there's no real way to predict when an earthquake will happen. One can happen right as I post this message, or one major one can happen 100years from now.

Earthquake devastation would depend on many many factors. For example, how deep was it, where was the epicenter etc etc.
From what I understand, Japan experiences around 400 earthquakes everyday most of them virtually undetectable without the use of special sensors. I felt one last week, then went back to sleep.

I'm not sure what I can say to convince someone, but, one can lock themselves inside their home for their entire lives worrying about something or go out and enjoy life. A little of the same argument I told people about the swine flu hoopla that everyone was going bonkers about. We all lived through it.

I'm not sure there is an argument.

Earthquakes that would flatten cities and towns in other parts of the world happen with unnerving regularity in Japan with minimal effects. But that doesn't take away the widely believed theory that there is a super earthquake long due for Tokyo.

It all depends on where the epicentre is, the type of movement as well as that Richter Scale number. Every earthquake is different.

So, yes, Tokyo is a pretty good place to be if you want to survive an earthquake measuring 5, or even 6, on the Richter Scale with an epicentre that isn't just beneath you. Which is just as well, as these earthquakes happen quite frequently.

And no, Tokyo will be a terrible place to be if/when a repeat of the 1854 Tokai Earthquake happens. My husband (a former Tokyo resident) thinks it will be worse than Kobe. He grew up with tales from his grandmother who witnessed dancing houses during the 1923 Great Kanto quake.
But this predicted disaster may seem like a minor inconvenience if it triggers off, or is followed by another looming terror - Mount Fuji is believed to be ripe for an eruption, and it could be a big one. Godzilla might be a blessing in comparison.

I've got nothing for you to convince your wife with, just as I'd have nothing to convince someone from a small undeveloped island that they would be safe in a Western metropolis anywhere near motorised vehicles.

i am very scared of earthquakes too. but for some reason, whenever i am in Tokyo, or any other parts of Japan, I forget about it. I have been there 5 times, and spent over 3 months there and got one minor earthquake, i was in my concrete ryokan on the 3rd floor and the room shook. It was, by Japanese standard very mild one - just 3 on the scale. It lasted maybe 10 seconds, and I almost .... in my pants.
When I told my Japanese friend later, she didnt even
know it happened

I was in a maid cafe in Akihabara when the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake and aftershocks hit. The location helped to calm my nerves.

Irrational fear is that which overreacts to low probability events and underreacts to high probability events.

Logically there is very low probability of a major earthquake while you'll be in Tokyo, roughly the same probability that Central London will have catastrophic flooding during the same time.

Tokyo will have a major earthquake.
London will have catastrophic flooding.
Both are 100% probable, but have almost immeasurably small probability of happening during a given month.
Driving on the M25 exposes you to far greater probability of injury or death than anything you'll face in either place from a natural disaster.

The above is true, but being true has no affect whatsoever on irrational fear.

The fear of flying is another case in point.

I always try to attack these fears with logic, but of course logic does not usually help. :(

We have a modern marvel of engineering called the Thames Barrier that makes this a poor comparison. Substitute 'London' for 'Canvey Island' and it still doesn't convince
(in the 1953 floods around 300 people died, over 50 were from Canvey Island. Nobody is forecasting deaths on a similar scale next time we experience floods of a similar magnitude - not unless some dredger accident puts the Thames Barrier out of service SOURCE)
The Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995 claimed nearly 6 and a half thousand lives, most of them in Kobe. If there was a Thames Barrier type device that could keep earthquakes at bay, it would have been built.

Thing is, it doesn't really matter what the size of the earthquake is - if you're unlucky enough to be close enough to the epicenter and unlucky enough to be near the wrong sort of building made of the wrong sort of material you're going to be in a world of trouble.

For some reason, Spain never seems to register as an earthquake prone destination with visiting Brits, but we've had two rather large ones in the last decade (over 6 on the Richter Scale - there have been plenty of smaller tremors) and there's a super earthquake expected imminently - a re-occurrence of the 1884 earthquake which killed over 800 people, injured 1,400 and destroyed or damaged around 20,000 buildings in what was the relatively sparsely populated region of Granada, Andalucia.

Lovecraft, does your wife have concerns about visiting Spain or Italy? The Mediterranean is a real hot spot for major earthquakes. As well as the many thousands who died in the 1999 Izmit earthquakes which also devastated part of Istanbul, there have been deadly tremors in Italy, Morocco and Algiers since then.

If she'd be happy to go to Turkey for a holiday, she should have no problems with Japan.

