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Coronavirus Update: Travel Ban extends to entire country

Coronavirus Update: Travel Ban extends to entire country

Old Mar 18, 20, 2:34 pm
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The entire Italy has been on lockdown for a week and their numbers are just climbing upwards. They recorded their largest number of new cases as well as deaths today, according to worldometer. They have almost the same amount of deaths as China with less than half the amount of cases (if China is giving accurate count).

Can anyone explain to me why the lockdown doesn't seem to be working? And don't tell me its because it was too late because forcing everyone to stay home should have curbed it within a few days no matter how widespread. Maybe because people are not abiding would be the answer but after seeing the numbers climb for a few days they should have been scared into compliance and the numbers would drop. Its insane to see how their numbers are jumping up daily.

I used to travel to Italy a lot (twice a year) and haven't been for quite a number of years. My parents still go there annually but who knows if they can go this summer being they are 60+. I love the country especially Florence and Venice and was considering a family trip with my kids for this year, however I shudder every day when I see the case numbers and amount of deaths going up.
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Old Mar 18, 20, 2:54 pm
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Originally Posted by friedablass View Post
The entire Italy has been on lockdown for a week and their numbers are just climbing upwards. They recorded their largest number of new cases as well as deaths today, according to worldometer. They have almost the same amount of deaths as China with less than half the amount of cases (if China is giving accurate count).

Can anyone explain to me why the lockdown doesn't seem to be working? And don't tell me its because it was too late because forcing everyone to stay home should have curbed it within a few days no matter how widespread. Maybe because people are not abiding would be the answer but after seeing the numbers climb for a few days they should have been scared into compliance and the numbers would drop. Its insane to see how their numbers are jumping up daily.

I used to travel to Italy a lot (twice a year) and haven't been for quite a number of years. My parents still go there annually but who knows if they can go this summer being they are 60+. I love the country especially Florence and Venice and was considering a family trip with my kids for this year, however I shudder every day when I see the case numbers and amount of deaths going up.
One week is nothing. There were numerous people, probably tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands already infected by the time they finally locked it down. Those people are finally going into stage 3 of the virus and many in critical condition with no available medical help. The authorities are only treating people who they think will make it, which means if you're old or sick from a pre-existing condition, they let you die. Fact. Bodies are stacking up. Doctors are sick, medical workers sick in the thousands. The numbers nwill continue to rise until they are all dead or recovered.

The below is from worldometer regarding Italy:
  • COVID-19 has infected 2,629 health workers, or 8.3% of the total (more than twice the percentage in China), as of yesterday March 17 [source]
  • In Bergamo (Lombardy region), 118 out of about 600 family doctors (20%) have been infected, and a 65-year-old doctor has died [source]
  • Today, a 57-year-old doctor has died: he was the secretary of the Federation of General Practitioners of Lodi [source]
  • A week ago, a 67-year-old family doctor, president of the Varese Medical Association, had died [source]
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Old Mar 18, 20, 8:52 pm
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Originally Posted by Global Adventurer View Post
One week is nothing. There were numerous people, probably tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands already infected by the time they finally locked it down. Those people are finally going into stage 3 of the virus and many in critical condition with no available medical help. The authorities are only treating people who they think will make it, which means if you're old or sick from a pre-existing condition, they let you die. Fact. Bodies are stacking up. Doctors are sick, medical workers sick in the thousands. The numbers nwill continue to rise until they are all dead or recovered.

The below is from worldometer regarding Italy:
  • COVID-19 has infected 2,629 health workers, or 8.3% of the total (more than twice the percentage in China), as of yesterday March 17 [[url=https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/18/news/coronavirus_in_vigore_il_decreto_cura-italia_aumentano_i_contagi-251584599/]source]
  • In Bergamo (Lombardy region), 118 out of about 600 family doctors (20%) have been infected, and a 65-year-old doctor has died [[url=https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/generale/2020/03/17/news/coronavirus_bergamo-251569887/]source]
  • Today, a 57-year-old doctor has died: he was the secretary of the Federation of General Practitioners of Lodi [[url=http://www.ansa.it/canale_saluteebenessere/notizie/sanita/2020/03/18/coronavirus-morto-il-segretario-della-federazione-dei-medici-di-lodi_9c0a5f1e-e938-4308-bd05-01486266df84.html]source]
  • A week ago, a 67-year-old family doctor, president of the Varese Medical Association, had died [[url=https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2020/03/11/coronavirus-morto-il-medico-roberto-stella-era-il-presidente-dellordine-dei-medici-di-varese/5732708/]source]
Wow, that's really sad . So basically boils down to a breakdown of the medical system (which the US is trying their best to avoid). I saw all that info regarding Italy on Worldometer - very dismal...

