Coronavirus Update: Travel Ban extends to entire country
Mar 1, 2020, 5:52 pm
#31
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Very interesting graph, thank you Global Adventurer, means that all will flatten out in about three weeks in Italy.
I would be more worried about the US, where so many people hesitate going to see a doctor given the high cost and the lack of insurance. Health should be a human right and in Italy it is, which can make us optimistic.
I think we can safely plan anything in Europe after Easter, but should be aware of something big to come from the US.
I would be more worried about the US, where so many people hesitate going to see a doctor given the high cost and the lack of insurance. Health should be a human right and in Italy it is, which can make us optimistic.
I think we can safely plan anything in Europe after Easter, but should be aware of something big to come from the US.
Mar 1, 2020, 7:41 pm
#32
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Mar 1, 2020, 7:56 pm
#33
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February 29, 2020 Reconsider travel to Italy due to a recent outbreak of COVID-19 Level 4 – Do Not Travel to: Lombardy and Veneto due to the level of community transmission of the virus and imposition of local quarantine procedures. Country-Specific Information: Italy has confirmed cases of COVID-19 within its borders. The CDC has issued a Level 3 Travel Health Alert for Italy, recommending travelers practice enhanced precautions. Entry ...
Mar 1, 2020, 9:11 pm
#35
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Thanks, ckendall and Global Adventurer! I'm a little confused, though. The CDC only mentions the nation-wide level 3 status for Italy; I'm not seeing a level 4 status for northern Italy from the CDC. And it looks like you have to drill down a bit to get the regional level 4 notice for Lombardy and Veneto from the State Department. Obviously, the State Department and the CDC don't have to coordinate their warnings, but it does make me wonder if all of Italy is due for a general level 4 status from one or both.
Mar 2, 2020, 4:30 am
#36
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Thanks, ckendall and Global Adventurer! I'm a little confused, though. The CDC only mentions the nation-wide level 3 status for Italy; I'm not seeing a level 4 status for northern Italy from the CDC. And it looks like you have to drill down a bit to get the regional level 4 notice for Lombardy and Veneto from the State Department. Obviously, the State Department and the CDC don't have to coordinate their warnings, but it does make me wonder if all of Italy is due for a general level 4 status from one or both.
On edit: The Dept of State advisories override CDCs. Whatever the state department post, is what all travelers need to use for traveling purposes, regardless if there are diseases present or not.
Mar 4, 2020, 3:29 am
#37
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The numbers involved are exponential, on a log scale from 1 to 10 to 100 to 1,000 and so on. Italy is a MUCH smaller country than China yet it’s following the same curve, and these are actual cases, not percentages. It’s almost like looking at the Japanese Earthquake measuring system and discussing how it tends to “flatten out” at M9 - but that’s overly, overly simplified. There is much, much more to this, but this reaction to the graph has knocked me for six.
Mar 4, 2020, 3:55 am
#38
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The quick increase at the beginning is most possibly due to "overscreening" in Italy after they have been sleeping for more than one month.
Mar 4, 2020, 4:24 am
#39
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Your calculation is of course right and by "flatten" out I mean that with a peak around 20 March, the number of new cases will decrease. There could be easily 20 - 30 k cases EU wide by then with close to 1000 death. This is less than people dying on EU roads within the same time frame.
The quick increase at the beginning is most possibly due to "overscreening" in Italy after they have been sleeping for more than one month.
The quick increase at the beginning is most possibly due to "overscreening" in Italy after they have been sleeping for more than one month.
Mar 5, 2020, 10:31 am
#41
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I've read that scientists have discovered that there is now two strains of Coronavirus, and one is is more severe. Looks like maybe Italy has the worse strain?
Mar 5, 2020, 10:49 am
#42
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And right now they have at least 148 deaths! That's massive for the size of their country in such a short period of time.
I've read that scientists have discovered that there is now two strains of Coronavirus, and one is is more severe. Looks like maybe Italy has the worse strain?
I've read that scientists have discovered that there is now two strains of Coronavirus, and one is is more severe. Looks like maybe Italy has the worse strain?
Mar 5, 2020, 10:55 am
#43
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Not that bad actually for a population of 60 million people, with almost a quarter of it being elderly. Not to count their current government and outdated health care system. More than 148 people die in Italy everyday from many other causes which could even be preventable.
Mar 5, 2020, 10:57 am
#44
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Not that bad actually for a population of 60 million people, with almost a quarter of it being elderly. Not to count their current government and outdated health care system. More than 148 people die in Italy everyday from many other causes which could even be preventable.
Mar 5, 2020, 11:12 am
#45
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That is very dramatic and there is treatment for this disease. Doesn't mean everyone will survive it sadly but most people will. Go on and enjoy your life now instead of panicking over this.
