It doesn't matter what the next Hilton promo is, while it does matter what the next IHG promo is.

1) IHG promos are so complicated that there's no way of knowing whether they will want me to stay at 5 HIXs or 5 CPs over 5 weekends in 5 different countries, or something completely different. This makes it difficult to decide on IHG bookings without knowing any details.

With Hilton, you can expect that all your stays will count for something.

2) Hilton promos generally apply to existing bookings, with IHG you can't tell, again incentivising booking with Hilton without knowing what the promo will be.

3) Status members get solid benefits at Hiltons, not so much at IHG. So the main reason to choose an IHG property over Hilton is because the IHG promo gives me almost enough points from one paid night to stay another night.

Assuming it's Accelerate again, if my Q3 targets suck, there's no reason to book any stays at IHG except where the rate is significantly cheaper than Hilton (obviously considering other chains and independent hotels too). In 2017 I had good targets so fulfilled all of them, in 2018 my Q1 targets sucked so I didn't stay at IHG at all, and Q2 was OK so I did half of them.

4) The Hilton promo is probably going to be double points again. Double points is basically the new normal now, and it's only worth an extra 2-3% back on the money spent. This is not really enough to make me choose Hilton where I wouldn't have otherwise chosen it. In other words, if I think that a prepaid rate available now is good, I might as well pay it in case it jumps by 5-10% as the possibility of a better promo that would make it worth paying more isn't likely.

Therefore I'm quite happy to book Hiltons now, and in any case flexible rates can always be changed if IHG does come up with something good.

See what : D ! has said in his post. But I would like to add few more points:
1, The current Hilton promo is extended to middle of September. So it will cover my stay in September.
2, Hilton counts award stay and nights if the next promo is X,000 points per stay/night (which is highly likely). It is much easier to stick with Hilton. Even if the promo is not X,000 points per stay/night but double or trible points, I know what I can get.
3, I decide my travel plan, not IHG. For the places I am going in later this year I know where to stay and I need to book them now to lock in some good rates. So I need to consider my own benefits not IHG's. If IHG can not decide what they want to promote I am not going to wait. I need to find something suitable for me.
4, With the IHG credit card, there is no need to be loyal to IHG any more. I have been upgraded to Club floor on several of my recent IC stays but they refused to give Club access or even free breakfasts although they are rightly to do so under T&C. But I have a choice in travelling. So I am going to maintain my Diamond with Hilton now. Vote with my feet and wallet.

Frankly my patient with IHG has ran out. Being over 14 years of top member (Mostly PA or SA when Spire is introduced and few years of RA in between) consistently, I just need a change to have a solid elite benefits for a while.

You're both missing one major point. During just this calendar year, Hilton has run one multiplier night-based promotion (the current double points) and one flat-earning stay-based promotion (Points Unlimited) Without knowing whether the next promotion is stay-based on night-based, and without knowing whether it's flat-earning or a multiplier, how do you maximize the return on the promotion by booking now? :confused:

A stay-based promotion with a flat earning is maximized by booking cheap hotels and hotel hopping. A double points promotion is maximized by booking expensive hotels, and no need to hotel hop.

So it's because I tailor my stays to whether a promotion is stay-based or night-based, and whether it's flat or a multiplier, that I don't understand why you wouldn't care that you don't know yet what the last Hilton promotion of the year will be.

In other words, I was asking why you're so sure that the next Hilton promotion will match your stay patterns well, because to me there a great difference between what stays worked with Points Unlimited versus what stays work with Double Points.

Of course, maybe these are the only the hotel programs you guys use, and so no IHG by default has to mean Hilton? Me, I belong to lots of hotel programs, and "follow the promos", and so I might change what program I focus on each quarter-or-whatever based on the promos at all the programs I belong to (that have hotels where I need to stay). I never max out IHG Accelerate anyway, (beyond the fewest-nights way of getting the achievement task) because that's the only way to get "easy" Accelerate tasks each time. So I'm always looking somewhere else, but I don't know which hotel programs I'll give most attention to until I know what promos each one has.

Meanwhile, if you like the status benefits of Hilton, the second best are Hyatt and Marriott/Starwood, and IHG is far behind all 3 of those in elite status benefits. (And gosh, IHG is even behind Radisson Rewards in elite benefits, even if Radisson is far behind the others I listed.) So if it's elite status benefits that you care about, I don't see why you're staying more at IHG than the minimum required by an "easy" Accelerate each time. If your Accelerate tasks "suck", it's probably because you've been (paid) staying at IHG "too much", despite not getting any status benefits.

with due respect, everyone has different travel pattern and travel needs. I am happy with dual membership with IHG and Hilton. I do not chase points for the sake of chasing points. I choose hotels that suits me and other benefits like location.

you do not need to know the next promotion of Hilton yet it is safe to stay with them because you know you don't have tasks that would surprise you once revealed like IHG. And that is the point you are missing.

the second point is that we all have different travel pattern. I cruise a lot besides my limited hotel stays. That means I really do not have time to do mattress run. IHG and Hilton fits in my travel pattern. I don't need 20 hotel loyalty cards to fill my ego. One major and one supplement programmes are enough. But I do respect your way of life. It is just we are all different and there is no single way of doing things. And that is why accelerate is great in some way.

I only ever stay 1 or 2 nights anyway, and I only book if the price is right. I use IHG, Hilton and hotels.com rewards.

Hoops, I stuck by the word mattress run here :D
Haven't heard of say that for a time :D
I must say that I know NO PROMOTION of any hotel chains this year that has even made me think of mattress run at all. All have been so meeh that I have only cherrypicked what fits in to my travel pattern and been happy to get some additional points if so, otherwise not even planning much for the promotions, so meager they have been in 2018. Well, understandably the economy and room occupancies have been high enough so that hotel chains need no real promotions to attract people.
Life goes on. Next recession comes and there will be lots of cheap rooms and good promotions :D

I guess you don't follow Wyndham Rewards, with lots of cheap brands and where every redemption (at every brand) is exactly 15000 points, and so a promo like this:

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wynd...asterpass.html

means that a couple $45 budget motel "stays" (whether you need them or not) is a free night anywhere in the Wyndham system?

As an aside be careful of that promotion, it's only open to US customers and also there's a threshold by which it doesn't count as a stay, got caught out by that in the last promo after taking my life in my hands in a Vegas motel for nothing...