I guess we will keep watching to see how this plays out before making any plans. Thanks.
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Old Mar 18, 20, 10:18 pm
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Originally Posted by friedablass View Post
Wow, that's really sad . So basically boils down to a breakdown of the medical system (which the US is trying their best to avoid). I saw all that info regarding Italy on Worldometer - very dismal...

I guess we will keep watching to see how this plays out before making any plans. Thanks.
And the crazy part is, I read somewhere that Italy is #2 on the list of having the best health/medical care and the U.S. is like around #25😳
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Old Mar 18, 20, 10:25 pm
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Originally Posted by Global Adventurer View Post
And the crazy part is, I read somewhere that Italy is #2 on the list of having the best health/medical care and the U.S. is like around #25😳
Yikes! That's not very reassuring 😱!

Hope everyone stays safe and healthy wherever they are. Looking forward to the day this whole saga will be buried in the dustbin of history (and we can go back to traveling the world!)
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Old Mar 19, 20, 4:25 am
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Originally Posted by friedablass View Post
The entire Italy has been on lockdown for a week and their numbers are just climbing upwards. They recorded their largest number of new cases as well as deaths today, according to worldometer. They have almost the same amount of deaths as China with less than half the amount of cases (if China is giving accurate count).

Can anyone explain to me why the lockdown doesn't seem to be working? And don't tell me its because it was too late because forcing everyone to stay home should have curbed it within a few days no matter how widespread.
Here’s what happened in Spain at the time of their restricting movements and then lock downs. What we are seeing In Italy right now corresponds to the time when Italy was implementing the same (or very similar measures).

When movement restrictions were rumoured and then announced, that unleashed a LOT of movement, people were desperate to move themselves, their families, to wherever it was they felt best place to ride out a period in quarantine.
Italy did not have a preview from another “peer” Country with information the general population would accept as relevant to themselves (other countries have been looking to Italy and yet they still struggle). The lockdowns would have seemed exaggerated to many (even the British PM yesterday in a National Address said “No” when asked if people ignoring social-distancing advice were immoral).
This massive spike in movement meant a massive spike in infection spread as everyone who had moved to another area then had to go shopping and stock up, whilst mixing with locals from these less affected areas who were also stocking their kitchen cupboards.

From this perspective, lockdown measures where there is non-compliance (and British modellers build in a 30% figure for non-compilers - makes me furious that Boris gave them the wink and validated their decisions) will inevitably increase transmission before they can reduce them. And because Italians had not accepted precedence (the experience in East Asia didn’t seem applicable to them, just as other countries have not assimilated Italy’s as relevant to them) too many people were not-complying, eventually the enormity of what is happening and the consequences of it became clear. But this is that part that never features in any graphs - when did poo get real enough for the individuals involved for them to see the sense in co-operating. One that realisation sets in, the lock downs then truly become effective.
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Old Mar 21, 20, 12:46 pm
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Originally Posted by friedablass View Post
Wow, that's really sad . So basically boils down to a breakdown of the medical system (which the US is trying their best to avoid). I saw all that info regarding Italy on Worldometer - very dismal...

I guess we will keep watching to see how this plays out before making any plans. Thanks.
However, COVID-19 in mainland China was concentrated in Wuhan/Hubei, so it might be more informative to compare the numbers and percentages only from Wuhan or Hubei to those of northern Italy.
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Old Mar 21, 20, 9:43 pm
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist View Post
However, COVID-19 in mainland China was concentrated in Wuhan/Hubei, so it might be more informative to compare the numbers and percentages only from Wuhan or Hubei to those of northern Italy.
My apologies, but I'm not sure why that would be more informative, I'd appreciate if you can please explain.

Italy, very unfortunately, keeps on posting record breaking new cases and new deaths every day as their lockdown continues. According to worldometer 3/21 6557 new cases and 793 new deaths. It just makes me second guess this whole complete lockdown business and would say, let's focus our resources on isolating the elderly and immunocompromised population. But that's not a discussion for this thread.

