JALPak

rustykettel

Ok. SEA, DFW or ORD (with the other switched by AA), and new service to MIA or PHX.

Total lark: I think RDU has potential given the growing Japanese ties there but lacks the feed that CLT would have, which makes both weaker as candidates.

joejones

My assumption is that these slots are only used for competitive advantage, so four on each side would probably be used for the routes with the toughest competition between the JVs:

4x JL = LAX, ORD, SEA, HNL
4x NH = SFO, LAX, SEA, HNL

After that it's anyone's guess. I think fortress routes like DFW-NRT and IAD-NRT (only served by one of the JVs) would stay at NRT unless the other JV tries to start them out of HND, which seems like a distinct possibility.

JAL might try to move multiple HNL flights to HND as a means of competing with the ANA A380 service.

A new JAL route to MIA or PHX would most likely be out of NRT since they wouldn't be competing with anyone who runs it nonstop out of HND.

Beltway2A

I'd love for JL to start flying NRT-IAD as well. I know it's a UA hub so NH gets significantly more benefit than JL ever would, but hey, I'm selfish. CX did just add a route to the airport as well.

joejones

I would love to see JAL do HND-IAD with a 788 just to put an ax in the ridiculous fares that NH/UA charge in this market, and pressure UA to upgrade its premium product (they are still using 2-4-2 C class on this route). There's probably a business case for it: JAL used to have a sales office in DC years ago, and there is a massive Japanese community in the area between the embassy, the universities, the various corporate offices and NIH. All that said, I think the odds of it happening are slim.

Another issue, suggested by JALPak in his first post above, is whether ANA and JAL get equal numbers of slots. I recall that someone in an official capacity previously suggested that the imbalance caused by JAL's bankruptcy has been fully corrected by the existing lopsided slot awards to ANA at HND, but that doesn't mean the government will stop shafting JAL. ANA could get enough slots to move all of its US routes over to HND (using their new international facilities at HND T2) while JAL only gets enough to move a handful of premium ones.

Seems almost certain that AA will request and get DFW-HND, so the JV will at least have that route.

CPH-Flyer

I note that Delta has already been whining about the proceedings. I guess we could see more blockage from them, like they did before.

Unless ANA's international facilities takes the main part of the NH flights over there, the international terminal in Haneda is well on the way to become unattractive due to over crowding. The facilities does not keep up with passenger growth.

JALPak

JALPak

Not just that, international connection options are rather limited for JL at HND. Hopefully next round of allocation will fix that. But then what's left for NRT then? I can't imagine JL adding more regional flights at HND and maintain the current frequency at NRT. They don't have enough planes or demand.

CPH-Flyer

​​​​​​Apparently the US military has agreed to open airspace to Haneda operations, meaning up to another 60,000 flights a year becomes possible in Haneda I could imagine the slots we are talking about here is part of the deal. So a lot of traffic could be moved to Haneda It would probably leave LCCs and airlines with no Haneda slots in Narita.

JALPak

Then partner airlines will get no connection options at NRT LOL E.g. AA and HA may not be able to move all flights to HND. For O/D traffic and Japan domestic connections, people already prefer HND over NRT. No idea who will fly into NRT when there's little to no connection options.

Airlines with no Haneda slots? That's JAL

CPH-Flyer

Not entirely true that it is JAL.... I distinctly recall flying from Haneda on JAL on an international flight...

I was more thinking Swiss, Austrian, Sri Lanka Air India, and quite a few more that has been left out in the cold so far.

JALOO5-Flyer

The ANA International facility looks rather small I really doubt they can even move all their peak Long-Haul operations there (ORD JFK at 10:20, LHR CDG FRA at 11:30 ish, not to mention potential new long-haul slots). Maybe they can just cater European flights at a remote station and tow these aircrafts to gate after the US flights depart, but that means at least 4 777 + a 787 of passengers will cramp in T2's small international area.

JALPak

rustykettel

I was wondering that too. Reading through Wikipedia, the current 60,000 daytime annual slots (~164 daily, so ~82 city pairs?) are international only and the domestic allocations are separate. There's also another 30,000 annual slots currently for nighttime international flights.

ETA: Found an interesting document on HND and NRT current slots, expansion plans, and proposed flight route changes. 357,000 annual slots at HND for domestic flights currently.

http://www.schedule-coordination.jp/...an_airport.pdf

60M tourists by 2030!

joejones

Yeah there is a separate domestic allocation going on in parallel.