JAL heads towards bankruptcy protection?

Old Jan 4, 2010, 3:09 pm
  #31  
 
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Originally Posted by maeharasmuse
my misgivings about JAL and about the Japanese airline industry date back a lot further!!!

Especially the situation
- in NRT (with the farms on and around the runway, and with the relatively difficult access to the airport),
- in HND with its ludicrous O/D restrictions, and
- at KIX (completely mismanaged)
annoy me big time!!!

Japan's airline/airport industry is really archaic, and doesn't fit the highly developed nation/market that Japan really is.
I hear you. One of the biggest problems in Japanese commercial aviation is the really inconvenient nature of many if not most domestic to international connections (and vice versa) in Japan. A lot of that stems from the concentration of international flights at NRT (with few domestic connector flights), and having to connect from HND (terribly time consuming). At the same time, there are not nearly enough international flights serving other Japanese cities (KIX IMO is terribly underserved).

It's no wonder that many passengers originating in western Japanese cities such as Hiroshima and Fukuoka find it a heck of a lot more convenient to connect to ICN, TPE and HKG for onward destinations in Asia, Europe and elsewhere.
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Old Jan 5, 2010, 1:26 am
  #32  
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No money until more than 2/3 of OB give back 1/3 of their pensions!

[東京 5日 ロイター] 前原誠司国土交通相は5日午前の閣議後会見で、JAL<9205.T>の再建策 に関し、一部で報道されている法的整理や私的整理などの選択がまずあるということではなく、飛行機の運航が 継続されることを可能にする再生策をサポートしていく方針であるとの見解を示した。
  JALへの支援を検討している企業再生支援機構は、裁判所が介在する法的整理を前提とした再建策を検討 している一方、主力金融機関は、金融支援額が膨らむ可能性のある法的整理よりも、関係者間で債権債務を調整 する私的整理による再建を主張しているが、国交相としては再建手法については静観の構えを示し た。
  JAL再建の公的支援の前提とされる年金の減額計画について、JALが4日、減額に必要な3分の2以上 の同意を現役社員から取得した一方でOBからは現時点で3分の1の同意しか得られていないと公表したことに 対して、「再生計画にはOBの努力が反映されるべき」と述べ、年金減額への同意を強く求めた。
  今後の再建計画に絡み、全日本空輸<9202.T>がJALの国際線部門取得を財務副大臣らに打診した との一部報道については「国土交通省としては聞いていない。全日空が国際線統合に本気ならば国交省に話をす るべき。財務副大臣に話すのは筋違い」と批判した。
(ロイターニュース 竹本 能文)

The last part with regards to their rival NH is most interesting.....
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Old Jan 5, 2010, 2:54 am
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JAL has agreed to new pension concessions with its current staff, reports the BBC (among others).

Getting concessions from retirees is an entirely different (and bigger) question. Thus far JAL's retirees have been extremely resistant to cutting their own pensions, and I can certainly understand their anger. JAL negligently or perhaps willfully mismanaged the company's pension funds.
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Old Jan 5, 2010, 3:47 am
  #34  
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Originally Posted by sipples
JAL has agreed to new pension concessions with its current staff, reports the BBC (among others).

Getting concessions from retirees is an entirely different (and bigger) question. Thus far JAL's retirees have been extremely resistant to cutting their own pensions, and I can certainly understand their anger. JAL negligently or perhaps willfully mismanaged the company's pension funds.
The sticking point is the OB pensioners and them giving back at least 30% of their pensions!
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Old Jan 5, 2010, 5:20 am
  #35  
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Originally Posted by maeharasmuse
Well done JALPak. At least someone is paying attention!!

I am sorry for all those shareholders, like yourself, that must have lost a load of money lately

...

Maybe you have failed to notice, but the airline industry all around Asia has really changed a lot in the last 10-15 years, but not so in Japan, where there has been nothing more than an enormous standstill (e.g. JAS disappearing, JL/NH not ordering the A380, no real LCCs, no expansion at NRT, etc).

...
PPS. The one thing I really like at NRT, are the rampers waiving goodbye as the plane starts taxiing... it's a nice gesture!!!
I am not a shareholder of JAL or any airlines for that matter.

Why would JAL and ANA want to order A380? They are trying to rid of the large size planes.