Would just love to see Italy climbing out of this black hole already.
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Old Mar 22, 20, 4:01 pm
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Originally Posted by friedablass View Post
My apologies, but I'm not sure why that would be more informative, I'd appreciate if you can please explain.

Italy, very unfortunately, keeps on posting record breaking new cases and new deaths every day as their lockdown continues. According to worldometer 3/21 6557 new cases and 793 new deaths. It just makes me second guess this whole complete lockdown business and would say, let's focus our resources on isolating the elderly and immunocompromised population. But that's not a discussion for this thread.

Would just love to see Italy climbing out of this black hole already.

They locked down March 9 - 13 days ago. The average time from exposure to hospitalization is 12 days. That's AVERAGE so there's a distribution around that. What we're seeing is the result of people who were exposed BEFORE the lock down took effect. If there hadn't been a lock down, there would be many more people infected today. That's what the lock down has delivered. Also, the response in Lombardy was a cluster while Veneto did extensive testing and contact tracing and has fared much better. Bottom line, looking at the last 13 days for affirmation of the lock down policy makes little sense - the proof in that pudding is yet to come - probably in the next week or two. I'd hold off second guessing until then (although I'm not sure what one gains from second guessing - strikes me the more valuable result is learning).
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Old Mar 22, 20, 8:20 pm
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Originally Posted by JMN57 View Post
They locked down March 9 - 13 days ago. The average time from exposure to hospitalization is 12 days. That's AVERAGE so there's a distribution around that. What we're seeing is the result of people who were exposed BEFORE the lock down took effect. If there hadn't been a lock down, there would be many more people infected today. That's what the lock down has delivered. Also, the response in Lombardy was a cluster while Veneto did extensive testing and contact tracing and has fared much better. Bottom line, looking at the last 13 days for affirmation of the lock down policy makes little sense - the proof in that pudding is yet to come - probably in the next week or two. I'd hold off second guessing until then (although I'm not sure what one gains from second guessing - strikes me the more valuable result is learning).
Thanks for the explanation. Appreciate that.

Ok, so no second guessing for me . I will wait patiently another couple of weeks to hopefully see Italy come out of this alive and kicking, albeit somewhat bruised. Just very painful to watch those numbers in the meantime....
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Old Mar 23, 20, 10:21 am
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Originally Posted by friedablass View Post
Thanks for the explanation. Appreciate that.

Ok, so no second guessing for me . I will wait patiently another couple of weeks to hopefully see Italy come out of this alive and kicking, albeit somewhat bruised. Just very painful to watch those numbers in the meantime....
Let's hope. We have a house in Tuscany and had planned to be there late April/early May - clearly that's not happening. We're hoping its possible to be there in July & August. We're in contact with friends in Italy and they are all hunkered down. In our town (which is small ~8000 people) there have been 3-4 fatalities and life is a combination of sad, nervous and quiet. The deaths have been among the elderly. I emailed over the weekend with a friend in Milano and he says the only sound you hear is sirens. The numbers are tragic and I hope the compliance with the lock down has been good enough to knock the numbers down.
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Old Mar 24, 20, 8:14 am
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Wasn't very smart to announced the lockdown in Northern Italy in advance. I'm sure thousands of infected fled to other parts of Italy or Europe.
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Old Mar 24, 20, 8:58 pm
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Originally Posted by mcbg1 View Post
Wasn't very smart to announced the lockdown in Northern Italy in advance. I'm sure thousands of infected fled to other parts of Italy or Europe.
It wasn't announced in advance but as soon as they thought it was necessary. People's reaction was what one would expect from us Mediterraneans. Talking about that, there are reports in Greece that people are even renting their dogs to others so that these can legally leave their house: walking one's pet is allowed (se non e' vero, e' ben trovato )
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Old Mar 25, 20, 7:44 pm
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Originally Posted by JMN57 View Post
Bottom line, looking at the last 13 days for affirmation of the lock down policy makes little sense - the proof in that pudding is yet to come - probably in the next week or two.
And it seems like maybe, just maybe, that is starting to happen. :fingers crossed:

Originally Posted by KLouis View Post
Talking about that, there are reports in Greece that people are even renting their dogs to others so that these can legally leave their house: walking one's pet is allowed (se non e' vero, e' ben trovato )
Hilarious!
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Old Mar 25, 20, 8:26 pm
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Originally Posted by iapetus View Post
...Hilarious!
Even more: Napolitan!
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