Thanks everyone for your responses.
I forgot to mention she's got a bit of a traumatic experience in 1998 in Mexico during an earthquake (though a small one), when she had to evacuate her hotel and spend the rest of the night at the beach.

But you're right, we've been to Spain many times, as a matter of fact we're going to Malaga in Andalucia next month, without any concern and not even thinking about earthquakes.

The beach? Isn't that the last place you should go?

I should mention that the probability that she might relive her trauma in Japan isn't a very low one.
On two of my visits I've experienced quakes strong enough to feel as if there is a train passing nearby, one of those times was when my parents were spending their first day in Japan and we were under an enormous chandelier, the other time (my first 'biggie') I actually thought it was a nearby train as I'd been fast asleep, however, MrLapLap's heart was thumping violently enough to alert me so I realised what was going on during the aftershock.
Any of these tremors could have been more severe than the earthquake in Mexico, but very little damage occurred so these weren't newsworthy events.

Unfortunately, once you've experienced a major tremor, you never forget it. Your wife will probably recognise one if she feels it. If the experience of an earthquake by itself is what your wife dreads, then do discuss it. Although it's highly likely that you would survive an earthquake, unfortunately, it's also quite likely that you'll sense one.

Alas, the more you know about earthquakes, the more hopeless you might feel about them.
The three greatest fears for a Japanese (male) are (or were until not so long ago):
Jishin, kaji, oyaji
(Earthquake, fire, father)
The first two are definitely still contenders

I would tell her this:

Earthquakes can happen anywhere. The largest recorded earthquake in the U.S. was in St. Louis in the 19th century. There is also a large earthquake fault lying directly under Manhattan.

If you're going to be in an earthquake (and you can be in one anywhere), the BEST place to be is Tokyo, San Francisco or Los Angeles. The reason for this is that there are very stringent construction codes in place in those cities (and others, of course) that specifically anticipate strong earthquakes. Compare the earthquakes in Chile and Haiti -- The Chile earthquake was an order of magnitude stronger than in Haiti. However, in Chili the damage was minimal specifically because the country has earthquake codes in place. These construction codes work.

If you've traveled to other parts of Asia, then you have no reason to fear Japan. I'm not saying that a major earthquake won't happen. Of course it could, but in recent years there have been major, really major earthquakes in

China
Taiwan
Indonesia
the Indian Ocean quake that caused the notorious S.E.Asian tsunami
Pakistan

and I may have missed a few.

Is your wife afraid to go to those places?

Tokyo buildings have gotten larger since Godzilla's last attack. Japanese people have also grown considerably taller in that time. These days, the mighty Godzirra-san would be viewed as just another foreigner or advertising ploy.

http://i714.photobucket.com/albums/w...e/godzirra.jpg

I can truly understand your wife's feeling about earthquakes especially if she experienced one in a different country.

My wife is a Kobe earthquake survivor. Her house was demolished in the earthquake, she saw the aftermath, watched neighbors get pulled from demolished buildings. Her reaction to earthquakes are different than mine.

When we were living in Taiwan, we experienced many many many small earthquakes, I thought it was a cool experience but my wife reaction was immediate to try to mitiage the possible dangers. IE - immediately stop and get off elevators, she looks above to see if anything can/may fall. Moves to the safest area in a building etc.

At PT Travel mentioned, my wife says Japan has really improved their earthquake preparation and building code so it is one of the places she truly feels it is the safest if there was an earthquake.

There's earthquake prone and there's earthquake prone. There are many regions of the world that one doesn't think that much as being subject to earthquakes, but they certainly are. This includes most of the "ring of fire" countries: Chile, Peru, Mexico, Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, China, etc.

Of all of those, my experience is that Japan is particularly prone to them. I feel earthquakes in Japan every 2-3 days, especially when I am lying down, I guess I am very sensitive. On the other hand, Mrs. Pickles is generally oblivious. She didn't even register the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake and the aftershocks, which killed 60 people or so. She did feel the 2009 Shizuoka biggie that was 10 times stronger, but paradoxically (as LapLap mentions) killed only one person. Location, depth, and other factors make a huge difference.

So you take yer chances. Could the big mongo one happen on her watch? Yes, certainly, probability is likely very small but non-zero, but if you're in it, the conditional probability for you has just shot to 100%. But this can be said of many other places in the world. And if I'm going to have to live through a major earthquake, Japan is probably as good a place as any.

We live in another earthquake prone area and there are small ones and large ones almost everyday. Here is what is reported by the USGS agency:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak.../10/240_35.php