The waiving goodbye is a JAL tradition. They even do that at airports like HKG, LAX, etc
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 12:30 am
  #36  
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New proposal from three main creditors

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jap...ort-2010-01-07

ETIC and DBJ are supporting bankruptcy filing but JAL and the other three major creditors are opposing it. According to Nikkei.com, the three mega banks have submitted a new proposal which involves debt forgiveness (>300 billion yen) and dilution of shares. If this get rejected by shareholders, they will call for bankruptcy filing.
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 8:52 am
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Debt forgiveness? I'm surprised it didn't come up earlier, though I could see how to people it would look too much like a bailout if it came from the government. But dilution of shares?

On a tangential note- Whose bright idea was it to put Tokyo's big int'l airport in the middle of a bunch of farms? I think FSZ should have been about NRT's size and handle all the int'l flights, and a Shinkansen station underneath (the rails run right under it, after all; I'm really surprised no one thought of this earlier). The second runway issue could have been avoided because there would be no farms in the way.
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 9:30 am
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And American Airline just added another 30billion yen as their bet

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20...000188-jij-int
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 10:32 am
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Originally Posted by jamar
On a tangential note- Whose bright idea was it to put Tokyo's big int'l airport in the middle of a bunch of farms? I think FSZ should have been about NRT's size and handle all the int'l flights, and a Shinkansen station underneath (the rails run right under it, after all; I'm really surprised no one thought of this earlier). The second runway issue could have been avoided because there would be no farms in the way.
The emperor donated the land as it takes a lot of land to build a giant airport (*1).

The nearby farmers suffer from massive NIMBY towards it which have stopped them from getting a real shinkansen stop there (though the Narita express is only marginally slower) and is what is slowing the second runway.


*1 - incidentally, this is why they have security checks as ultra-nationalists don't believe the emperor actually did so and want to destroy the airport and restore the land to its "rightful owner."
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 3:23 pm
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Originally Posted by maeharasmuse
Japan's airline/airport industry is really archaic, and doesn't fit the highly developed nation/market that Japan really is.
Well, I will take the Japanese air transport system over the US or European one any day of the week.

Compared to the US, for instance, flying in Japan is pure heaven. The airports are clean and attractive, airport personnel are polite and professional, the security is reasonable and tolerable, flights are on time, airplanes are clean, airline employees are courteous, lounges are (for the most part) clean and attractive, and the overall service level is light years above that of the US.

I also find the fares to be completely reasonable. I can fly first class (real first class -- not the pathetic excuse for first class in the US) from Tokyo to Osaka on a 777 for maybe $250. In the US, a one-way coach ticket from ORD to Peoria on a regional jet cost me $780.

And the only problem I've ever had with NRT is the location. Otherwise, it beats the hell out of any major US international gateway, and the on-time performance blows away airports like ORD, JFK, LHR, etc. etc.
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 7:04 pm
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Unimatrix One
Well, I will take the Japanese air transport system over the US or European one any day of the week.
Oh yeah sure, and I will take my private jet any time over a JAL 777...

What's your point? That's not what ordinary citizens and businesses are looking for in the 2010's, and it's not what they really wanted in the 2000's or even during the '90's. The thrills, not the frills... Remember??

I have quite a few Japanese friends who have flown all accross Europe, flying on airlines such as Ryanair, at fares as low as 0.01 EUR. We can discuss your personal opinions and preferences in regard of LCCs, but clearly that's where the market is going, even in Japan - for obvious reasons.

Have you been to airports like HKG, PVG, PEK or ICN?? You would be amazed about the infrastructure they have in place there, and about the investment that is going on all over the place. Of course, a thing or two could be said about the people that are crowding those places, but still... they are catching up, and they're getting there... at least elsewhere in N-E Asia something is changing (for the better).

And no, US airports and US airlines have long stopped being a benchmark in international air services, which was exactly the point I was trying to make.

Originally Posted by virmaior
The nearby farmers suffer from massive NIMBY towards it which have stopped them from getting a real shinkansen stop there (though the Narita express is only marginally slower) and is what is slowing the second runway.
Have a look here:

http://www.airliners.net/photo/0874120/L/

http://www.airliners.net/photo/0778028/L/

Check out those farms that are all over the place, occupying the runway(s) and pushing the taxiways back towards the runways (making simultaneous runway use impossible).

Seriously, with all respect for the rule of law, but which self respecting developed nation can expect to remain unpunished for putting on such an inefficient/ineffective/chaotic/uneconomic display, as what we are witnessing here? NRT is supposed to be the international gateway to the capital of Japan??? And this has been going on for 40 years??? Fck me!!

And what about all the bureaucratic intervention in the field of pricing and ticket distribution??

