sam007

guys - didn't know where to post this so sorry for choosing a wrong forum but hoping someone can help me with this analysis and choosing between the options for 3 adults JFK-BOM

Option 1 - r/t on chase travel - approx $7000 or 475k chase ultimate reward points (kuwait air outbound, saudia return where I know jeddah airport is bad). With sapphire reserve, I'm getting 1.5 for my points

Option 2 - o/w on chase travel - $5000 or 340k chase ultimate reward points + 210k Aadvantage points (kuwait air outbouhnd, etihad return)

If you value UR at 2.2 points and AA at 1.4, the above options come very close in what you are spending. I do have quite a few AA miles built up in my accounts and after seeing them devalue year over year, I am attracted more towards option 2

Thanks

garykung

You seriously need a calculator - Option 1 is a no-brainer.

Regardless - Option 1 is the relative cheaper option.

FWIW - the valuation does not really work as the value is based on how you use it, not some bloggers who claim how much it is worth. In your case - UR is worth about $0.0147 in both options.

Option 2 is simply an option for you to spend more without any purposes.

sam007

well the 1.47 above is really 1.5 since sapphire reserve gets you 50% extra on booking travel through their website. I'm going by what the bloggers put out 2.2 vs 1.4 because I know CHase UR can be used for so many more things which Aadvantange cannot be so sort of looking at future opportunity cost too. How are you calculating that Option 1 is the much better deal

Anybody else care to comment?

Thx

garykung

$7,000 worth of travel (or I should say $7,125 to be more accurate) costs 700K UR originally. With the 50% bonus, it is 475K. So your original prices has already reflected the 50% bonus.

The $0.022 in valuation is based on mileage transfer from UR to an airline program. And then the converted miles were used to book high valued tickets. There is nothing special when you book your travel with the UR portal.

With Option 1, the average cost per direction is ~$3,500. With Option 2, the cost is $5,000 already. One-way ticket with international travel is not advised unless necessary.

dukerau

As mentioned above, why would you value UR at 2.2 cents when you clearly are getting 1.5 cent value? Converting to dollar values is mucking up the analysis. The question is simple - do you want to trade 210k AA (+some taxes/fees) for 135k UR? Or, put another way, are UR worth 55% more than AA? You can insert an adjustment to reflect your subjective valuation on flying Etihad instead of Saudia, but that's the basic way to look at this decision.

sam007

I'm valuing the points not just based on the transaction above but on future potential of when I may need them. In my mind, AA can be used for just flights (I rarely fly domestic and international pickings have gotten slim). I have found far better availability transferring chase to united and using them. In my mind, without going with what the bloggers say, I perceive that UR should be at least 30% more valuable than AA miles. They can be used for hotels, cashed out and of course flights

A wrench has been thrown into my calculations though - flying with a lap child is $800 extra when booking a reward seat and only $300 when booking revenue so r/t is $1000 difference. I also just can't settle that paying good money and landing with family at a dis-organized airport like jeddah where folks could be on the floor in the lounge because of lack of space irks me. I may just bite the bullet and book emirates r/t for 9k or 6k chase UR. However in the interim till my inbound AA trip hold expires this weekend, I'll keep trying to get AA outbound as well

Thx

dukerau

If you really valued UR at 2.2 cents, you would never consider redeeming them for 1.5 cents. I don't blame you for not valuing them at 2.2 cents - I don't either - but let's be honest about it.

Have you already checked for award availability on Singapore, Air France/KLM, Delta, Qatar, Cathay Pacific, BA, Virgin Atlantic, and any combination of those, AA and Etihad (i.e., JFK-CDG using Flying Blue, then CDG-AUH-BOM using AA miles)?

sam007

JFK-CDG using Flying Blue, then CDG-AUH-BOM using AA miles won't work since it too many stops with kids but I've checked the rest of the ones you list

sam007

alright here's the strategy I'm going to adopt. I already have business return on AA/etihad booked. For outbound, I'm going to book coach on AA/Etihad and will keep checking twice a day if there are any seats that open up in business. AA allows free changes if you upgrade even if it's with another partner airline (as long as source and destination city stay the same). Simultaneously I also have alerts set up on expertflyer if something on united/lufthansa open up and if it does, I'll incur the cancelation charges with AA (Maybe about $250). Worst-case if nothing really opens up, I'll take the ride and see how bad can it be flying coach for 20 hours with kids. Honesty I don't think they'll mind it too much, it's just more company, it's mostly us that make a fuss

Any other ideas to supplement above strategy? What if one seat becomes available in business? Wondering if i should take that for my wife although I know we can't keep swapping seats to get rest, airlines don't allow that right?

garykung

Then your mind has some serious problems.

Bloggers' valuation of miles/points is based on their use of the miles/points. Still, most of us claim they are not accurate because bloggers strategically pick travel routes that can maximize the value. On the other hand, a typical consumer, like you, won't get the same value because the said consumer travels with a purpose. For instance, bloggers pick routes with ample premium seats and redeem it to show the value, but a soccer dad/mom can only redeem SFO-EUR because their child is studying in UO (University of Oregon). Hence, the difference in value.

Your mindset has a fundamental issue because you fail to materialize the use.

Sure - no one cares (really) how you value anything. The question is unlike investment securities, UR can't be sold. So the actual value of UR is based on the opportunity cost when you use it, i.e. what you need to pay in cash at the time. Once you have used it, the value is set.

While the best value for AA miles is flight redemption, AA miles can be used in several different occasions.

A bad use of miles/points. End of story.

sam007

gary - i do tend to agree with a lot of your points. I moved ahead using all AA miles for outbound/inbound but outbound is coach. Do you folks know what are the best days to call the operator, Etihad to book a lap infant fare? As i understand it's based on the highest class fare and wondering if that's cheaper on a weekend

dukerau

This is a commonly mis-characterized summary of AA's policy. An exception relevant to your case - you can't change between a oneworld award (e.g., Cathay + AA) and a non-alliance partner award (e.g., Etihad + AA), or vice versa. If you book, say, Etihad economy now, you could upgrade to Etihad Business for no change fee, but you couldn't change to Qatar or Cathay without a change fee.

With that caveat, I like your strategy.

sam007

you are right and the agent didn't bother correcting me. So basically I can change within oneworld like from cathay to qatar but not tofrom etihad