I believe JL and NH have actually long tried to maintain this status-quo, in an effort to protect their business model and their profits. Well, profits... Anyway: considering the substantial premiums that almost any airline that flies into NRT seems to be able to be charging off their customers, and in light of the massive losses JL (and NH) have been incurring, it now seems as if they both have primarily been protecting their competitors' (instead of their own) profits!!!

Clearly, this is a broken business model. It is outdated and archaic indeed.

Not to mention the airports: compared to Japan's (equally very corrupt, yet a lot more efficient) railway facilities, especially NRT and KIX are a complete joke. Remember, this is the international gateway to Japan and not Laos or Cambodia we are talking about here. Frankly, everytime I go through it, NRT is beginning to look more and more outdated to me...

It's just hard for me (as an outsider who really loves to visit the country) to understand why you, and many other (mostly older and/or traditional) people in Japan continue to deny this blatant/urgent need for a massive overhaul of Japan's airline industry. This situation is really hurting the Japanese economy, its citizens and its businesses.

Besides, JL is 16 BILLION USD in debt. It is now financing this debt at an annual rate of 50,6% (up from 30.4% this morning) on its outstanding corporate bonds.

Look at the pics above about NRT ...

How can you even expect this to go on forever?

How can anyone even expect JL to survive and not be liquidated??

The present situation is clearly unsustainable !!

Kind rgds,

.

PS. Don't put too much hope on the Transportation Minister either... same thing happened with SN, SR, RG, etc. The poor guy is just putting on a political show, displaying how upset he is and how he is really trying to do everything possible to salvage the company. In the end however, there is just no other solution available to him than to allow for the complete liquidation of the company. Anything else would be a complete waste of money, and of political opportunity!!

PPS. FYI: some time ago I was personally involved in the unwinding (liquidated creditor meetings) of some of the former (liquidated) SR/SN's industrial undertakings, some of which had been sold at the very last minute, only for (some of) these sales to be rewinded later in court. Let me tell you: most - if not all - JL's creditors would be completely crazy not to pursue an operational halt of all operations (with proper inventories, clearly marked off responsibilities and accountabilities, and with a complete resetting of the ledgers), before ever allowing for a restart of part of the airline's operations. There's also the problem of some of the leases on some of the planes: it clearly is in the best interest of the leasing companies to repossess their 'aeronefs', or at least have them return to Japan before they can be impounded elsewhere... JL is too sick to survive, and it simply cannot go on like this. I am pretty sure there are plenty of bad surprises / hidden corpses hanging all over the company. Plus, its business model is completely broken. It's not just the debt. Bankruptcy protection or any direct American intervention or pseudo-investments are not offering any real long term prospects either. It's not as if AA or DL are willing to take over the company's balance sheet. All they are interested in are the landing slots (will probably require some serious - time consuming - renegotiating of certain bilateral air services and ATI agreements) and maybe the airline's FFP, which are now chattel. No: JL first needs to die off completely, before it can ever - maybe - be reborn again.

Last edited by maeharasmuse; Jan 7, 2010 at 7:48 pm
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 10:41 pm
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by maeharasmuse
What's your point? That's not what ordinary citizens and businesses are looking for in the 2010's
What? I just said that I like Japan's air transport system because of its reliability, on-time flights, civilized airports, polite airline personnel, reasonable security procedures, and reasonable -- yes, reasonable -- fares.

You think that's not what citizens and businesses want? Then what do they want?

I've lived here for 14 years and know plenty of frequent flyers, and I know not a single person who harbors the hatred of the Japanese air transport system that you seem to have.
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 11:01 pm
  #43  
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I agree that Japan's transportation system is very good. Especially Air Transport.

I have only been delayed once on a ITM-HND flight a couple of years ago when I was completing a segment run for Sapphire status.

Anyways JAL needs to liquidate. I find no hope to save JL. If they liquidate then they can stop paying out 年金! That alone will save JL tons of money. Just change the name to something like Japan International Airlines. Then it won't change much. or just use Jalways.

倒産 is their answer to restart JL.
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 11:29 pm
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Originally Posted by fumitani
Just change the name to something like Japan International Airlines. Then it won't change much. or just use Jalways.
Would JAL be in this kind of mess without the JAS merge? Maybe having a divorce in this unhappy marriage is what JAL needs
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 11:39 pm
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http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...atestheadlines

The Nikkei reported Friday afternoon that the government favors the use of court-led bankruptcy protection for JAL, and will make a decision as early as Jan. 12, adding that the airline will file a petition with the Tokyo District court under the Corporate Rehabilitation Law around Jan. 19.
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